Players

The Price of Everything

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A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the dilemma of owning David Price in an AL only league in which the stats of players traded to the NL don’t count. I’d sent a note to the other owners in the American Dream League offering Price for a power hitter, a catcher preferably, but as a team battling for first place, willing to take any deal that returned fair value and helped my team in some way.

The initial offers—Jason Castro, Derek Norris—seemed potentially doable on July 29th, if I was panicked and certain that Price was going to the Dodgers or Cardinals, but not strong enough to get me to give up in early July the four or five more starts he likely had with Tampa in July, and the not insignificant potential that Price would remain in the American League.

I then came up with an idea that I thought was great. The team that owned Yu Darvish was in last place, below the point threshold that triggers a penalty in the next year’s FAAB. That is, a team loses one FAAB (of 50) for each point it finishes below 35 points. You also gain extra keeper slots for each standings place you gain, from four up to eight.  So a team in trouble has a great incentive to gain points.

My idea was to trade for Darvish, offering Price and James “Some Came Running” Jones, who has ranked second in the AL in stolen bases since he was inserted into the Mariners outfield on May 6th. Price is of equal value if he stays in the AL and no value if he is traded to the NL, which is where Jones comes in. If Price stays in the AL the team gets a huge boost, if he’s traded they still get some points moving up in steals.

The team that owned Darvish were not moved to move him. Part of the problem was that they only had three places to gain in steals, which is nice but not a big deal. And while Darvish and Price have keeper value for 2015, Darvish in all likelihood will be back. Not only might he lose Price this year, but he’d also likely lose him for next year.

At this point I was thinking that I might end up keeping Price. My pitching staff was okay, but it never hurts to have one of the best pitchers in the league on your team. And if I lost him? My staff was still okay, and if I managed it creatively I might even gain points in ERA and Ratio without Price. My lead in wins was big enough I wouldn’t be crushed. I was okay keeping Price, but then Huston Street was traded to Anaheim.

Huston Street

Two teams had $38 FAAB left. No other was close. One was in the second division, but second in saves with a big lead. He had no need for Street. The other was, depending on the day, a point ahead or behind me in the standings, a couple points out of first place. Another closer for him was worth at least three points in saves, plus another potential point or two in ERA and WHIP.

Over at the discussion board at pattonandco.com I suggested that the team who didn’t need a closer might benefit more by buying Street and flipping him than by waiting to see who else is dealt to the AL. A bird in hand and all that. I wasn’t thinking at that time of being the one to get Street, I just didn’t want the team I was fighting to get him. That owner accused me of being self-interested. Guilty.

What I didn’t think of, the other owner did, was trading David Price for Huston Street. The other owner proposed it online, and there was only one reason I could see not to do it. I’m pretty far behind in Saves. Two saves for one point, and then it’s 13 saves to the pack. That’s a lot of ground to make up.

But I decided to go for it, for a few reasons.

Street is a fair value return for Price in 4×4. Did I mention this was 4×4? So far this year Street has earned $24 and Price $20, using Alex Patton’s prices. I don’t expect Street to outearn Price the rest of the way, Price’s first-half ERA was inflated by what seemed to be some bad luck on fly balls. More than usual left the yard. He should have a lower ERA in the last two months.

Important to me, however, is that relief pitcher ERA and Ratio have real value. To date, Price has earned $4.90 in ERA and $7.60 in WHIP. Street doesn’t have nearly as many innings, but he’s earned $4.20 in ERA and $3.90 in WHIP.

But if my per month earnings projection for Price is $5, he’s projected to earn $11 the rest of the way. While Street’s per month projection is $4, so he’s expected to earn $9. But there is some real chance that Price will do his earning in the NL. If that chance is 20 percent, I get a slight edge in the deal. If the odds are more 50-50, which I do, then things look very well today pricewise.

Category-wise, however, the prices are askew. For one, I have a big edge in wins, so Price’s wins (worth $8.70 to date) have helped me out to a decent lead in the category, and don’t mean that much to me at this point. And I have a big deficit in saves, so Streets saves (worth $14.90 so far) might not mean that much to me.

Except, I have a couple of outs, as we say in poker.

For some reason I bought Matt Lindstrom in our auction, and he was the White Sox closer at the start of the year before he got hurt. He is rehabbing now and is expected to be back in the majors in early August. If he is reinstalled as the team’s closer and save 5-10 games the rest of the way, I could actually make up ground.

