Players

Elect Randy Johnson to the Hall of Fame Unanimously!

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randy-johnson-sicover2Trace Woods has posted a delightful piece today in light of the absurdity that 16 Hall of Fame voters left Greg Maddux’s name off this year’s ballot. His quest? To get Randy Johnson elected next January unanimously, and he does a good job of making the case that Randy Johnson might be the best left-handed pitcher in the game’s history. How could anyone not vote for him?

If you’re a HoF voter, you have to read the piece and do the right thing. Please.

If you’re a baseball fan, please spread the word. Sixteen voters should be embarrassed this year. Let’s help save them from themselves next year.

Playing for the Middle

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A few years after I joined the American Dream League I had a decent season and finished in fourth place. I’d battled pitcher injuries and failures all year long, and had the sense that–in this 4×4 league–I was losing ground in wins. I had struggled valiantly to hang in there.

A few days after the season was over I received (in the mail! that’s how long ago this was) the final report from Heath Data, which confirmed the numbers those of us who were in the hunt got when we updated the stats each day manually during the final week. I wasn’t happy about the result, but I was glad to be in the money. But then I looked at the report that Heath called the hypothetical standings, based on our teams’ rosters coming out of the draft, as if we’d made no moves all season long. The hypotheticals are a good way to look at the team you were dealt, as it were. If you suffered a lot of injuries or PEDs suspensions that year your team would suffer in the hypotheticals.

But the draft day hypotheticals are also a good way to see how you played during the year. If you suffered a lot of injuries but turned your poor hypothetical showing into a strong real showing, you did good. Or vice versa, which is what happened to me in that long ago year. In fact, when I looked more closely, I discovered that if I ranked my draft day stats in the actual end of year standings against the actual non-hypothetical stats of the other ADL teams, I’d bought enough stats in the draft to have won the league. Another way to put it: if a safe fell on my head as I left the draft at O’Reilly’s that year, I would have finished first even with the other teams picking up injury replacements and making trades all season long.

Instead I had finished fourth. I found this to be profoundly depressing.

Screen Shot 2013-09-21 at 7.43.29 PMI bring this up now because something similar is happening in the American Dream League this year. onRoto.com, our current stats service, sensibly offers up hypothetical standings all season long. Push a button and you get the draft day standings up to that date. I was aware all season long that I was hypothetically doing much better than I was in the real game, but I chalked that up to a disastrous series of moves I made back in May. That was when I traded Elvis Andrus and Junichi Tazawa for Justin Verlander. I knew I had a big surplus in steals and I thought adding the best pitcher in baseball would help my team. I was able to leverage Tazawa’s presumed role of closer to swing the deal, and was glad to see my hunch pay off and Tazawa didn’t hold the job. Unfortunately, Verlander didn’t do the job–perhaps distracted by girls–but that wasn’t my mistake. I made the right move but it didn’t work out. My actual mistake came from the blind side.

At that point in the season, mid May, my pitcher Felix Doubront was looking dismal. His velocity was down, his control stunk, his ERA was something above 6.00 with a giant WHIP. I had liked him a lot coming into the season, but I despaired that he was damaged and killing my pitching stats. Also, a few weeks before, I’d picked up Cleveland’s Corey Kluber, who had looked like a strong strikeout pitcher with good skills for a few games, but then he got pounded in a game and his ERA ballooned up above six, too. Which pitcher would he be going forward? I figured with Verlander and Shields I didn’t need the risk.

Another factor was our rule that teams that don’t get seven saves during the season get zero points in the saves category. This isn’t a huge deal, but points are points and having just traded Tazawa, who I assumed would get a few, I was scouring the waiver wire and found two potential sources in Oliver Perez in Seattle, where Tom Wilhelmsen was struggling, and fireballer Josh Leuke in Tampa Bay, where Fernando Rodney had suddenly gone all, um, historical-Rodney-like with his control. I decided to go after these putative closers, deciding to release Doubront and Kluber–who each had two-starts against tough teams coming up that week–if I got them (another rule we have limits you to three Special Reserves a season of players who aren’t on the DL or in the minors). I got them.

