Players

ASK ROTOMAN: Who Do I Cut?

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Hi. My team name is Honey Nut Ichiros and I am currently in a Yahoo Fantasy League. Which of the following pitchers should I drop to allow space for Kershaw back from DL?

 Travis Wood
Carlos Martinez
Luke Gregerson
Tyler Clippard

“#mustbethehoney”

Dear MBTH:

Lucky you. Kershaw sure looked good his first game back from the DL.

In the preseason I had these four ranked: Martinez, Wood, Clippard, Gregerson.

I had Gregerson projected for two saves on the year, and he managed to get three while filling in for the demoted Jim Johnson back in mid-April. But it has been three weeks since he’s saved a game (and he’s blown three), and Johnson is back in the saddle. Well, sort of. He did save last night’s game.

Gregerson has some chance of getting more saves, so let’s look at the other guys.

Tyler Clippard’s ERA looks fine, but he’s walking six hitters per nine innings pitched, and he’s allowed some homers. His xERA is nearly 4.00. While he’s the likely Closer in Waiting in Washington, and saved a bunch of games in 2012, Rafael Soriano has a pretty good hold on the job for now.

Gregerson hasn’t been as dominating as Clippard, but he’s throwing better. Of these two, I’d release Clippard.

The other reliever you mentioned is Carlos Martinez. There was some thought he’d get a chance to start this year, and he’s enough of a talent to expect he’ll be a very good starter right off the bat, when he gets the chance. Curiously, he’s not been a dominant reliever, striking out 14 in 18.3 innings. He’s the Closer in Waiting in St. Louis, for now, but with Jason Motte expected back by the end of the month, and Trevor Rosenthal mostly getting the job done, Martinez’s value lies in a move into the rotation at some point.

I’m still leaning toward releasing Clippard, but Martinez has to pitch better and change roles to truly warrant that support. I think the chance that he will is reason enough to hold onto him.

Finally, Travis Wood. His ERA stinks, but in all other respects he looks exactly like the pitcher he was last year. That’s an innings-eating starter who should have a 3.75 to 4.00 ERA and decent WHIP. Not a huge earner, but a reliable and necessary cog on a team that has Clayton Kershaw to move the big gear.

There you have it: Cut Tyler Clippard, by a hair.

Sweetly,
Rotoman

 

 

Ask Rotoman: What price the good Polanco?

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Dear Rotoman:

I want to pick up Gregory Polanco before someone else grabs him. If he comes up and is decent I can keep him for 1/3 espn auction value for 2015. (3 year average is calculated from $0 + $0 + ESPN estimated price.) to grab him I have to drop one of my outfielders, we start 5. Who should I drop or should I leave Polanco for someone else?

J. Ellsbury – not dropping
B. Harper – in DL spot
C. Blackmon
C. Yelich
S. Victorino
C. Crisp
J. Heyward – leaning towards dropping him due to slow start

Much appreciated!
“Keeper Heaven”

Dear KH:

First off, and everybody should listen up, if you’re going to ask a keeper question you should give prices. It’s really hard to properly weigh a situation without the facts.

I’m assuming that The Good Polanco at one-third his FAAB price is going to be a good deal next year. But how good? Without the prices of your other guys, I can only guess.

For instance, how does Polanco’s projected keeper price compare to Heyward’s? I happen to love Heyward’s potential, but he’s still a child in a game played by mostly men, and he has done little to deserve that love. But hey, Love never asks.

Heyward is off to a slow start, but he’s getting on base, even though his BA stinks. He’s running more, and successfully, and his power numbers are in line with batting leadoff. Depressed. Which is what he’s been doing, and which hurts roto players who expected big power.

What isn’t in line with his performance or future expectations is his runs scored. Those are down now, for no apparent reason, and should grow as we go along, as long as he bats leadoff for the Braves. And given everything else, his batting average should be in the .250 range, which would put his OBP above .350. The runs will come.

But how much did he cost you? I don’t know, which matters in so far as you might keep him next year (or play him this year). If the answer is negative on both counts, you don’t really care how much he bounces back. He’s your second reserve outfielder and he’s kind of costly. Polanco may not be any better this year, but he’ll be way cheaper. It doesn’t matter what either do now, it seems, what matters is next year.

I’ll remind you, I’m mind reading here, but if that’s the case I would try to trade Heyward. You may think he stinks, but my guess is if I was in your league I’d want him more than my fifth outfielder. I might not give you much, depending on his future price, but something is better than nothing.

And then, if I stopped being my Heyward-acquiring self, and I was you, I’d make a reasonable bid to acquire Polanco. You don’t need him. He’s probably not going to help you this year. He might help you next year, but that’s not a guarantee. The cheaper you can get him the more value he’ll have for you going forward. Which is a reason not to bid too aggressively.

