Projections

Is Nate Silver Funnier Than Steven Colbert?

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I’ve always thought that the virtue, if you want to call it that, of baseball prospectus’s PECOTA was a marketing angle. By defining confidence intervals it inverts the projection process. The projection is assumed right, and it is the player’s peformance that deviates. I met Nate a few years ago at a dinner and I was surprised by how much I liked him. We rode to Brooklyn together on the subway afterward and, while I wasn’t surprised by how much he knew about baseball projection, I was impressed by how open he was to other ideas.

Nate’s new venture is a website tracking and adjusting public opinion polls about this upcoming election we’re having. It’s called fivethirtyeight.com and it’s full of interesting facts, opinions ideas, and though avowedly nonpartisan, they’ve got Obama with a 90 percent chance of winning the election. That sounds good to me.

Nate was just on the Colbert Report and he’s really funny.

But probably not as funny as  Colbert, at least not for the long run.

Span’s the Man

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SportingNews.com – David Pinto

File this one under weird math, unless I’m missing something. David Pinto looks at Denard Span’s PECOTA projections for OBP and sees a man far outperforming expectations at the major league. Is this a sign that Span will regress?

Pinto then looks at Span’s Triple-A numbers earlier this season and sees that they match what he’s doing at the major league level, suggesting he’s taken a great leap forward. So far, so good. This is the essence of player projection, at least the verbal kind where we identify interruptions in the data.

But he then does some math showing that there is virtually no chance that PECOTA’s evaluation is correct, based on Span’s breakout numbers this year. I’m inclined to accept the verbal argument that Span has improved his approach at the plate and so is getting on base more, but have a hard time accepting as proof this year’s sample.

That’s why we compare small sample sizes to larger ones, as a reality check. And when the small sample is out of line with the bigger one, we should be very skeptical.

Notably, this year, Span is walking more than he has in the past, in Triple-A and the bigs, but he’s also getting on base much more on balls in play, and a significant part of his OBP is due to his BA. It looks to me that at the end of the day (and not necessarily this season) he should end up a .360 OBP hitter. His .399 OBP now is as much the result of good fortune as improvements in his game (though it looks like there are some of those, too).

Decoding the Depth Charts: White Sox 2B

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This is a tricky one, because a lot has happened in the last couple of days.

What was a Battle Royale (think Pulp Fiction) has suddenly become a Media Noche (think Memories of Underdevelopment). Alexei Ramirez is suddenly catapulted into the White Sox starting job because yesterday the team waived Juan Uribe and today Danny Richar discovered a stress fracture in his ribs. Or is he?

Just so you know, I hadn’t projected (in Patton$onDisk08) Ramirez yet because absent a role and absent context it’s really hard to do any work at all. He’s been a very good player in Cuba and could be a major leaguer, or not. There’s really no way we can know with anything but the certainty that comes from saying that he’s a good athlete, he can hit but his defensive rep is weak, and we’ll see.

I had Richar down for 400 at bats, with three homers and three steals. He was a placeholder, at best, if he ended up getting that playing time. The reason he might have…

Is because Juan Uribe, who can hit a little, also can’t resist swinging. So he makes plenty of outs while occasionally whacking the ball. I had him down for 375 at bats, too many for the two of them combined, but again, each probably with fewer than one of them would have. If one hadn’t been released and the other injured.

So what do we do with Alexei Ramirez? Let’s look at some depth charts.

Rotowire.com has Ramirez as the White Sox starting 2B, with Pablo Ozuna as the backup. Danny Richar? Is out.

BaseballHQ.com gives Ramirez 40 percent of the playing time, with Richar and Uribe splitting the other 60 percent.

Over at sandlotshrink.com they like Richar, but note his injury, backed up by Ramirez.

ESPN.com has Uribe down as the starter, followed by Richar and Ozuna (they have Ramirez as the backup at shortstop behind Orlando Cabrera and Juan Uribe).

The usual quirky Rototimes.com has Uribe as the starter, Richar as the sub and Ramirez as the sub sub.

Rotoworld.com has Danny Richar alone at second base, with Ramirez listed as the third string center fielder.

Yahoo.com lists Uribe, then Ramirez.

The comprehensive Sportsline.com goes with Uribe, then Ramirez, then Richar, then Ozuna, then out of left field, literally, Jason Bourgeois.

So, how to sum it up? The Richar injury gets the obvious guy to fail out of the way. But does it mean the job is Ramirez’s? Indications are that the waivers on Uribe are revocable, so let’s leave the last word to Ozzie Guillen, who deserves it:

“Why have we not named Uribe the second baseman? I mean, he’s a great spring-training player, then all of a sudden spring training is over and we see a different player. If the season starts tomorrow, who pitches for Cleveland? Sabathia? Well, then the starting second baseman will be Pablo Ozuna. The next day? We’ll see.”