Both Doubront and Kluber pitched surprisingly well in their four games that week, but to my satisfaction didn’t win any of them. The next week I made a substantial bid on Kluber but was beat out. I didn’t bid on Doubront because I was still convinced he was damaged, but he soon showed he wasn’t. He immediately, punishingly, became the pitcher I had frozen to start the year, thinking, hoping, I had a major breakout candidate. Kluber pitched very well until he got hurt, and certainly would have helped my staff a lot if I’d Special Reserved him, and until a rough patch in September, Doubront was excellent. Perez and Leuke turned out to be nothing, which is why I thought pitching was the problem with my team. But when I looked more closely at the hypotheticals today, they show something different:

My team has 14 fewer homers and 18 fewer steals now than I bought on draft day. I do have 18 more wins, but my ERA and WHIP are both higher than the team I bought back then, even after trading for Verlander. That’s in part because when Verlander was on my team he had a 3.91 ERA, just barely better than my team’s, and a hurtful 13.24 Ratio. (I subsequently traded him for Chris Sale, who will be a decent freeze next spring.) But the real damage to my team came to my offense, which was the result of a series of trades with which I intended to add homers and batting average.

Following Andrus and Tazawa for Verlander and Marwin Gonzalez I did the following:

jacoby_ellsburyI traded Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Zunino for Alex Rios, Ryan Lavarnway and John Jaso. Rios had 10 homers and 10 steals at that point, Ellsbury 1 homer and 24 steals, and didn’t hit for much power last year. I needed homers badly, I thought, even though I expected the weakling speed-corner Hosmer to hit a few and the feckless DH Butler to get going at some pointuy-=. Nothing happened for a week, and then Rios started running like crazy and hit no homers for the 89 at bats I had him for. Ellsbury went crazy and hit .350 over the next month, with a few homers, and has now hit seven homers for the Peppers. I needed catcher at bats, too, and while Lavarnway was a long shot Jaso was getting them. Zunino was not hitting in Triple-A, so who knew when he’d get the call, and even if he did, he might not hit .200.

Five weeks later I traded Rios, Tommy Milone and Jimmy Paredes for Ian Kinsler, Erasmo Ramirez and Leury Garcia. Kinsler would surely hit some homers, I thought, and with him and Zobrist and Asdrubal Cabrera my infield was pretty strong. There was a lot of griping in the league about the Milone for Ramirez component, the team that got Milone badly needed pitching and had for some reason had been talking up Ramirez up like a huckster, but I thought there was a pretty good chance Ramirez would be the better of the two the rest of the way. I wanted him in the deal and I was right, though Milone set a low bar landing in the minors for most of the second half.

A few weeks later I traded the newly FAAB-acquired speedster Jonathan Villar for Derek Jeter, who was just back off the DL. That didn’t work out, since the Captain proved unable to play, but I’m still second in steals at this point, so it wasn’t too costly.

The problem is that if I’d stuck with my draft day team I would have seven points in HR, instead I have two, and I would have 12 points in BA, instead I have eight. My draft day team inserted into the current real world standings against the actual stats of the other ADL teams would have 60 points, a solid fourth place, instead of 52 and a mad six-team scramble for places four through nine.

That team includes Al Albuquerque, Jake Arrieta and Brett Anderson, active all year, as well as Tommy Milone and Fernando Martinez a big hole on offense. Just adding Cory Kluber to the mix for Arrieta (AL stats only) and sticking with it would move the team up a few points and into solid contention with the BBs, Veecks and Jerrys for the championship. Yeesh.

The real mystery is how did I add 225 AB on the year and lose 14 homers (and seven RBI) and .007 of BA when what I was trying to do was add homers and BA? The answer is timing.

In 470 or so AB for my team, Jacoby Ellsbury, Elvis Andrus and Ryan Flaherty hit one homer. In 900 at bats not for my team, that trio has hit 19 homers. Plus Alex Rios, who hit zero homers in the 90 AB while I had him, hit 11 in the 246 AB before I acquired him, and six in the 250 at bats since I traded him. There was a power outage at Bad K Park this year, to be sure, and to catch up I churned the waiver and FAAB wires, trying to add homers, and didn’t succeed while damaging my BA.

The result is that rather than fighting with three other teams for the money spots, I’m in a wrangle with six teams for fourth place. I’m not sure what the lesson of this is. I played aggressively and got burned by bad timing. Verlander’s ERA when I traded for him was 3.17. For me he was 3.91. Since I traded him he’s been 3.74, but his WHIP during since I traded him was by far his best of the year (1.15). Whether or not it was my fault, clearly my activity was damaging.