And if you lose him? Then you still have Jason Heyward, unless you already traded him to me. Hmm, this is getting complicated. You can sort out the timing, here’s the takeaway.

Heyward is doing his team a favor leading off, but is far better suited to batting fifth, where he can beat the hide off the baseball. And let his BA go to hell. So maybe he’s not in line to earn the way he did a couple years ago.

Gregory Polanco emerged last year as a minor league fave. He’s killing it in Triple-A this year, with a 1.070 OPS. My usual thing about minor leaguers versus major leaguers is to point out that at Polanco’s age today Heyward had already hit 70 major league homers. So, the rule of thumb is, don’t overreach for prospects.

But Polanco is a real talent who makes better contact than Heyward, but doesn’t walk as much. More importantly, he may end up in an RBI role in Pittsburgh, which suits him (and probably helps your team more). And the Pirates have every reason to promote him once he gets past the Super Two date, probably in early June.

Assuming he’s reasonably cheap, that makes him a keen pickup. And I use the keen adjective enthusiastically.

Not placidly,
Rotoman

 

 

Ask Rotoman: Bench Pressing

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Rotoman:

Should I start Jordan Zimmermann who has a two start week but is facing Greinke and Kazmir or start AJ Burnett, who has been good his last few starts. Also should I keep Cole Hamels in even though his last two starts weren’t great? Appreciate the help.

“Going Over Jordan”

Dear Going:

Over the past three years Zimmermann has been the 12th best starting pitcher in the fantasy game. Though he had a terrible start his second outing of the season, he’s been solid since then. I have to assume you’re thinking of benching him because you’re in a shallow league, but I don’t think any league is shallow enough to justify benching the 12th or 15th or 18th best starting pitcher in the game.

Look at it this way: If you played in a four-team league Zimmermann would be the third or fourth best starter on his team. Plus, in a two-start week he has extra value because he’ll throw extra strikeouts.

Of course, you’d rather have his two games come against the Astros and the Padres, but that can’t happen every week.

Now, if there is evidence that your chalk hurler is injured or has something else wrong, benching may be the thing to do. And while there is no evidence of anything wrong with Zimmermann, in fact he’s striking guys out at a higher rate than ever, Cole Hamels is just back from the DL and was down with the flu over the weekend.

I had a flu-like condition a few weeks ago and it lingered. The Phillies say Hamels will start on Tuesday, but I don’t think you can count on him this week. If you have a viable alternative, this might be a good time to make a move.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: Holliday for Machado? Blame It On Cain.

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Hey Rotoman:

I have Longoria as my 3B, and have Manny Machado. I want to trade Machado to improve my outfield.

What do you think of this trade: I get Matt Holliday for Machado and Matt Cain?

“Machado Man”

Dear Macho:

Some music while we think about this.

First off, I don’t have enough information to judge. It sounds like you won’t miss Machado much, playing Longoria instead, but whose working week does Holliday end? And who is filling Cain’s shoes?

The problem here is that Cain has not been a Top-20 starter so far this year, and that makes it easy to undervalue him after a few bad outings. I recently l0oked at last year’s slow starting pitchers and found that pitchers who were expected to be good usually did okay after a bad start. Matt Cain was one of those guys last year, and he recovered, at least part way. A bad start doesn’t mean the rest of the season is a disaster.

Still, over the five months after his bad start Cain wasn’t the Cain anyone who bought him last year hoped for him to be. And it has to be disturbing that he’s starting this season in similar fashion. So I can understand disenchantment.

Okay, another musical interlude.

But I can’t really judge your trade because I’m not seeing all the pieces. The two parts that stand out are: It’s a great idea to upgrade your outfield by dealing a reserve corner. Not that it isn’t valuable to have a solid backup like Machado, but to win you probably have to maximize even if that’s a little risky. So that makes sense if Holliday is a nice bump on the guy you’re replacing.

But Matt Cain shouldn’t be a throw in. If you have a great staff without him, making him expendable because of his poor start, I don’t have a problem with that. But if you’re dealing him because you’re expecting him to be replacement level the rest of the way, I think there’s a fair chance you’re selling him a little short.

Ably,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Stanton for Braun?

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Rotoman:

I play in a Head to Head points league, with -1 for strikeouts and -1 for errors.

My friend requested a trade where  he gives me Giancarlo Stanton and I give him Ryan Braun. I was about to hit yes when I decided to look at the stats and Giancarlo strikes out an awful lot more than Braun. He also commits more errors. Should I go for the boom-or-bust Stanton, or keep my very solid Braun.

“First I Look At the Stats”

Screenshot 2014-04-25 18.25.57

Dear First:

Good idea to look at the stats. Here’s some back-of-the-envelope projections:

Braun should score a lot more runs (+30), hit roughly the same number of homers and drive in a lot more runs (+20). That’s the benefit of playing on a better team in a better stadium. Braun will have a higher batting average, and, oh, he will run more than Stanton, too.

