One of the roto writing highlights this year was Nando DiFino’s Play Like the Pros column at ESPN. Given the task of covering the stultifying business of expert league waiver claims he found wit and insight by the barrelfuls. The season’s last entry is a compilation of what the rest of us had to say about our mostly miserable seasons. Not as witty or insightful perhaps, but a measure of what some of us think made or broke our teams this year.
Roto
Matt Berry Rocks!
Trade No. 3: Carl Crawford for Juan PierreOne gets tons of love and one gets no respect, but over the second half of the year, Juan Pierre is going to be the better fantasy player. I’m sorry. Continue to be the better fantasy player. You saw me mention Pierre briefly in last week’s newsletter but let’s put those numbers into even more of a perspective.
From June 1 through July 22:
Juan Pierre: 27 R, 24 SB, 0 HR, 12 RBI, .335 average
Carl Crawford: 32 R, 19 SB, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .278 averageThe power is better for Crawford, but it’s not significant in the grand scheme of things and that’s not why you have either guy. Otherwise, they are basically the same, with Pierre hitting over 50 points higher. You could get Pierre plus something else for your Carl Crawford and not suffer any drop-off at all. Again, we play with numbers, not names.
The words above are Matt Berry’s. Matt is a friend of mine. He was an annual contributor to the Guide until some scum sucking international conglomerate with the face of Mickey Mouse bought him off. Good for him. Weezil.
Or is that weasel?
The point here is that in his weekly newsletter to ESPN fantasy players he actually suggests taking Juan Pierre over Carl Crawford for the last two months of the season. And he does this without mentioning that Crawford is hurt.
But nobody knows how hurt Crawford is. He won the Devil Rays game today with a homer. His MRI was good enough. If Crawford misses significant time in the last two months because of injury then Pierre is certainly the better choice. And that could happen.
But when we’re considering names versus stats, Crawford is a star, Pierre is a role player. Unless you know something, the right answer is go with the star.
PS. Matt’s other example, going for Brandon Phillips over Derek Jeter, is similar. But closer. Phillips is a potential star aborning, so casting aside Jeter isn’t ridiculous, though it may not work out. For now, Phillips is the hot hand, Jeter the very steady one.
Depending on your situation, you can decide.
Starting A Keeper League
Roto Authority Fantasy Baseball
Very nice intro to a subject that should be of interest to all serious roto players. I especially like the relationship tips, which are key to establishing a long-term league that works.
Scoresheet Baseball Bests and Worsts
I met Jeff Barton, who invented and runs Scoresheet Baseball with his brother, out in Arizona last November at Ron Shandler’s shindig at the AFL. Jeff invited some of us to play in a Scoresheet league this year. Over the years the most vocal proponents of a fantasy game that is not Rotisserie have certainly been Scoresheet players, who love the game for the way it reflects the shape of real baseball games and the shape of the real baseball season. So I said yes.
I’m a newbie, my team isn’t so hot and, to be honest, I don’t have the time to soak up all the information I need to help me play this game better. But I can see the appeal. Each week you get actual box scores from simulated games based on the preceding week’s actual stats. It’s a deft mixture of roto and sim baseball played nearly in real time, and it only hurts when your Johan Santana is edged by Brian Bannister. But such things do happen.
I bring all this up because in this week’s Scoresheet newsletter Jeff lists the players who turn up most on winning and losing teams. This is a great way to measure a player’s actual impact on the standings. As you can see, the differences aren’t huge. Jermaine Dye is a disappointment, but he can’t single-handedly wreck teams. Perhaps you’ll find some names here that will help explain your season thus far:
(And don’t forget to check out Scoresheet Baseball.)
This week we’ve printed a short list of ‘Scoresheet All-Stars’
and ‘Scoresheet All-Worsts’. We took all of the players in the
majors, and totaled the won-loss records for all of the teams that
they are on in Scoresheet, then divided by the number of teams they
play on to come up with their ‘average Scoresheet won-loss record.’
Most pennant races are decided by just a couple of games, so if a
single player makes the difference in 3 or 4 games that is a big deal.This list is not just an order of the players who are having the
best (and worst) seasons, but more shows players who are playing
much better or worse than what they ‘cost’ (how high the draft pick
used to get them, or what they cost in trade).