I also have Aaron Loup, who saved two games for the Blue Jays this past weekend (before Casey Janssen was pounded last night). More saves is a big help (my fingers are crossed).

I hope that breaking the lead up to this deal will help illustrate the many different factors that go into dealmaking. I think the biggest one, however, are your league’s rules. This old school AL 4×4 league, the first AL rotisserie league in existence ever, is no longer typical, but then neither are your 6×6 15-team mixed league that doesn’t include teams from the NL west. Or whatever.

Working through how your league works will help you unlock value, and perhaps make trades that help both sides, and give you a better chance to win.

Ask Rotoman: John F. Kennedy or Kennedy Fried Chicken?

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Rotoman:

Here is my predicament:

I believe in Ian Kennedy! It’s terrible I know. A 4 ERA on the season and a 5.67 ERA over the the last 7 days (this letter was written June 30, since which Mr. Kennedy has had two exemplary starts, allowing two runs in 13 innings, gaining two Wins and striking out 14) doesn’t get many excited. But I can’t get over the fact that he has a 9.67 K/9 on the season and an 11.37 over the past 7 days! If he throws a 6-7 inning 0-2 ER game it’s a gem because he strikes out 7-9 during it.

I guess my question is: Do you see him getting back to 2011 numbers, as we saw at the beginning of the year? Or do you see him regress and be a 2013 Lincecum? (4+ERA, 8.5+ K/9).

“Ianized”

Dear Ianized:

Player performance fluctuates. Some of that is due to a player’s health or physical groove, and some of it is random. Our goal in a player projection is to remove the short-term effects of health and team and ballpark and then isolate the player’s skills from the vagaries visited upon him by luck.

This would be a problem if a player’s career was one of constant skills, but the fact is that a playing career consists of many mini-careers. When young a player is physically strong, but probably not as smart as he can be. He is better equipped to overpower than finesse. When he approaches 27 his physical skills are still strong, and with experience has come wisdom and smarts, which is why so many career years happen about this time. As he advances into his 30s a player’s physical skills deteriorate, but survival skills allow him to add abilities that enable him to hold on.

Predicting a player’s season performance means deciding where he is in his career arc, and also in the mini arcs that really define his career.

20041222-jfk-1073The question here is whether Ian Kennedy, as he approaches 30 years old (this coming December), is still a young enough phenom that can recapture the glories of his year 27 season, when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA? John F. Kennedy. Or is he a savvy enough veteran to improve his game by being smarter rather than better physically, holding on by grit and grimace. Kennedy Fried Chicken.

I think the fact that Kennedy hasn’t achieved the way he did in 2011 this year, despite throwing fewer fly balls than ever before and allowing fewer homers per fly ball than ever before and striking out more than ever before, is a tipoff that 2011 was an outlier. That was the perfect storm of the physical, the mental and the lucky, and it is unlikely that he will repeat that for any extended period ever again. He just isn’t good enough.

That said, right now Kennedy is throwing harder than ever before and striking more guys out. He seems to have changed his repertoire to get more ground outs and allow fewer fly balls, and throwing fewer homers at least in part because of that. He is mixing savvy and physical skills, and whatever good performances he’s putting up can be attributable to being a better smarter pitcher, still with young man skills.

For now, he’s a man with a career 3.97 ERA, a career 3.95 FIP, and a 3.71 ERA on the season, striking out 9.67 per nine innings pitched for a team that is scoring runs at a historic low rate.  He could very well help a fantasy team in the second half of the year, because of the strikeouts and some good but not great qualitatives, but savior status is too much to expect.

He’s more Kennedy Fried than JFK, but I like him.

Politically,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Which Lateral Pitching Move Should I Make?

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Dear Rotoman:

My league: 12 team, categories are r, 1b, 2b, 3b, hr, RBI, bb, k’s, sb, avg, w, L, qs, era, whip, k’s, s, bs, holds

My team:
C- Carlos Ruiz
1b- Anthony Rizzo
2b- Howie Kendrick
3b- Evan Longoria
SS- Xander Boegarts
Of- Andrew McCutchen, Matt Holliday, Melky Cabrera
Uti- Justin Heyward, Mark Teixeira
Bench- Oscar Tavares, Jon Singleton, Michael Bourne, Brian Dozier
DL- Josh Hamilton
SP- Madison Bumgarner, Jason Verlander, Cole Hamels, Alex Cobb, Yovani Gallardo
RP- Krod, Joakim Soria, Grant Balfour, Cody Allen
DL- Andrew Cashner

2 questions: I’ve been offered two deals, one where I would give up Hamilton for Gio Gonzalez and another deal where I would give up Mark Teixeira and get Trevor Bauer.

