Players

Decoding the Depth Charts: Rockies 2B

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I at least in part wrecked two fantasy teams (Tout Wars NL, Rotoman’s Regulars) because of too much love for Marcus Giles. Not that there didn’t used to be a reason for admiration and optimism, but last year he languished for no apparent reason and you have to question his mental conditioning as much as anything. Slumps happen, but you have to stand up to them. Injuries have hurt him in the past, but this seemed different.

When he signed with the  Rockies I assumed he’d be the front runner for the second base job in Colorado, but it is increasingly obvious that he’s not even the second choice there. So I’m giving up. Let’s look at who reigns on the depth charts:

Rotowire.com likes Jeff Baker, Jayson Nix, Clint Barmes, Giles, Omar Quintanilla and, finally, Ian Stewart.

MLB.com goes Nix, Quintanilla, Stewart, Barmes, Giles. Baker is listed as the backup at first and third base.

ESPN.com goes Nix, Baker, Giles, Stewart, Quintanilla.

Sandlotshrink.com picks Nix, Giles, and someone new. Meet Matt Kata.  (They have Stewart as a backup at third base, Baker as a backup in the outfield.)

Rototimes.com comes through again! Giles, Nix, Stewart, Quintanilla, with Baker backing up in the outfield.

USAToday.com sez: Nix, Giles, Quintanilla, with Stewart backing up third base and Baker behind six guys in the outfield.

and finally, the finely tuned baseballHQ.com, which lists players with percentage of playing time. They like Baker (40), Nix (30), Giles (20), Stewart (15), Quintanilla (5) and Barmes (5).

My projections before I started this escapade gave Nix 200 PA, Baker 375, Giles 330, Stewart 125, Quintanilla 100 and Matt Kata 125. Barmes got 335, mostly based on the idea that he’d be traded.

1,000 PA for the other guys is a little too much considering that Stewart will play some third base, Baker will play some first and outfield, Quintanilla or Barmes will see some time at SS and somebody has to play in Colorado Springs. So let’s go through the possibilities…

Jayson Nix had a pretty good year in Colorado Springs last year and he’s a good second baseman. That has to count for something here. I don’t think he’s a major league regular, but he does enough to hold onto a job when there isn’t a better alternative.

Jeff Baker hasn’t much hit righties, which is a problem, and he isn’t really a second baseman, working on the position this past fall in the AFL.  He might make the Rockies but I don’t see him winning this job.

Marcus Giles was a good second baseman once upon a time, and he used to be able to hit for some power, get on base, and run. He isn’t so old that his time should be up. He’s been quiet but effective in spring training.

Stewart, Quintanilla, Barmes and Kata are all backups at this point. There is some hope that Stewart will end up being a major league regular but he’s not there yet.

Who do I like? I think Nix will win the job, will fail to impress with his bat, while Giles–having worked hard on his physical condition and attitude (I don’t know that this is true, but how could he not given how awful he was last year)–will eventually get a shot and win the job for the rest of the year. Except that he’ll then, after I’ve blown all my FAAB on him, wreck his hammy. Bah!

Ask Rotoman: 10 Valuable AL Guys Not on a ML Roster on Opening Day — Maybe

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Hi, My draft is on this Sunday & it is an American League ONLY draft. You have been of much help in the past & I was wondering if you could again help me out AGAIN? Could you give me a list of 10 players that will have an impact this year in fantasy baseball that will not be on a opening day roster? “Minor Key”

Dear Minor:

I have no idea if I can give you 10 from the American League, and even though you don’t care about the National League, I think I should list some of them, too. Tomorrow. For now, let’s go through the AL rosters and see what we come up with:

AL

Yorman Bazardo had a good run with the Tigers last year. His father died just as Spring Training was getting under way and he’s behind in his work. He’s a control pitcher whose rates haven’t changed dramatically as he advanced, which is a good indicator of major league success. Too bad he doesn’t have a better punch out. Okay, I admit it, I like his name.

Clay Buchholz on the other hand has an arm, plus he has a no hitter already. You have to like that. The Red Sox trip to Japan creates interesting possibilities for roster management and I’d be lying if I said I’d thought them all through. Buchholz is the youngster and at the back of the rotation, if he’s in the rotation. It wouldn’t be a surprise if was sent down for a few weeks at the start of the season.