Maybe next year I’ll practice stillness, and see how that works out.

ASK ROTOMAN: Rime or Reason of the Right-handed Mariner

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Q: I need starting pitching (Sale, Cobb, Roberto Hernandez, Wade Davis, and Esmil Rogers) and have a pretty balanced team offensively. I was offered Hisashi Iwakuma for either Alexei Ramirez or Shane Victorino. I’m inclined to do Ramirez even though I don’t have a ton of speed. The only thing holding me back is Iwakuma’s last bunch of starts in which he’s been giving up a lot of home runs. Would you do this in an AL 5×5 league?

A:: Iwakuma is on pace for a $30+ year, while both Ramirez and Victorino are clocking less than $20. On pure value I think you should make the deal. There is always the chance that a pitcher is going to run out of gas, and Iwakuma has now pitched more innings this year than he did last year. He’s not a stone lock to dominate the rest of the way.

But the fact of the matter is that the homers Iwakuma has allowed this month were to Adrian Beltre (2) in Texas, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Mark Trumbo. Those are three tough offensive teams and some tough hitters. I think you can cut him some slack on that one.

And a guy who has pitched as well as Iwakuma has the last 400 days or so (maybe the best pitcher in baseball over that span) can’t usually be had for Alexei Ramirez or Shane Victorino. So, I think you have to do it if you need pitching and can afford to give up the steals (maybe even dump the category). There’s no guarantee, but there’s not enough evidence against him to ignore how effective he’s been (and even if he falls off a fair amount he’ll be worth more than those guys).

If you trade Ramirez, Victoryno should be yours.
Rotoman

The Overachievers (or are they?): What to expect from the first half’s most surprising hitters

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The challenge on draft day is to buy a guy at his price, what everyone expects him to earn, and then get all the production that comes with a breakout season. In other words, much more than you paid for. This year, the biggest breakouts on offense have been Jean Segura, Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Nate McLouth, Everth Cabrera, Daniel Nava, Manny Machado, Domonic Brown, Matt Carpenter and James Loney (with honorable mention to Yasiel Puig and Carlos Gomez). What should you expect from them going ahead?

Jean Segura. He cost $15 in Tout Wars and earned his owner $41 in the first half. After a hot start hitting with power his SLG has declined each month, but his July BA is .314 after a .277 June. It was expected his wheels would earn him his pay, and they have, but it was the power surge that bumped him to the top of this list. He’s got 24 steals with only four CS. Given our expectations going into the season versus his red hot first two months, it seems reasonable to expect about a .300 BA with four homers and another 15 steals. That’s a very good shortstop.

Chris Davis. Cost $20 in Tout Wars, and earned $45 in the first half. After a couple of promising seasons in Texas, Davis failed for long enough that just about everyone became skeptical about him, but now after proving himself as capable last year, he’s pushing into new territory for just about everyone this year. He was on pace for 62 homers at the midway point, and has hit six more since. The big issues here are gravity and opportunity. Can he remain aloft for much longer? And will he get fewer chances to hit, as teams work around him? He’s hitting more fly balls than ever, and hitting homers on 36 percent of his fly balls. That’s not sustainable in the long run. Still, even if his homer per rate falls to last year’s rate he’s got something like 20 homers coming the rest of the way. (Note: He tore a callous during the HR Derby, an event which has a history of messing up power hitters. The injury isn’t supposed to be a big deal, but anything that affects a hitter’s hands shouldn’t be ignored.)

Josh Donaldson. Went for $10 in Tout Wars, was earning $22 at midseason. Expectations were low because he really didn’t produce last year and with the addition of Jed Lowrie playing opportunities appeared to be limited in Oakland. Instead, Donaldson has confidently established himself as a power hitter, with an increased walk rate and a decrease in strikeouts. His BABIP and HR/FB are higher than ever before, and it seems likely he’ll end up hitting .280 rather than .310, but it also appears he’s made the adjustment to big league pitching. Now it’s up to the pitchers to block him back. Unless they succeed, look for 12 homers and a .275 BA the rest of the way.

Nate McLouth. Only $3 in Tout Wars, at the midway point he was earning $25. For those who noticed his strong September in 2012 and picked him up for a song this spring, April was very sweet. Since then, he’s been a bargain for the price, but not one of the best offensive players in the game. That’s the player you should expect the rest of the way. His past history has a $30 and $20 season in it, but those were a long time ago. Expect him to hit less than .260 with four homers and 14 steals.