Also what 2 guys do you think I should drop to activate Hamilton and Cashner with my roster right now or if I were to make either of those deals

“Pitching Poor”

Dear PP:
You’re problem is that Bumgarner had a bad April, Verlander and Hamels are struggling and Cashner is hurt, so you have to play Gallardo.

Solution No. 1 is to put Cashner in for Gallardo when he comes off the DL this weekend. That’s easy.

Solution No. 2 is tougher. Verlander has pitched poorly this year, worse than in his mediocre 2013 campaign. Velocity, strikeouts are down, bases on balls are up. This is a struggling pitcher. Hamels, on the other hand, has been throwing some more walks, but for the most part looks the same as usual. So, expect him to bounce back some. But what do you do with Verlander?

Are either Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Bauer an upgrade? And if so, enough of an upgrade to be worth dealing Hamilton or Teixeira?

While both might pitch better than Verlander, neither is close to a chalk starting pitcher for your staff. Gonzalez is fine, strikes out one per inning, but allows a fair number of baserunners. Bauer is freshfaced, and has been throwing a worrisome number of walks. Either might be just fine, if you had them you might choose to play them ahead of Gallardo, but it’s hard to see either solving your problems unless they get uncharacteristically hot. Teixeira and Hamilton have their flaws, but they are real contributors on offense when they’re healthy. Both seem to high a price for either of these guys.

Before making either of those deals, I suggest you try to pry a better pitcher away from some team, even though there will be a bigger price. You have enough outfield depth to put together a package, or even deal McCutchen and play your depth, in order to land a pitcher as good as Bumgarner.

The other alternative is to use Taveras or Singleton as bait for a hot starting starter without a strong rep. With an extra arm or two you might be able to play matchups, and still play Verlander if he gets hot. Last year, after a strong start, he struggled through June and July, but he was able to right the ship, and finished the season strong.

I don’t think he was taking the velocity hit then. Let’s see. Just downloaded Verlander’s chart from Brooks Baseball.

Brooksbaseball-Chart

Nope. He had other issues last summer. I’d be worried, but I would also try to really get better before trading for guys like Gio and Trevor.

In a league like yours, with so many categories, playing time and category management matter a lot. It’s really hard to tell from outside which of these hitters you should be playing. All of them are fine hitters, who will contribute in some ways and hurt you in other ways. Teixeira, for instance, hurts you in BA but helps you in walks. Michael Bourn doesn’t have a lot of power, but will help you in Triples. And so on.

Good luck finding a better trade.
Rotoman

Ask Rotoman: Time Wieters for No Man

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Dear Rotoman:

I have Matt Wieters on my team.  Do you think I should pick up a catcher to replace him or wait to see if he will eventually get better. Replacement Options would be John Jaso, Kurt Suzuki, AJ Pierzynski, Wellington Castillo, or Russell Martin.

“Caught Looking”

Dear Caught:

Wieters went on the DL on May 11th and is eligible to return on May 26th, but so far his elbow still hurts and he hasn’t been able to throw, so don’t expect him to return when eligible.

joeweider-flexing

Reports are that he’s feeling better, but until he proves himself able to throw at full effort without re-injuring himself it’s hard to say with any certainty when he’s going to get back. Right now he’s no strongman.

The range of possibilities extends from a healthy return in early July as a catcher, to an earlier unhealthy return limited to DH duties sometime in mid June, or season-ending Tommy John surgery, probably after it’s decided that he’s not getting better from rest. The value of the DH stint is reduced because surgery will remain an option, should the Orioles fall out of the race.

Since you asked the question, I’m assuming you play in a league that has no DL or reserve slots. I can understand not having reserve lists, keep those healthy players available to all teams, but I think it’s just cruel to force teams to make decisions like this. The uncertainty punishes teams that suffer more injuries than other teams, and most injuries just aren’t predictable.

So be it. Let’s say Wieters comes back July 1 and is healthy. You’ll get $9 of expected production out of him the rest of the way, in half a season, assuming he performs as expected.

