Players

Is Age the Problem?

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Baseball Musings

David Pinto doesn’t present any evidence that age is the reason for the drop in offensive production, he’s just spitballing here, but the accompanying chart, which shows average age per plate appearance from 1871 to last year, is eye opening. Not an answer, but a jumping off point for scores of questions.

Last Patton $ on Disk 2007 Update is Live

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Ask Rotoman News

For those who have been tracking the P$oD07 updates all spring, the final one was posted last night. It includes the Patton software, merge files for those looking for updated bid prices from Alex Patton, Rotoman, and Mike Fenger, my latest (and last) projections for the year, and text lists and an Excel file for those who simply want the stuff.

Thanks to all of this year ‘s and future customers. May you kick butt all season long.

Bleed Cubbie Blue

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Watching Mark Prior

I was tipped to this post by baseballmusings.com. BCB watched Mark Prior pitch in a scrimmage Friday morning, and has many interesting things to say about his condition, his apparent confidence, and his stuff (not as impressive as Jason Marquis’s).

He also posts some pictures of Prior on the mound that make him look wan, to say the least.

This is good stuff, but it doesn’t knock me off my main point about Prior this spring. He’s working his way back. It may take a few weeks, it could take a lot longer. But he doesn’t have to be the same pitcher he was before to win again in the major leagues.

As his price plummets he’s the sort of guy to grab late in the day. This report makes me a little less confident that things are going to work out this year, but despite the good intentions I know that a lot of what looks like one thing in March becomes something different in May. That’s a reason to dog talent, even when it looks this crippled.

Same Pitchers, Different Stats

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Same Pitchers Different Stats 2006

This is an excel file about 100K.

We’ve run this chart in the Guide in the past, when we’ve had an open page, and I had a request from a reader that I post it. Here’s what the caption said in the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2005:

ERA and Ratio do a decent job of describing what a pitcher did, but not necessarily everything about how well they did. While putting together the magazine we consistently look at the BB/9, K/9, and HR/9 metrics. These tell us how well a pitcher kept runners off base, got outs without the ball being put into play, and kept the ball in the park. These pitchers are ranked by their relative effectiveness in these three measures last year, from best to worst.

The other two columns show the opponents batting average against a pitcher on balls in play (HR and strikeouts are removed), and for all at bats. We’re less sure what to do with these, though a high AVG-BIP is thought to indicate that the pitcher had some bad luck. Have fun.

Looking at the results, it’s clear that comparisons between starters and relievers don’t have much validity. And with two 100 IP starters near the top of the chart, workload probably plays a part there, too.

Still, if Ben Sheets can stay healthy he clearly has his effectiveness back. He’s not going to be cheap but he could be a bargain.