Everth Cabrera. He went for $17 in Tout Wars, and was earning $33 on July 1 despite spending time on the DL. Last year he had a low BA with a high BABIP, which seemed to be a warning, but this year he has the same BABIP and a good BA. His basestealing skills are for real and are rare. He still led the league in steals after missing three weeks with a hammy strain. He’s stolen three bases in the week since he returned, so all seems to be okay on that count. Expect 25 to 30 steals and a BA somewhere between .250 and .300.

Daniel Nava. Was taken in the reserve round in Tout Wars, by Larry Schechter, and at midseason was earning $20. When he was pressed into action in 2012 he impressed at first, but then inevitably slumped some and his season ended in injury. Nava, who is 30 years old, was forgotten after the Red Sox signed Victorino and Jonny Gomes. We would do well to remember that when teams sign someone like Gomes, a power platoon player, they also create an opportunity for someone else. Nava got his chance and ran with it this year, with additional chances because of Victorino’s injuries. Nava has been much the same player this year as last, a mature hitter without special skills, who will hit with a little power (figure six homers) and post a .765 OPS (and .265 BA).

Manny Machado. He cost $14 in Tout Wars last March, and was earning $32 after the first half of the season. Promoted aggressively last year, he’s bloomed this year as a hitter. He’s a free swinger who makes plenty of contact, which thus far has led to a high BABIP and nice BA. The danger here is not that he isn’t capable of making contact and running for a good BA, at least for a while, but it’s a hard thing to pull off for an extended period because pitchers are always looking for a way to exploit your aggressiveness. He should hit another 6-8 homers, with a batting average that could range from .250 to .300 or so, though I would plan on the lower end of the range and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Domonic Brown. He went for $14 in Tout Wars, and had earned $31 at the halfway point this season. He was a can’t-miss prospect, the scouts said a few years ago, but to those of us who saw him hit (and didn’t see the projectability), he looked like a looming bust. And that’s the way he continued to look the last two years, with dismal stints in Philadelphia punctuating not-great stints in Triple-A. But when I saw him in spring training early in March he struck me as a different hitter, with a shorter stroke and a willingness to go the other way. Others saw the same thing, and though his role was entirely clear he went for a decent price for a guy who had lost his prospect luster. A slow start got everyone doubting, but when he exploded he blew up and by the end of May he was earning $28. He’s improved that in June, and though July has been quieter one senses we’re simply waiting for the next hot streak. If has just one more, look for 14 or so homers the rest of the way, but he’s a prime candidate for a huge September when rosters expand in September.

Matt Carpenter. Tout Wars went to $14 for him, and in the first half he’s earned $25. Questions about playing time kept his price down a little, and had some of us thinking his Tout price was an overbid. Wrong. Carpenter was rightly given the job at second base (when David Freese is able to play) and he’s pretty much performed as he did last year, only with middle infield eligibility. He’s got a higher batting average and a smidge more power, but that should be expected with more experience, shouldn’t it? Figure the BA will come down to .290-.300 the rest of the way and otherwise expect more of the same.

James Loney. Tout Wars price: $8, with midseason earnings of $25. Please indulge my personal grouse here: The last two years I bought Loney for what seemed like discount prices given his history of earnings, and he failed me. This year I let him go for cheap to the Tampa homer, and Loney’s back to being the dude he always was (and the Tampa homer is in first place by a lot). I hate that. Actually, Loney has been more than he’s been in the past, showing more power in Tampa than he had in LA all those years. He’s actually hitting fewer fly balls and more line drives this year, but his percentage of balls leaving the yard is up to a healthy 11 percent. My guess is that this reflects a better more aggressive approach, and as long as he stays focused and motivated earnings in the $20-25 range are sustainable. That means another six or seven homers, but probably with an average closer to .290-.295.

Two Short Notes:

Yasiel Puig‘s hot start is an illusion. It’s fantastic fun, but obviously he’s not going to hit .391 while striking out 24 percent of the time. It’s really hard to tell where he’s going to land, however, and how hard he’s going to fall. Based on the strikeouts and ground balls, I’d expect him to hit .270 the rest of the way, with 10-12 homers, but that’s really just a WAG. If the pitchers figure out the swing sooner he could be in the minors just like that.