You’ll get a little more than two-thirds of a season from the other guys. Here’s what they cost in the preseason and what they’ve earned so far, as well as an evaluation of their value going forward:

John Jaso: ($8, $4) He is the most like of these guys to have a breakout season, beating expectations by a lot. He’s already ahead. Plus he’s earning his breakout without a ridiculously high batting average. Expect $6 more from him, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he put up $8 more.

Kurt Suzuki: ($2, $5) He’s hitting better than .300, but has always looked like a .240 hitter, now playing in a park notorious for stifling homers. He’s not going to be a $15 hitter this year. Expect perhaps another $3, or less.

AJ Pierzynski: ($12, $3) He’s a little bit behind expectations but has such a long and robust history it’s easy to expect him to catch up. He could earn another $9.

Wellington Castillo: ($9, $3) He’s right on pace to earn to expectations, which is another $6. Why not?

Russell Martin: ($10, $2) He missed time on the DL, which puts him on pace to have earned $4 thus far, and thus $8 more the rest of the way if he stayed on that pace. Expect a little less than that, but it’s in the ballpark.

So, your best bets are Pierzynski and Jaso, with Martin a bit behind. None should be expected to earn more in the next four months than Wieters will if he plays three healthy months. If you were sure Wieters were going to come back, you would hold onto him. Or so the evidence would suggest. But the difference isn’t great, and the odds that Wieters won’t return are more than zero.

How much more? If you think they’re 1 in 5 chance, Wieters rates as $7 the rest of the way. If it’s a 50/50 chance, Wieters becomes a $4 player. The real odds are probably somewhere between those two, but you can’t ignore the possibility that he’ll opt for surgery, making him a $0 player. The only scenario in which Wieters beats Jaso or Pierzynski is if he gets healthy and plays the rest of the season as you hope he would. Those odds favor replacing him.

If it were my choice, I would switch to Jaso as soon as possible, but I wouldn’t blame you at all if you switched to Pierzynski instead. He’s probably the safer choice of the two. Either way, make the move, and remember you can always angle to recapture Wieters via FAAB if he does come back.

That wouldn’t be a bad move at all.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Pick a pitcher. Pick Two!

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Hey Rotoman:

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 Roto League. My pitching staff consists of Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Hisashi Iwakuma , Yordano Ventura,  and Tanner Roark, with Alex Cobb and Hyun-Jin Ryu  on The DL. Who do I drop Hyun-Jin Ryu or Yordano Ventura? Cobb will be replacing Tanner Roark.

“U Pick Pitchers”

Dear U:

This is a better problem to have than most. Starting a staff with Wainwright, Scherzer, Greinke and Iwakuma, even in a 12-team mixed league, takes a lot of the pressure off.

You seem pretty certain that Cobb for Roark is the first move, but with Ryu coming off the DL today, I thought it might be worthwhile looking at all four guys. Each has a story.

Here they are. The first number is their composite preseason price. The second is my bid price in preseason. The third is what they’ve earned so far (multiply by 3.5 for a full-season value). These are Only League prices, used as an index of value, not as a measure of worth in your mixed format:

Tanner Roark: ($4, $8, $4) He’s done a fairly good job so far for the Nationals. A fair number of grounders and strikeouts, plus a good defense behind him, has helped. He’s not overpowering enough to feel comfortable yet, but is a fine back of the rotation guy, even in mixed.

Yordano Ventura: ($7, $8, $6) As advertised, more than a strikeout an inning with good control. Very solid performance so far without the wins to gas the value, thanks to the Royals’ weak offense thus far.

Alex Cobb: ($18, $18, $3) He’d only made three starts before he was shut down with an oblique injury, one of the cascade of injuries to pitchers this season. But this wasn’t his arm, and he’s expected to be ready to start Thursday night against the A’s. He’s a groundball pitcher with a reasonable strikeout rate and good control. You have to activate him when he’s ready to go.

Hyun-Jin Ryu: ($15, $17, $3) He was shut down two weeks ago with some soreness in his pitching shoulder. He was supposedly not even given any imaging, the Dodgers just wanted to be careful he didn’t overdo it. He’s a moderate groundball pitcher with a decent but not great strikeout record, and good not great control.

When do they pitch?

Ryu: Tonight, the Mets in NY.
Cobb: Tomorrow, the A’s in Tampa.
Roark: Tonight, the Reds in DC, Monday, Marlins in DC
Ventura: Monday, Houston in KC.

