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Home Field Advantage

This blog links to another blog that argues that in the AABBBAA World Series format there is no Home Field Advantage, and refutes it. This doesn’t seem, on the face of it, to be a very controversial opinion, but some nifty Java work leads to some interesting discussion.

One point that isn’t addressed is noise in the actual data because the Home Field Advantage has historically been distributed randomly. Give it to the lesser of two teams half the time and the actual results are likely to be less definitive, especially given the small sample size.

The big question? Why have teams that were trailing 3-2 won the sixth game 63 percent of the time? Might it be because the leading team adopted Houston’s strategy in the NLCS this year, and held it’s better pitcher until game seven?

It’s a thought.

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Yahoo! News – Bush, Kerry to Appear on ‘SportsCenter’

I’m going to be watching, I guess, but this summary of highlights fills me with despair. For instance, we know that W. wanted to be Baseball Commissioner, was rebuffed and decided to become governor of Texas instead.

We all know that except in the narrowest of circumstances that public financing of stadiums is a bad idea, yet Kerry for some reason is supporting it.

Bush finds baseball therapeutic?

I’m awfully glad the Red Sox finally won. And didn’t you find the post-game interviews with Henry and Werner incredibly bloodless? These guys have all the soul of margarine, were gifted by Commissioner Bud after significant personal mistrials as owners (as, oddly enough, was last year’s World Series winning owner Jeffrey Loria), and perhaps actually rose to the occasion by making it clear that they were the outsiders, the glory went to the long suffering fans.

When I see Henry only one word comes to mind, Powder.

As for this team, it seemed coming into the playoffs it was probably the best team in the league. It’s path to becoming AL champtions was odd, but the result wasn’t surprising. But the margin wasn’t huge so a break here or there was likely to make the difference.

The amazing thing was the Red Sox snuffing of the Cards offense after game one. Given the names (Schilling, Martinez, Lowe) that shouldn’t be that surprising, but given the circumstances it’s fairly amazing. But not incredible. Good pitchers win because they have good stuff, usually, but what makes them special is they can get by on less than good stuff.

Schilling with sutures, Martinez with extra rest (was that inning in game seven simply a way to get him more time?), Lowe when the chips are down.

Obviously it could all easily have gone the other way. That’s way it’s really great the Sox reversed the curse. Now only Cub fans have license to suffer. I’m rooting for them in ’05.

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Yahoo! Sports – MLB – Mild Cards

I’ve been reading some game summaries of Tuesday night’s game, and while there has been plenty of derision tossed Jeff Suppan’s way for his oh-so hurtful boner at third base, I haven’t seen anyone link it to the DH rule.

Suppan has pitched in the NL the last two years, but before that he played primarily in the AL. In his career he’s been on base 31 times in the regular season, apart from whatever fielders choices he may have grounded into. It’s likely he’s never been on third base before with nobody out.

This explanation doesn’t excuse Suppan’s blunder, but it is evidence of the deleterious effect the split-DH rule has on the game.

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Fantasy Sports – Allstar Stats – America’s Oldest and Best Rotisserie and Fantasy Sports Stat Service!

A roto glitch! It appears that Saturday’s suspended Minnesota Cleveland game fell into a void. It isn’t included in All Star Stats’ final reports, and the box score can’t be found at mlb.com (though Gamecast has it), espn.com or yahoo.com.

I know All Star Stats doesn’t have it, but you should check to see if your league got credit for a Lohse win, Sizemore and Phelps home runs, a Bartless steal, etc.

In the American Dream League the missing Lohse win, once accounted for, forced a tie for third place. But the Sizemore homer undid the tie.

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SOME CALZONE FOR DEREK

I haven’t spent enough time on the explosion of baseball blogs the past few years. Part of the problem is that bloggers who post all the time, if they have something interesting to say, are exhausting. And it’s hard to get in the habit of checking in on those that don’t post all the time. Managing blog subscriptions hasn’t clicked for me yet. All of which is to say that I’m not in the blog-reading habit, but I do wade in from time to time.

This site is topped by a gratuitously unappealing photo (tell me the flowered plate was accidental), cheeky attitude and generally smart posts. Like yesterday’s thumbnail of the NL West and Wild Card race (though I think it should be pointed out that Houston’s lead right now comes because they’ve played an extra game, and the situation could be called “a virtual tie,” as well). Because of the schedule they certainly do seem to be in the driver’s seat.

Check it out.