I’ve cut Richar’s projected time in half, left Uribe the same, and given a slight bump to Ozuna, who apparently will play against lefties. Alexei Ramirez? I’m leaving him blank. He may well earn a role this summer, probably as a utility player, but there seem to be too many bodies ahead of him right now to project him for playing time.

If he’s on the White Sox on opening day he’ll be worth a bid in the end game, unless he emerges from the scrum with the job. Then bump him to $6.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Florida Centerfield

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If you saw Cameron Maybin in his cup last year, and in Arizona later in the fall, you would not though he would be ready this summer to play in the major leagues. An awesome physical talent, yes, a ready major leaguer, no. But having traded away Miguel Cabrera, their star, the Marlins have to be inclined to put on display what they reaped.

Right?

Rotowire.com has him ranked No. 1, noting that he’s hit some opposite field homers with a decent average this spring. They have Alejandro De Aza, not a hitter but having a better spring, second, and Cody Ross, not a regular but he can hit, third. Finally, there is Alfredo Amezaga, the speedy supersub who is so far down the depth chart at each position you don’t even think about him. He’s averaged 350 AB the last two years, with a bunch of steals.

MLB.com has them ranked Ross, De Aza, and Maybin, which is why we’re doing this.

Rototimes.com likes Ross, Amezaga, De Aza, and has Maybin in Albuquerque.

Sandlotshrink.com digs ’em Maybin, Ross, De Aza.

Rotoworld.com has Maybin and De Aza and that’s it.

You can count on ESPN.com to get original. After Maybin and De Aza, yawn, they go for Brett Carroll, and then Ross. Carroll is coming off something of a Triple-A breakout season, but he’s old, his BB/K numbers aren’t so good, and, well, isn’t that enough?

BaseballHQ.com has Maybin with 55 percent of the PT, Ross with 30 percent, De Aza at 10 percent, and long lost speedster Eric Reed at 5 percent.

Yahoo.com is all over the Maybin, Ross sequence.

CBS Sportsline.com is kind of dull, with the Maybin, Ross, De Aza start, but then chimes in with Alexis Gomez, a country heretofore unheard from.

Going into this little survey I had Maybin for 299 fairly weak at bats. Lots of strikeouts, but a comforting number of walks and plenty of steals.

I had De Aza for a similar number of AB (297) but no power and no speed and no contact.

I had Cody Ross for a similar number, too, (266) because nobody is the front runner.

Remember, too, that these three aren’t limited to center field. With the injury prone Jeremy Heredia in left field and the ancient Luis Gonzalez in right, there will be blood out there.

Amezaga, who will play everywhere and no where (fish fans hope) gets 380 AB from me, splitting the difference of the past two years. I put Brett Carroll down for 96 AB, and Eric Reed for 194.

Indecision breeds a mess, that’s for sure. In spring training De Aza has 42 PA, Carroll has 38, Maybin has 35, Ross has 38, Gomez has 29 and Eric Reed didn’t make the cut.

I’m going to cut Eric Reed to nothing and leave the rest of them right where they are. My guess is that neither De Aza nor Maybin can hold the job this year, and Ross will end up with the most AB. But with 10 days left it’s better to remember what they cannot do then to underestimate their PT and create the illusion there is something they can do.

My prediction is that Maybin and De Aza each get a quarter of a season to show what they can’t do, and probably Cody Ross gets the most playing time.

PECOTA AL Stolen Base Leaders 2008

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This was in the Baseball Prospectus newsletter, which comes via email every day.

STAT OF THE DAY

Top 5 2008 AL Stolen Base Leaders, by PECOTA Projected SB

Player, Team, SB

Freddy Guzman, TEX, 37
Carl Crawford, TBA, 35
Brian Roberts, BAL, 35
Chone Figgins, LAA, 33
Bradley Coon, LAA, 33

What you’ve got to like about PECOTA is that it finds stuff. Bradley Coon was a 25 year old in Double-A last year who stole 24 bases in 36 attempts. The Angels’ outfield is already crowded, as is their infield. This slap-hitting oldie with moderate speed seems an unlikely guy to see any major league playing time.

Freddy Guzman is no longer with the Rangers. He was copped in the Rule 5 draft last December and is hoping to snag the job as Curtis Granderson’s backup this summer in Detroit. He’s a real burner whose only problems are that he’s had a hard time making it to the majors, and hasn’t hit in his two brief trials. He’s got a decent eye but no power, so his game rests on his ability to steal first and then second.

The odds of either Guzman or Coons ending up in the Top 5 in the AL at this point are laughable, which is why I like BP’s picks. If they alert you to a player with potential who is for some reason off the radar, they’ve done their job.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Reds 1B

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When Dusty Baker landed in Cincinnati thoughts turned immediately to all that young talent bubbling up in the city of seven hills. While there is some question whether the bigger bat belongs to Joey Votto or Jay Bruce, the hiring of Baker and the re-signing of Scott Hatteberg raised the question of when the bats would boom at the GAB.