*Note A guy like Matt Albers (who probably was not even picked
in many pre-season drafts) may show on a league’s ‘Worst’ list
because he was not picked until the mid-season supplemental draft
in many leagues. Those drafts go in the reverse order of won-loss
records, and since Buchholz was a top supplemental pick in many
leagues, Buchholz did end up getting picked by a lot of teams that
already had a losing record when they got him.Have a great week! – Jeff Barton
AL Bests
4468-3596, 35-28 Danny Haren
4347-3717, 34-29 John Lackey
4345-3718, 34-29 Alex Rodriguez
4340-3723, 34-29 Kelvim Escobar
4339-3724, 34-29 Carlos Guillen
4334-3730, 34-29 Grady Sizemore
4332-3730, 34-29 Victor Martinez
4312-3751, 34-29 J.J. Putz
4310-3753, 34-29 James Shields
4293-3769, 34-29 Johan Santana
4289-3775, 34-29 Pat Neshek
4287-3776, 33-30 Alexis Rios
4255-3746, 34-29 Magglio Ordonez
4190-3685, 34-29 Matt Guerrier
4266-3798, 33-30 Joe Nathan
4263-3800, 33-30 Justin Verlander
4230-3771, 33-30 Hideki Okajima
4252-3811, 33-30 C.C. Sabathia
3084-2649, 34-29 C.J. WilsonAL Worsts
3687-4375, 29-34 Joe Crede
3798-4265, 30-33 Brandon McCarthy
3790-4211, 30-33 Jake Westbrook
3832-4231, 30-33 Jermaine Dye
3838-4226, 30-33 Vicente Padilla
3209-3595, 30-33 Doug Mientkiewicz
3842-4221, 30-33 Jorge Cantu
3593-3967, 30-33 Casey Fossum
3789-4147, 30-33 Sammy Sosa
3853-4210, 30-33 Chone Figgins
3821-4178, 30-33 Jason Kendall
3829-4171, 30-33 Mark Grudzielanek
3797-4139, 30-33 Mike Maroth
3861-4203, 30-33 Kevin Millwood
3737-4075, 30-33 Scott Podsednik
3867-4195, 30-33 Josh BarfieldNL Bests
5456-4622, 34-29 Jake Peavy
5403-4676, 34-29 Brad Penny
5374-4706, 34-29 John Smoltz
5372-4710, 34-29 Chase Utley
5299-4719, 33-30 Todd Helton
5312-4767, 33-30 Jose Reyes(NYN)
5281-4739, 33-30 Chris Young(SD)
5275-4744, 33-30 Derrek Lee
5253-4764, 33-30 Chipper Jones
5248-4769, 33-30 Edgar Renteria
5210-4742, 33-30 Tim Hudson
4722-4288, 33-30 Sergio Mitre
5191-4761, 33-30 John Maine
5247-4834, 33-30 Roy Oswalt
5245-4835, 33-30 David Wright
5212-4805, 33-30 Scott Linebrink
5239-4837, 33-30 Albert Pujols
5204-4812, 33-30 Matt Holliday
5225-4853, 33-30 Russell Martin
5190-4827, 33-30 Matt Morris
5217-4864, 33-30 Miguel CabreraNL Worsts
4781-5298, 30-33 Adam LaRoche
4862-5219, 30-33 Taylor Tankersley
4110-4458, 30-33 Jose Castillo
4867-5213, 30-33 Josh Johnson(Flo)
4808-5146, 30-33 Bronson Arroyo
4211-4546, 30-33 Matt Albers
4780-5111, 30-33 John Patterson
4816-5138, 30-33 Anthony Reyes
4849-5167, 30-32 Juan Pierre
4823-5132, 31-32 Clay Hensley
4634-4942, 30-33 Mark Mulder
4162-4469, 30-33 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
4866-5152, 31-32 Freddy Garcia
4867-5150, 31-32 Brian Giles
4841-5112, 31-32 Dan Wheeler
Wainwright Is Screwed by MLB Rules
I’m mostly saying this because he’s on my Tout Wars team
He pitched seven excellent innings tonight. The sort of innings I expect from him here on out. But he was matched by the ace, Roy Oswalt. Of course you expect that.
What rankles is that after he comes out his crony, Ryan Franklin stumbles through an inning before the Cards seize on the Astros the way a child grabs for candy.
But my point isn’t about the Astros’ surrender. It’s about the fact that he rules say that Ryan Franklin, who got three outs, deserves the win, rather than Wainwright, who got 21. If Wainwright wasn’t on my team I’d simply smile and say, Grow up, but I don’t think it’s wacky to question why the Win rule so misrepresents who the best pitchers are.
Carpenter to undergo elbow surgery
This past Wednesday I wrote about Chris Carpenter:
So how is Carpenter doing? He threw Tuesday and said he felt fine, though we all know from experience that a pitcher always say that about his arm unless the darn thing is about to fall off (or maybe already has fallen off). Past history suggests that if all goes well, he’ll be back in two to three weeks, and maybe he’ll be able to slog through the season.
Or, of course, after a few more promising episodes throwing off a mound and then in a simulated game, he’ll be pulled from a rehab start and shut down to have surgery. He then might be in position to try to help the Cardinals secure a playoff spot in September.
We now know that it was the latter possibility that came to pass. I bring this up because I pursued Carpenter aggressively in Tout Wars NL and now face likely ruin this season in that league because of it. Carpenter’s demise is a reminder why the so-called experts don’t push the prices of any starting pitchers, which is why I’ve had pretty good success in recent years in Tout Wars loading up on starters.
Just not this year. Will I go after the best starter again next year? Despite the risk, if the prices for top starters stay low, I’ll be there.
Ask Rotoman at mlb.com
What in the world can we do about pitching? I have some common sense advice. Why aren’t there any hitting free agents? More common sense. Two for one deals? Times when the common sense approach doesn’t work. The column is out now.
Ask Rotoman at MLB.com
This week’s mailbag elicits opinions about Phillip Hughes, Alex Gordon, John Maine, Tom Glavine, and a lesson in how to deal from strength. It’s live now.
Baseball Prospectus | Unfiltered
Christina Kahrl gets mad at fantasy baseball
Ten years ago when people got mad at fantasy baseball it was possible to blame ignorance of the game, but recent spiels by George Vecsy and this one from Christina Kahrl of BP are mind-bogglingly daft (as irrational as Murray Chass ripping on Win Above Replacement as a measure of a player’s value).
There is no special virtue to real baseball fandom, and no decadent inevitability to following your fantasy team. What Christina derides as the mindless accumulating of points rather than the apparently higher calling of putting together a winning baseball team is, as Baseball Prospectus has done much to prove over the years, very similar to the putting together of a winning baseball team.
I’m a big fan of the BP blog, Unfiltered. The shorter format and less formal setting showcase the BP talents much better than the longer form pieces, at least on a daily basis. Even Christina’s misguided spew is sort of fun. Just don’t give it credit for any real thought, it’s really just a ladle of tomato-y gravy.
Fantasy 411: Ask Rotoman
Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Should I dump young pitchers? Should I dump old pitchers? Can I dump all pitchers? Some thoughts on how to handle the inevitable disappointments this week on Ask Rotoman.