I agree that replacing Roark with Cobb is a no brainer, so do that after tonight’s game. The Reds are crippled and on the road. Get an extra start.

I also agree that Ventura and Ryu is kind of a close call. My sense of adventure wants to say go with Ventura, the emerging ace, but common sense gives the nod to Ryu for a few reasons.

Ryu plays for a better team and should win more games. He has also been round the league a few times and hasn’t stumbled. He’s the safer choice, even as he comes off the DL.

Ventura is the exciting choice. He throws 96 mph consistently, with tough breaking pitches. But he’s young and has made only 12 major league starts. No way I’m predicting that he’s going to stumble in any big way, but he’s had an advantage so far that is going to fade a little. Does he have the moxie to adapt? We don’t know.

And does he have the stamina to throw the 150 or so additional innings he’s on pace for? There’s no way we can know that either.

More excitement or less excitement, that is the question. Your staff is good enough to take the risk, it’s also strong enough you don’t have to.

What a beautiful day. Let’s play Ryu!

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Ask Rotoman: Which Outfielder Should I Get Rid Of?

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Dear Rotoman:

My outfielders are Jason Heyward, Michael Morse, Colby Rasmus, and Domonic Brown. Who do I try and trade away? It’s a competitive, deep 12-team league. I need to trade one or two away with Ryan Braun coming off the DL Tuesday or I drop one of them and he gets picked up immediately.

Note that one of the OF spots is CF specific, 2 other OF and no UTIL.

– Heyward is projected to have the best year, and if sold now I’d be selling him for much less than I drafted him for. I drafted him since it’s kind of his live or die year, and players tend to excel around that time, and he should be a top 10 CF by the end of the year no?

– Morse could have another great year like 2009-20011, where he had 17 AB/HR and .300ish average. His .540 SLG is right on his 2011 30+ HR year. Could this be a throwback year?

– Colby Rasmus could finally be playing up to his potential as a first round pick by the Cards. Again I need a CF position specifically,  and he has potential to be kind of a Pedro Alvarezy all pop-swing away types. Plus the Jays lineup is killing it, so more pitches to hit and more plate appearances facing the bullpen. I know 5 HR 8R 12 RBI in the last 10 games isn’t a pace that can be kept up, but could his be a sign of what the rest of his year looks like?

– Brown can’t hit anything outside, but if he could figure it out, and he had a much better 2013 than either of the other 3. Now that pitchers found a hole in his swing, do you think he can adjust? I know he hit all those homers the first half of last year pretty short. He had the shortest average homerun distance, and they were always to right field. Will he ever live up to last year?

Who do I target? Anyone I should go for specifically? Do I try to pair a couple up and trade up / a trade they can’t refuse?

“Five Into Four”

Dear 5i4:

You’ve written the analysis yourself, I agree with almost all that you’ve said. But let’s look at a few data points.

2014 Cost: Heyward 23, Morse 13, Rasmus 14, Brown 23.

2014 Earnings: Heyward 2, Morse 6, Rasmus 4, Brown 3

ESPN Player Rater: Heyward 78, Morse 17, Rasmus 28, Brown 80

You have a different scoring system than either the 5×5 costs and earnings above, or the ESPN Rater, but we can see that in any system Morse and Rasmus are exceeding expectations and Heyward and Brown are lagging. Which is why you’re asking the question.

I have to admit, I find the slumps of Heyward and Brown disturbing. Heyward because it has gone on so long, Brown because it looked like he’d made real strides last year, and hasn’t looked like the same hitter this year. If the pitchers have found a real hole, and he can’t adjust, he’s going to have a problem.

But when I look at the numbers, the player I think you have to ditch is Michael Morse. He’s walking less than ever before, striking out more, hitting more infield flies (that’s bad), hitting a lot of his fly balls for homers. All of these are suggestive of a coming correction, an end to his hot start and a slump of sizable proportions.

But here’s the good news. Morse is probably your most tradeable player. His numbers don’t compare horribly to 2011 (he didn’t walk much then either). You might convince someone that he’s going to keep this up. Maybe even package him with Brown, to create a roster slot for the guy you get back to fill. It’s worth trying, anyway, and probably worth it for a team doing poorly to take some chances.

The other good news is that you’re getting Ryan Braun back. In a shallow league like yours, where only 36 outfielders play at a time, having sure Top 10 guys really helps.

Less is morse,
Rotoman