Carlos Gomez has added power the last two years, is still fast, and is way over his head right now in BA. Line drive percentage suggests he should perhaps be hitting for a slightly higher average, but he’s currently got a BABIP .040 points above his career number. The power and speed are real, but his batting average should come down closer to .260 the rest of the way.

Ask Rotoman: Down on Upton? Raising the Aybar?

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Dear Rotoman:

Should I drop BJ Upton and take Erick Aybar? Upton has not hit anything.

Greg

Dear Greg:

The last three years BJ Upton has earned $20, $24 and $24. Erick Aybar has earned $13, $13 and $18.

Going into this season I expected Upton would be worth paying $27 for, while I priced Aybar at $18.

Upton is a little younger than Aybar, but both are in their late 20s, pretty much prime time for established players, which both of them are.

So far Upton has earned -$1, while Aybar has earned $1 after missing 15 days on the DL with a sore heel.

Since we’re just a month into the season, recent performance is really not a trusted indicator of performance the rest of the season, unless we can find a reason for Upton’s problems that suggest something new. So, what has changed since last year?

Well, he’s playing on a new team in a different league, so maybe there are some familiarity issues, with ballparks and pitchers, but one of the reasons for bumping his price was that he was moving from a pitcher’s park to a neutral run environment for his home games. That should offset, at least partly.

He’s been seeing the usual mix of pitches but hasn’t been getting ahead in the count quite as much as he did last year, but the difference isn’t great and he hasn’t hit when he’s been ahead. When he does hit the ball he’s hitting more ground balls and fewer flies and line drives, but these differences aren’t huge.

Upton has always been a hitter who works the count, walks a fair amount but strikes out a lot, leading to a low batting average. If that doesn’t bother you, however, he has good speed and home run power (which is no doubt why you rostered him). The alarming thing is that he’s striking out more this year than he ever has before (31 percent versus 25 percent of plate appearances).

The bottom line here, however, is that despite his struggles Upton is on pace to hit 18 homers and steal 18 bases, and he’s not going to hit .143 the rest of the way. If he’s struggling because he’s facing a fresh set of pitchers and/or because he’s carrying the burden of a big new contract, as the season goes along he’s going to get more familiar with the league and the parks and the hurlers, and the contract will become a lot less new. So figure he’ll bounce back, at least partly, and hit about .220 with 15-20 homers and 15-20 steals, and hope for more and better (which is what he’s done historically).

Erick Aybar will hit for a better average, figure about .290 or so, and steal a comparable number of bases, but he’s likely to hit fewer homers. Figure him for 5-10, more are unlikely.

At this point, who do you like? If batting average matters you probably should have bought Aybar on draft day, but obviously context changes as the season goes on (especially when you’re carrying someone who is hitting .140). Aybar will deliver a decent to good batting average, but not the counting numbers overall that Upton is likely to. But Upton does carry the threat of total failure this year. It does happen, especially with low contact-type hitters (see Adam Dunn’s 2011), so if you want to play it safe Aybar might be the better choice for you.

I would stick with Upton because of the potential upside, the one that I saw on draft day. But if BA matters to you Aybar could prove more valuable even if Upton bounces back. That’s the decision you’ll have to make based on your lineup.

Unevenly floppy,
Rotoman

Ps. I found this preseason poll at fantasypros.com.
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The Final Weekend

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The penultimate software update came out last Thursday, and there haven’t been any major suprises since then, but I’m going to post notes on some of the little things that might change your draft.

Khris Davis: Has made the Brewers after a big power-hitting spring. He’s not a huge prospect, but he is coming off a very productive minor league year and a robust spring training. I think he’s moved up into the top of the $1 or $2 outfielders in NL only leagues.

Steven Pearce: He’s also had a huge spring, but unlike Davis who is 25, Pearce is 30. Not that he can’t be productive for a spell, but his issues are with major league pitchers (not the mix he saw in ST). He may be a worthwhile pickup if you have a hole, but don’t count on him to get playing time or hit regularly.

Johan Santana: Is having shoulder surgery and may never pitch again. And certainly not this year.

Colin Cowgill: Has been given the leadoff spot and job in center field for the Mets. I’m very dubious that he’ll be able to hold it, too many strikeouts, not enough power, but he doesn’t have any shut down opposition.