Braun also has an advantage in strikeouts (125 to 140 for Stanton) and errors (6 vs. 8), but these differences are small beer.

On Stanton’s side, he’s still young and is likely to have some years in which he hits more homers than Braun ever did. But it’s hard to see that happening as long as he plays in Miami, so that’s not relevant this year.

Also on Stanton’s side, Braun is older, which usually leads to an increase in strikeouts at some point. But Braun isn’t worrisome old yet at all, so if you’re looking for an edge there you’re reaching.

Obviously, it’s your decision, but I’d hang onto Braun.

Conclusively,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: How Much Is Potential?

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Dear Rotoman:

For several years i have been waiting for two players to become regulars, hit around .280, and become true value players. No. 1 is Joaquin Arias (SF Giants) and Luis Valbuena (Chicago Cubs). I still think both have good potential, but they are not so young as they were a while ago. Do they ever reach their potential as i envision it?

“Two Prospects (Past Due)”

Dear TPPD:

It seems like a long time ago I had a bit of a thing for Luis Valbuena. I look back now on his stats and I’m mystified. I paid money for this guy? He has always been terrible at the major league level.

But he wasn’t always playing at the major league level. In Triple-A his stats were pretty good, year after year.

So, first of all, don’t rely on Triple-A stats for major league projections. Good major league candidates often skip Triple-A. And plenty of players who are pretty good but not major league ready thrive in Triple-A. We call them Quad-A, FWIW.

Luis Valbuena is one of those guys. Get over him. The clock has ticked and you were wrong about him. He can’t hit or run or hit for power. Over.

I never much cared about Joaquin Arias. Nice name, but he hasn’t nicked my platinum prospect shine.

Maybe that’s because as an offensive player he’s been offensive. He has had some defensive value, if you like Fangraph’s WAR evaluations. But even if you don’t, there is no way you can possibly say that Joaquin Arias is a breakout offensive candidate this year or in the future.

Potential is the ability to outperform expectations, which tend to settle in the middle. Luis Valbuena and Joaquin Arias may have better times, they could play better or they could be used better, but so far they are near to the dregs. At their age and previous performance, it would be lunacy to think they have any future potential.

And I think they serve as a good cautionary tale about putting too much faith in Triple-A stats and defensive prowess.  A good fantasy strategy is to avoid losers. Luis and Joaquin are doing fine in the real world, but in the fantasy world they’re losers.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: The Rich Get Richer

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Rotoman:

6×6, 8-team head-to-head categories league.  I just got Jose Reyes back from the DL, so who should I drop from the following:

Jose Altuve ($23)
Chase Utley ($17)
Dee Gordon ($7)
George Springer ($10)

Thanks.
“Reyes of Light”

Dear RoL:

Oh, the agony of the shallow league. I’m not going to address 6×6 and Head to Head issues, since you don’t specify categories and H2H mostly ups the randomness of winning and losing rather than adding any strategic nuance.

The numbers in the parentheses above are what those players were going for in preseason auctions. Jose Reyes, by the way, went for $25 or so. So, the obvious answer would be to drop Gordon., but I can understand your reluctance. He’s already stolen 10 bases and while he isn’t going to continue to hit .365, if he hits .270 on the year he’s going to steal a lot of bases.

Jose Altuve is off to a solid start, making him one of the best second basemen in the game, so it’s hard to drop him, and Chase Utley is off to a monster start and has more power than Altuve, Gordon and Reyes, so you have to hold onto him.

Which leaves Springer as the odd man out. He was the surprise promotion last week, and there is a lot of excitement about him because he has a nice power/speed combo. There are also serious questions about his contact rate, and he’s struck out five times in 15 plate appearances already—on track with his Triple-A numbers, which could prove a problem.

One of the agonies of playing in a shallow league is deciding between excellent or exciting players. If Springer goes on to hit 15 homers this year, you may look back and wish you’d kept him rather than Dee Gordon, but at this point Springer’s risk of failure is high enough I think you have to go with the speedy middle infielder.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: Time To Give Up On Salazar?

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Rotoman:

Is it worth giving up Danny Salazar in a 5×5 keeper league where I need some power in order to get Matt Adams?  I already have Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Robbie Erlin, Yordano Ventura, Tyson Ross, and Jeff Samardzjia for SP’s plus a couple others. What do you think?  The other offer was Bumgarner for Mark Trumbo, but I think thats too spendy.

“A Bridge Too Salazar?”

Dear Bridge,

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. You are pretty rich in pitching and need a power hitter. On draft day Salazar and Adams probably cost a similar amount, and it sounds like in hindsight if you could have taken Adams instead of Salazar you would have. So this deal is obviously to the good for you.

