The Guide

Same Pitchers, Different Stats

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Same Pitchers Different Stats 2006

This is an excel file about 100K.

We’ve run this chart in the Guide in the past, when we’ve had an open page, and I had a request from a reader that I post it. Here’s what the caption said in the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2005:

ERA and Ratio do a decent job of describing what a pitcher did, but not necessarily everything about how well they did. While putting together the magazine we consistently look at the BB/9, K/9, and HR/9 metrics. These tell us how well a pitcher kept runners off base, got outs without the ball being put into play, and kept the ball in the park. These pitchers are ranked by their relative effectiveness in these three measures last year, from best to worst.

The other two columns show the opponents batting average against a pitcher on balls in play (HR and strikeouts are removed), and for all at bats. We’re less sure what to do with these, though a high AVG-BIP is thought to indicate that the pitcher had some bad luck. Have fun.

Looking at the results, it’s clear that comparisons between starters and relievers don’t have much validity. And with two 100 IP starters near the top of the chart, workload probably plays a part there, too.

Still, if Ben Sheets can stay healthy he clearly has his effectiveness back. He’s not going to be cheap but he could be a bargain.

Manny now more scary than scary good

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SportingNews.com – Brendan Roberts

When Brendan says that the TSN rankings have Manny Ramirez at No. 25 I thought, that’s silly. But I looked in the just-arrived Fantasy Baseball Guide and discovered that in our mock draft Manny was taken No. 30. And looking at the names that went ahead of him that doesn’t seem too far off the mark. Manny is an injury risk, he is getting older, he’s probably going to end up in Boston again (though he clearly doesn’t want to be), and he’s coming off a mildly down season. But assuming he makes it through spring training without any obvious physical problems, and that he could end up going anywhere from 12th to 35th, he’s a great pick at the low end of that range. And he might even prove to be a good one at the top end. Does that make him a sleeper?

The Official Matsuzaka Prediction Thread

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BBTF’s Newsblog Discussion

Somebody will average these all out, dropping the guy who’s predicting 29 wins (and a 1-0 loss on the last day of the season). I remember that last year around this time we were having similar discussions about Johjima (except we weren’t sure if his last name had an “h” or not). I’ve been working on an updated set of predictions for all players (not just positively valued ones) for a game mlb.com is putting out, and discovered a little too late that I didn’t have a Dice-K projection (he was far from signed when the magazine went to bed). So, here it is:

200 IP, 3.74 ERA, 17 wins, 9 losses, 55 walks, 180 strikeouts, 23 homers, 1.21 WHIP.

That’s a tweener, probably worth about $25 in an AL only league. I think he could be much better, but injury risk and the real chance that he’s not going to dominate would cause me not to chase him. I have him in the magazine at $14, but now that he’s signed and the adrenaline is flowing I’d go to $18 probably. Depending on what we see in spring training.

Fantasy Football: Draft Tips

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RotoRob

I’m not sure I should admit this, but I’m participating in my first fantasy football draft tonight. So, while looking for tips I came upon this pleasant advice from a guy named Andy at the site of a friend, Rob Blackstien, who has worked as editor and writer on both Fantasy Guides. I was worried about tracking Bye weeks, but Andy has made me a little less afraid. Now it’s time for a beer.

And, to be clear, Ask Rotoman will not become a fantasy football site (though you should check out the discussions at talk.askrotoman.com if you’re interested).

RotoRob

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A New Baseball (and other sports, too) blog.

Rob Blackstien has been writing and editing the Fantasy Baseball and Football Guides for a couple of years now, so I wasn’t surprised how well written and good looking his new site is. I’ve been travelling and I’ve also been surprised how often I’ve checked in just to get Rob’s take on the latest stories. Check it out, click some links, buy some stuff, and if you like Rotorob like I do, support a good writer who loves (and plays) baseball.

BBTF’s Game Chatter Discussion

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Cleveland 91-63 at Kansas City 52-101 7:10pm ET
In the Guide I wrote about Cleveland farmhand Jason Stanford: “He was arrested in September for disorderly conduct and resisting arrest, and then missed his court appearance. It’s too bad, since control was always one of his bests qualities.”

Today Stanford called the magazine’s publisher and said he hadn’t missed the court date. The Baseball Think Factory page above has links to Cleveland Plain Dealer stories about the original arrest (JS made disparaging comments to a man wearing a pink shirt, apparently, which led to a bit of a brawl) and the court announcing after Stanford apparently missed his court date that they’d written the wrong date on his appearance ticket. So it wasn’t his fault. The links don’t work, however, so I’m basing this on the postings on the BTF page.

I’m certainly sorry for drawing on the mistaken AP story originally and am happy to point out the error while wearing pink (actually salmon) slacks.

Major League Baseball : Rotoman’s Projections

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Major League Baseball

MLB.com has been running my player projections for the past five years, usually a set at the end of February and an update just before the start of the season. This year they asked for more categories (doubles, caught stealing, among others) and for a set at the end of January, which I delivered. And then nothing. I was scheduled to deliver an update the first week of March, but in all the busy-ness of things didn’t get to it until last week, when I also finally asked my editor what happened to the first set of projections.

It turns out they’re being used in a game. And now for the first time the MLB.com Rotoman projections are posted at mlb.com, along with bid values for 4×4, 5×5, and mixed leagues. There will be an update March 29, for posterity’s (and late drafters’) sake.

The Wrong Address

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I often wish I lived in a world where details didn’t matter much. But they do.

In January askrotoman.com moved from a very nice but underpowered host to a nice and powerful host (Dreamhost), and some email addresses and their forwards went missing.

Right now you can reach mlb@askrotoman.com (to ask questions) and peter@askrotoman.com (to ask questions and to comment on the Guide).

If you sent a message in calendar year 2006 and didn’t receive a reply, chances are this screw up is why. Please send again.

Peter

PLAYER TRACK

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PLAYER TRACK

This is a nifty piece of online software that comes with a price attached. You’ll have to decide if the early promise is worth the price, but I have a compulsive desire to make lists, and Playertrack.com certainly feeds that addiction. The site advertised in the Fantasy Baseball Guide this year, and we appreciate advertisers. What I’d like to see is a way to plug other sets of numbers into the mechanism, so you could analyze projections, or 2004 numbers, or three year averages. Even if you don’t want to pay it’s worth checking out for the Top 10 lists that come for free, which hint at what’s possible.

2005 Fantasy Guide is Out Now

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I’ve just added a picture of the front page of the magazine, which arrived in my hands yesterday, and which should be in stores on January 20th. Given the vagaries of the distribution business I’d suggest keeping an eye out about then, especially at Barnes and Noble and Wal-Mart, where we’ve usually had good distribution.

This year there are Cost Scans, showing what players cost, as well as the Earning Scans, for the past five years. This profit and loss information is so important, since it isn’t just what a player earns that makes him valuable, but what he cost.

No one else covers as many players as we do, which means The Guide (which is ordered alphabetically grouped as Hitters and Pitchers) is the one fantasy magazine you’ll find useful all season long.

This year magazine owners will find a web address inside which will take them to a page that includes updated price lists for 4×4, 5×5 and mixed leagues, extra value for draft prep.

There’s lots more, too, including strategy articles and stats and a mock draft with a pretty good list of brand name experts (Shandler, Ambrosius, Grey, Zola, Leibowitz, Berry, Schwartz, among others). And there are more than 300 Picks and Pans from those guys and also Alex Patton and Steve Moyer and Gene McCaffrey.

I hope you enjoy it.