Pablo Sandoval: Is hurting still. These spring training issues often go away when the games count, but I’m not buying him. There’s simply too much downside smoke to ignore.

JD and Fernando Martinez: JD is recalled, Fernando goes on the DL. Neither has shown he’s a big league regular, but Fernando has the better pedigree. Both are still young and should not be ignored.

Steve Delabar: Manager John Gibbons has said he’ll get saves if Casey Janssen needs to be rested and he’s a better matchup than Sergio Santos. That will probably send his price up some, but his skills will make him a plus even if he doesn’t get a lot of saves.

Mike Carp: Made the Red Sox and could see time at DH with David Ortiz’s problems. Carp is a good hitter but a defensive liability.

Ryan Sweeney: Did not make the Red Sox.

Tyler Colvin: The Rockies for some reason demoted Colvin. It’s hard to see what the talented hitter with limited contact skills can learn in more Triple-A time, but there you go. He’ll be back and instead of costing $12 will be a waiver pickup, and much more dangerous.

Random Roster Notes March 21, 2013

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AL

Oakland’s Hiroyuki Nakajima is having a horrible spring. I had a fairly aggressive projection for him, based on him being a full-time player this year, but he’s slipping fast and doesn’t seem likely to be a starter coming out of camp. Handicapping NPB players is more art than science at this point, especially since the league changed the baseballs a couple years back. What samples we had up ’til then became much less useful. But the other issue is the one of short-term failure or success. Nakajima may actually have all the talent implied by the projection, but his slumping month could deprive him of regular PT. I’ve trimmed him to 250 AB for now, but kept his offensive rates intact. This doesn’t make sense, such a player would likely be a regular, but it tries to reconcile his slow start with my original estimation of his talent. There may well be further adjustments in the next 10 days.

Houston’s Jason Castro is healthy and having a torrid spring, the sort of thing we expected a couple of years ago. I’ve bumped up his projection, both power and batting average, and bid price a bit.

Chicago’s John Danks is struggling and not healthy. He’s likely to start the season on the DL. I dropped his bid price a bit, though it’s still higher than his prices in CBS and LABR.

I already had a modest bid price on Kansas City’s putative closer Greg Holland, because the team has two excellent alternatives in Kelvin Herrera and Aaron Crow. Holland’s velocity is down this spring, so be careful here.

I had the Yankees’ Derek Jeter with too many AB given his age.

NL

Colorado’s Josh Rutledge made a strong impression last season after he was called up, hitting for power and average. He’s the team’s second baseman going into this season and looks like he’s a $17 player this year, kind of prorating out what he did last summer. There’s a few reasons to be cautious. Most importantly, he’s a swinging machine with just fair contact skills. That matters because if he gets off to a bad start and Nolan Arenado stays hot, the Rocks have plenty of alternatives, so his position is far from secure. This isn’t a prediction of doom, just a reason not to like all the things about Rutledge’s there are to like uncritically.

Miami’s Juan Pierre should be going at a goodly discount to his projection, a reflection of his advancing age. At some point he’ll get injured or slow down.

Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun is the NL’s best hitter, reflected in a $40 projection and $40 sticker prices in CBS and LABR, but he’s under investigation for the Biogenesis mess. He’s too good and the story is too weird to knock his price down a lot, but I did erase the premium I built in because he’s so extraordinary. But he’s now a risky play, rather than a safe one.

The Brewers’ Jean Segura is a player attracting divergent positions. He’s got good speed, but is young and unproven and without any power at all. Plenty of players are effective with those skills, if they can lay bat on ball and use their speed to get on base. Segura doesn’t walk that much and a slow start could cost him playing time or his job. It’s that risk that has my price on the low side.

Pittsburgh has Travis Snider slated to play right field this year, but Snider’s past failures weigh heavily on him. He’s still just 25 years old, so chances are good he’ll overcome, but a slow start and he could give ground quickly to Jose Tabata, who comes with baggage of his own. That’s a good reason to bid lightly on both of them.

Arizona’s Adam Eaton is perhaps the young player fantasy punters are most excited about this spring. He’s having a fine spring and seems to be in position to see the bulk of the AB playing CF for the Dbacks. His Triple-A stats came from Reno, and it’s really hard to adjust the outsized offensive stats coming out of that park in that league, so there’re a range of possibilities. I’ve said before I’m not convinced he’s going to set the league on fire, but he’s a solid prospect with good speed who will take a walk.