Anthony Swarzak has a great arm but is a little lacking in experience. He’s certainly not going to start the season in Minnesota, but depending on how things work out he could end up there. The Twins are not super aggressive with promotions, usually, but Swarzak is further along than most. There is a chance he’ll get a shot this year, and that means he could contribute.

Kevin Mulvey went to the Twins in the Johan Santana deal. Unlike Swarzak, he didn’t spend 50 games on the bench last year after testing positive for recreational drugs. He’s not as dominant an arm as Swarzak and doesn’t have near the ceiling, but if he doesn’t make the Twins rotation out of camp he’s likely to get a shot at it before Swarzak does.

Gio Gonzalez struck out 185 guys in 150 Double-A innings last year, and while he walked a fair number of guys (57) he kept the ball in the park, didn’t allow many hits, and got the job done. He’s way young and the A’s aren’t in a big rush to hurry him along, but stuff happens and he’s close to ready.

Nick Adenhart doesn’t have Gonzalez’s heat, but he’s got a well-rounded set of pitches and he’s learning to use them. He’ll start the year in the minors, but if anything disrupts the Angels’ rotation he’s likely to get a trial. Good luck.

On the hitting side…

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a lot of major league at bats, but he’s not a good catcher and the Rangers went and signed Ben Broussard to play first base. His bat should work in the major leagues now, but it makes sense for the Rangers to send him down to either get better as a backstop or tackle a new position.

Carlos Quentin has been slow coming back from shoulder surgery, and Jerry Owens will almost certainly be the White Sox left fielder on opening day. This opens up the possibility that the Sox could option Quentin to get some regular playing time. While an extended spring training gig is an option, Quentin’s not really hurt badly enough for the DL. Let him play!

Wladimir Balentien has a double and a homer in his three major league plate appearances. He’s shown good patience and an aggressive bat in his career overall. The Mariners clearly think he needs some more time, though he made big strides last year. Presumably they think their pennant run this year will be helped more by Ibanez and Wilkerson, but when they drop out of contention Balentien will be the guy who comes up and impresses. That’s my prediction.

Evan Longoria is not only a hitter but also a first rate defensive player. He’s having a big spring, but the Rays may decide to have him start the year in Triple-A because he’s young and perhaps they don’t want to start his career clock and salary just yet. But he’s ready now, and will be the top Rookie prospect not in the AL at the start of this year if he doesn’t start the season in St. Pete.

Brandon Wood doesn’t have a place to play right now and should start the season in Triple-A. He’s got huge power, but he has struck out an alarming amount of the time in the minors. Some scouts think that’s going to be a problem, others say he’ll be fine. There’s a good chance he isn’t going to get a real chance in the majors this year, but an injury or trade or two could open up an opportunity mighty quick. And when he plays he’ll hit home runs. Fer sure.

That’s 10. I’m sure I missed some good ones. Like Luke Hochevar, who is going to start the year in Triple-A, but he’s not really ready anyway. David Price was the No. 1 in last year’s draft, and is supposed to be ready soon. Jeff Clement will start the season playing in Tacoma, but if the Mariners trade Johjima after they fall out of the race he could be the starter at any time. That’s 13. I’m out of here.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Reds 1B

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When Dusty Baker landed in Cincinnati thoughts turned immediately to all that young talent bubbling up in the city of seven hills. While there is some question whether the bigger bat belongs to Joey Votto or Jay Bruce, the hiring of Baker and the re-signing of Scott Hatteberg raised the question of when the bats would boom at the GAB.

Now, the signing of Corey Patterson seems to relegate Bruce to Triple-A to start the season, which may be the right idea, but what’s going to happen in the battle between Votto (400) and Hatteberg (300) at first base?  The numbers in parens indicate my projected PA as I started this survey.

And the depth charts say:

MLB.com says Hattieberg, then Votto.

Rotowire.com goes for Votto, then Hattieberg, then Javier Valentin. Why not?

Rototimes.com says Hattieberg, then Voto, then Adam Dunn. Why not? They also say Jay Bruce is the centerfielder, and don’t mention Corey Patterson.