Now, the signing of Corey Patterson seems to relegate Bruce to Triple-A to start the season, which may be the right idea, but what’s going to happen in the battle between Votto (400) and Hatteberg (300) at first base?  The numbers in parens indicate my projected PA as I started this survey.

And the depth charts say:

MLB.com says Hattieberg, then Votto.

Rotowire.com goes for Votto, then Hattieberg, then Javier Valentin. Why not?

Rototimes.com says Hattieberg, then Voto, then Adam Dunn. Why not? They also say Jay Bruce is the centerfielder, and don’t mention Corey Patterson.

BaseballHQ.com says Votto, Hattieberg, then Andy Phillips. Why not?

ESPN.com says Votto, Hattieberg, and that’s enough.

Rotoworld.com likes Votto, Hattieberg and Phillips.

Sandlotshrink.com likes Votto, Hattieberg and then can’t make up its mind between Phillips and Craig Wilson.

I guess the nod goes to Votto at this point, but be a little wary, since a slow start for him paired with Baker’s vet-o-philia could quickly cut into Votto’s PT.

Where in the draft do you take Albert Pujols?

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HQ POLL

BaseballHQ has been running this poll after Ron Shandler wrote last week that you shouldn’t take Pujols at all given the injury risk.

Pujols’ three homers since are a strong argument for his ability to continue to hit despite his elbow problems.

But assuming the Cardinals suck, it makes far more sense for him to bail early this year to save next year than to miss next year to the recovery. Right now I think that makes his price $22, though I couldn’t help myself and voted for taking him No. 7-10 in a mixed league draft.

He’s not sure to fail.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Red Sox CF

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When Jacoby Ellsbury roared past Coco Crisp as the Red Sox centerfielder in the World Series last year, change seemed inevitable and irreversible. Yet it also didn’t feel quite right. Crisp is a bonafide major leaguer who went cold at the wrong time. Ellsbury may prove to be a star, but he isn’t going to stay as hot as he was during that short stretch.

So, how to project them this spring? I’ve been assuming that Crisp is going to be a regular, with 560 plate appearances projected. But I’ve got Ellsbury projected for 470. If they’re both Red Sox that’s way too many at bats. But if Crisp is traded then it’s probably too few. How do the depth charts show it?

Rotowire has Crisp as the Red Sox starter, and Ellsbury as the reserve at all three OF positions.

BaseballHQ has Crisp down for 85 percent playing time. Ellsbury for 50 percent.

The ever contrarian Rototimes likes Ellsbury as the centerfieler, with Crisp the backup.

Sandlot Shrink goes for Ellsbury as the starter, Crisp as the backup.

ESPN.com likes Crisp as the starter, Ellsbury as the reserve at all three OF positions (which could mean a fair amount of playing time on a team starting the fragile JD Drew and the aging Manny Ramirez).

USA Today likes Ellsbury to start, Crisp to back him up, but Brandon Moss and Bobby Kielty to backup the corners.

The Rotoworld depth chart is identical to the USA Today. I suspect there is a good reason for that.

Sportsline goes with Ellsbury in center as the starter, Crisp as the backup, but Ellsbury as the backup in left field.

Yahoo’s minimalist depth chart features Ellsbury as the starter, Crisp the backup.

I have to say that I’m not swayed. The sites I know are thoughtful agree with me (Crisp the starter, Ellsbury the backup) and really the only argument I see for Ellsbury being the starter is if Crisp is traded.

Given the potential injuries to JD Drew and Manny Ramirez, and the reasonable chance that Crisp will be dealt, I’m going to stand pat for now. I’ve got too many AB in the Red Sox OF, but not too too many. For now it makes more sense to stick with the talent, and let the roles (and all important injuries) work themselves out.

The most important thing is that Crisp may be a bargain based on the feeling he’s lost the job and the chance he’ll be traded (and being hurt during spring training hasn’t helped him, for sure), and Ellsbury may be overpriced because he looks like a phenom speedster. That may be a good reason to invest in a cheap Crisp.

Patton$ on Disk 08 is here.

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Support Ask Rotoman Page

The link takes you to the page where you can now download the software, Excel and Text files (after paying, of course).

If you’re a past user of the software you’ll be getting the same Windows program with this year’s data, updated weekly through the first week of April.

New users should know that the P$oD software runs superfast in Windows, but comes with a bit of a learning curve. It is designed specifically for draft preparation, though it also comes with an auction module for use during your draft. Note that all the data is available outside of the program, too, and many people who buy the package never run the software at all.

The running of the monkeys —

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Sal Baxamusa — The Hardball Times

Sal looks at the way the Marcel the Monkey projections change based on a ballplayers’ (in this case Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones) recent hot and cold streaks. His charts do a particularly good job of showing how short-term changes shape our overall picture of a player’s skills and future value.

His conclusion is pretty dull, considering how much fun the charts are (if you like charts), but that’s probably right, too.

Would anyone like to see more of these?