For some reason my mechanical projection for Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman was very modest. I’ve had a strong bid price on him, however, and he’s showing this spring that he’s added a very effective change up. Don’t let him go cheaply.

Milwaukee’s Wily Peralta is in the rotation to start the season, and could make some noise this year. He should be cheap.

San Diego’s Jedd Gyorko will see regular time to start the season because of Chase Headley’s injury. The projection for him in the software was fairly wack (really low BA, lots of RBI), and has been tidied up. This happens sometimes with the minor leaguers and is usually caught by this time. Gyorko’s season could turn on that limited audition in April. If he kills he could be a major leaguer for life, but if he gets off to a slow start he could end up returning to Triple-A when Headley returns.

San Francisco’s Brandon Belt is having a nice spring. My bid for him was too low. I’ve bumped it up a few bucks, but am still below CBS and LABR. He’s a good post-hype sleeper, but is a lot less attractive if you’re paying him as if he’s a reliable piece.

AL Random Roster Notes, March 14, 2013

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I’ve been polishing the projections in the software, and going through some of the playing time issues on various team. What follows are some thoughts as things start to get real:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Considering the disrespect shown to Jim Johnson, none of the other Orioles relievers is getting much CIW status. Pedro Strop is the obvious name here, while Darren O’Day is probably the best arm. That said, Steve Johnson has control issues, but also throws a ton of strikeouts (and bases on balls, and home runs). All should be available in the reserve rounds unless soomeone in your league has a similar thought. Note that Johnson is working as a starter in spring training.

The Orioles have a lot of live arms and veterans with some success competing for the fifth rotation slot. Arrieta, Britton, Matusz, Bundy and Jurrjens, might contribute, especially given Buck Showalter’s usual success with pitchers. Any one of them could be a reserve pick winner.

Brian Roberts has looked healthy. Given his age and his time on the shelf he’s not going to bounce back to former glory, but has a chance to outearn his price if he stays healthy. Alexi is the obvious go to if he doesn’t, but Ryan Flaherty survived a year on the big league roster last year as a Rule 5 draftee.

BOSTON RED SOX

John Lackey has been showing health if not exactly effectiveness this spring.

The presence of Andrew Bailey obscures the presence of Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara, who promise to at least throw lots of outs, if not any saves.

I bumped up Mike Napoli a few bucks, though still to less than CBS/LABR paid. If you can stand the BA risk he could prove very productive.

Pedro Ciriaco is the likely backup at 2B, SS and 3B, which given Drew’s solidity and Middlebrooks’ limitations could lead to beaucoup AB. He’s a source of steals and his BA should not hurt, if he plays.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

There’s nothing wrong with Chris Sale except his age. I’m not a believer in the Verducci Effect, but young arms that throw a lot of innings are always at risk. I’m not predicting it, but I’m not bidding him up to the first tier either.

Jeff Keppinger is a good hitter, but has no speed and little power, plus he’s not a defensive plus. If he plays all the time he can be productive if you pay $10 for him, but there are plenty of reasons to think his playing time will be limited.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Scott Kazmir is surprising everyone in camp. The fifth starter battle is multi-headed. I like Carlos Carrasco but he’s not proved himself any more than Kazmir.

I’m downgrading Drew Stubbs, who has athletic skills but can be replaced usually by other talents on this team.

DETROIT TIGERS

CBS/LABR paid a ton more for Max Scherzer than he’s ever earned. I don’t really understand that given some of the other pitching prices, though of course we all love his strikeouts, but I’m not going to say they’re absolutely wrong.

Closer in Detroit is anyone’s guess. My strategy is to buy the cheapest one, who might be Al Albuquerque, though Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel are strong, too. I see zero chance that Bruce Rondon will hold the job because of his control problems.

HOUSTON ASTROS

Jared Cosart has the skills to close now, but he’s seen as a starter in the long term, once he stops walking so many guys. He’s already been sent to the minors, but has a live arm.

The more you pay for Carlos Pena the bigger a problem you’re going to have. He’s virtually all floor, no ceiling, if his price pushes his projection. CBS/LABR are pushing Chris Carter higher, but in my book he has a lot to prove.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Greg Holland is the closer, but his backup, Kelvin Herrera is just as good. If he comes at a stiff discount he’w worth targeting.