And I agree about Bumgarner and Trumbo. The former was a $24-25 player in NL leagues, while Trumbo was a $22-23 player. If that was your only way to add power you might do it, but it isn’t as square a deal as Salazar for Adams.

It might have a bigger impact, since Trumbo is a more significant hitter than Adams, and Bumgarner is a more significant pitcher than Salazar, but sometimes it’s better to play it safer and smaller, which is what Salazar for Adams does.

That’s because we know quite a bit about Adams. He’s a very solid power hitter against right-handed pitchers (and not so good against lefties). He may lose some at bats versus lefties at some point, especially given the Cardinals’ plethora of hitters in the bigs and the minors, but he’s been weak enough against lefties (.588 OPS in limited time the last three seasons) that you probably want to see him sit against them. He’s still a solid power hitter even when missing those at bats.

We don’t know quite a bit about Salazar. He took the AL by storm late last year, in 52 IP, and was quickly elevated to stud status  by many despite the lack of experience. I warned about that during the preseason, because regardless of a young pitcher’s obvious gifts (he throws very hard, missed lots of bats with good control, etc.), we simply don’t know how well and quickly he’s going to be able to adjust as hitters adjust to him and his workload increases. Salazar has not been good thus far this year. His velocity is down, he’s walking guys, and throwing homers. It’s early, just three starts, but things are not right right now.

So make the trade. Getting out from under the struggling Salazar is really just a slim advantage. Odds are Salazar is going to work things out, and once he’s in a groove he’ll throw plenty of strikeouts, but he’s not in that place now, and if you can fix your team by dealing a struggling cipher, you have to do it.

Enthusiastically,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: Should I trade Mike Trout?

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Dear Rotoman:

ESPN 10 Team 5×5 roto league. Should I trade Mike Trout and Pedro Alvarez for Jacoby Ellsbury and Giancarlo Stanton?

“Fishing”

Dear Fishing:

Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27)No.

In a shallow league the greatest value goes to the most irreplaceable players. Mike Trout is the best outfielder out there, by a lot. He is the only irreplaceable outfielder, and as such is paid a premium (which is what you get when you’re the first draft pick). You don’t want to trade him. Ever. Unless the bounty you reap means you don’t have to ask anyone else whether it makes sense.

Plus, Pedro Alvarez is a third baseman. He’s not an irreplaceable third baseman, per se, but with Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre on the DL, Alvarez ranks as one of the top six or eight third basemen. He will hit a lot of homers. Since you don’t say how you would replace him it’s hard to judge totally, but in general Alvarez earns a little premium, too, for his position.

Which is not to run down Ellsbury and Stanton, both of whom have plenty of skills. They could conceivably earn more than Trout and Alvarez in any given year, though again, without a discussion of who plays 3B for you it’s hard to figure this. But neither Ellsbury nor Stanton is irreplaceable.

Don’t do it.
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Excited to Add Tim Hudson

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Dear Rotoman:

I have a chance to add Tim Hudson.  I need to drop a pitcher in order to do this.  Pitchers to drop: Francisco Liriano, Jeff Samardzjia or Zach Wheeler.

Do you think Hudson in better than any of the three listed.  Scoring roto categories are  W, L, ERA, WHIP, Ks and saves.  What do you think.  

“Tim Is On My Side”

Dear TimIOMS:

I like to start with benchmarks. Some expert leagues (CBS, LABR, TW) recently had auctions. How did these guys rate?

Liriano: $15, $10, $14 (my bid price is $8)
Samarzdjia: $11, $9, $13 ($7)
Wheeler: $10, $10, $10 ($6)

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAHow about Hudson?

Hudson: $4, $8, $5 ($8)

The experts leagues don’t like this idea at all, and while I have Hudson a little higher, I’m sure I would prefer Liriano, at least, to Hudson, but your question is whether I’d prefer Hudson to any of them. And clearly in my preseason rankings, I valued Hudson by a little over Wheeler, who may have a bright future ahead of him but entered this season a bit underdeveloped as a ML starting pitcher.

Tim Hudson is an experienced veteran with a long track record of success, but he’s coming back from ankle surgery and he’s 38 years old. Guys recovering in their late 30s are far from sure things, and have to be considered somewhat delicate.

So, you have youth and vigor facing off against age and savvy, and you’re looking for the edge. By my reckoning it’s close. I would give a very slight advantage to Hudson in real baseball, and given the probability that the Giants are going to be the better team all season long, that bumps up to a healthy advantage in a league that puts a value on losses as well as wins.

Not only might the Mets not score so much for Wheeler to win, but that bullpen could lay some hurtful losses on him as well. Still, you’ll be giving up quite a few strikeouts, so make sure you can afford those.

And remember, too, that you’re giving up the sexy young rapids to add a lazy ol’ river. If things go wrong you and me both are going to look a little dum.

Edgily,
Rotoman