I like Salvador Perez and my projection likes him, too, but so do a lot of other people, too. I wouldn’t push him much past he last year’s earnings. He’s young and still has to show he can adjust.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM

Ryan Madson is working his way back slowly. Very slowly.

Andrew Romine is looking like the utility guy, a role that has had some value in recent years, though he is not a big power or speed guy.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Glen Perkins did a fine job closing last year, despite throwing from the port side. Jared Burton is the likely CIW.

There are a lot of starter possibilities, but none of them are very good.

I like Josh Willingham’s talent, but I don’t like guys in their mid 30s coming off a career year.

Unless he wins a regular job Darin Mastroianni won’t cost too much and should steal a lot of bases whenever he plays.

NEW YORK YANKEES

How can you not pay Mariano Rivera as the best closer in baseball, though obviously his age is risky.

Edwin Nunez could get plenty of playing time, but his defensive weakness may limit his chances. He is fast and can hit, if he drops to the endgame.

If Travis Hafner is healthy he could thrive with the long ball in that park.

Don’t forget Austin Romine on reserve. Cervelli and Stewart are not going to block him if he’s ready.

Andy Pettitte made his spring debut this week.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

I don’t like Dan Straily this year. Make him a pick to miss.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Stephen Pryor is the hot arm, but he may well not be ready yet.

Kendry Morales is going to be a test of the shorter fences.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

It’s time for Desmond Jennings to break out, if he’s going to break out. I have doubts, but the market is betting on the come.

Matt Joyce is a platooner who could earn nicely and not cost too much. But you’ll be frustrated by the cold stretches and days off.

Jason Bourgeois is another speedy guy who could get swipes if he plays. But might not play.

TEXAS RANGERS

Lance Berkman will DH as much as he’s able to, but he has to be considered a high-risk high-return buy this year. Definitely don’t want to ignore him, but you don’t want to chase him either.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Josh Thole should be cheap, might get regular at bats.

ASK ROTOMAN: Altuve v. Heyward

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Hi..

I’m in a 14 team .. 5×5 rotissire league that can keep players for $5 more then they were purchased the year before..

I have Jose Altuve at $1 (can be kept for $6) but I can trade him for Jason Heyward at $16 (Can be kept for $21)..

I’ve always loved Altuve but im not buying his magazine listed price as an over $20 player.. what are your thoughts on that deal???

“Head Over Heart”

Dear HoH:

If you really love Altuve you’ll keep him for $6. He earned $25 last year. Heyward earned $26, not that much more. So the question here is why would you distrust the $22 price in the Guide, and why would you distrust it so much that Heyward would look like a better keeper.

Remember: Who you keep is a function of who would save you the most money above their keeper price on draft day, assuming you want them on your team.

If you don’t want Altuve on your team, that’s fine, but here are some facts:

Last year Altuve earned $25 in 5×5, according to me. According to Alex Patton he earned $24 in 4×4. I think it’s safe to say in an AL only league he earned in the low to mid 20s.

This year, the CBS Sports experts league paid $24 for Altuve (that’s 5×5), while in LABR he went for $19. I think Altuve is worth $22 this year (a 23 year old coming off a $25 season can only be discounted so much), but even if you buy the LABR valuation, you’re saving $13 keeping him at $6.

Jason Heyward earned $28 in 5×5 last year, I say. Alex Patton says he earned $30 in 4×4.

This year, the CBS Sports expert league paid $28 for him, while in LABR he went for $30. I think he’s worth $28 this year, but even if you buy LABR’s price (and I’m not saying that’s wrong), you’re saving $9, which is less than you’re saving with Altuve.

Plus, of course, you’re spending more than three times as much to get the savings. We just gave every rounding edge to Heyward and the numbers still point to Altuve. I think you have to keep the smaller man.

Here’s another way to look at it, assuming 10 percent inflation in your league:

If you throw back Altuve, it’s going to cost you $22 to replace him, based on LABR’s low price. That’s $16 over his freeze price.

If you throw back Heyward, it’s going to cost you $33 to replace him, based on LABR’s high price. That’s $12 over his freeze price.

The bottom line is that you’ll do better freezing Altuve and buying Heyward on draft day than vice versa, even though Heyward is the better and more attractive player overall.

Quickly,
Rotoman