BaseballHQ.com says Votto, Hattieberg, then Andy Phillips. Why not?

ESPN.com says Votto, Hattieberg, and that’s enough.

Rotoworld.com likes Votto, Hattieberg and Phillips.

Sandlotshrink.com likes Votto, Hattieberg and then can’t make up its mind between Phillips and Craig Wilson.

I guess the nod goes to Votto at this point, but be a little wary, since a slow start for him paired with Baker’s vet-o-philia could quickly cut into Votto’s PT.

Where in the draft do you take Albert Pujols?

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HQ POLL

BaseballHQ has been running this poll after Ron Shandler wrote last week that you shouldn’t take Pujols at all given the injury risk.

Pujols’ three homers since are a strong argument for his ability to continue to hit despite his elbow problems.

But assuming the Cardinals suck, it makes far more sense for him to bail early this year to save next year than to miss next year to the recovery. Right now I think that makes his price $22, though I couldn’t help myself and voted for taking him No. 7-10 in a mixed league draft.

He’s not sure to fail.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Red Sox CF

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When Jacoby Ellsbury roared past Coco Crisp as the Red Sox centerfielder in the World Series last year, change seemed inevitable and irreversible. Yet it also didn’t feel quite right. Crisp is a bonafide major leaguer who went cold at the wrong time. Ellsbury may prove to be a star, but he isn’t going to stay as hot as he was during that short stretch.

So, how to project them this spring? I’ve been assuming that Crisp is going to be a regular, with 560 plate appearances projected. But I’ve got Ellsbury projected for 470. If they’re both Red Sox that’s way too many at bats. But if Crisp is traded then it’s probably too few. How do the depth charts show it?

Rotowire has Crisp as the Red Sox starter, and Ellsbury as the reserve at all three OF positions.

BaseballHQ has Crisp down for 85 percent playing time. Ellsbury for 50 percent.

The ever contrarian Rototimes likes Ellsbury as the centerfieler, with Crisp the backup.

Sandlot Shrink goes for Ellsbury as the starter, Crisp as the backup.

ESPN.com likes Crisp as the starter, Ellsbury as the reserve at all three OF positions (which could mean a fair amount of playing time on a team starting the fragile JD Drew and the aging Manny Ramirez).

USA Today likes Ellsbury to start, Crisp to back him up, but Brandon Moss and Bobby Kielty to backup the corners.

The Rotoworld depth chart is identical to the USA Today. I suspect there is a good reason for that.

Sportsline goes with Ellsbury in center as the starter, Crisp as the backup, but Ellsbury as the backup in left field.

Yahoo’s minimalist depth chart features Ellsbury as the starter, Crisp the backup.

I have to say that I’m not swayed. The sites I know are thoughtful agree with me (Crisp the starter, Ellsbury the backup) and really the only argument I see for Ellsbury being the starter is if Crisp is traded.

Given the potential injuries to JD Drew and Manny Ramirez, and the reasonable chance that Crisp will be dealt, I’m going to stand pat for now. I’ve got too many AB in the Red Sox OF, but not too too many. For now it makes more sense to stick with the talent, and let the roles (and all important injuries) work themselves out.

The most important thing is that Crisp may be a bargain based on the feeling he’s lost the job and the chance he’ll be traded (and being hurt during spring training hasn’t helped him, for sure), and Ellsbury may be overpriced because he looks like a phenom speedster. That may be a good reason to invest in a cheap Crisp.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Royals 1B/DH

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A friend asked me the other day about depth charts, and wondered which had the most reliable information. I said that I didn’t really know about the best, but that I used Rotowire (because I pay for it) and MLB.com (because I’m there) mostly. He wrote back that he wasn’t a Rotowire subscriber, but checked out some others and couldn’t understand why MLB.com had Schilling as the Red Sox second starter and other inconsistencies with the spring news, which got me to thinking…

Over the next couple of weeks I’m going to look at some of the spring’s positional and role battles through the lens of the various depth charts available to me. That means free services and Rotowire and BaseballHQ are in play.

I hope we’ll learn something about depth charts, the services, and most important, who’s going to play this season. Let’s start with the Royals’ first base/dh battle.

The candidates are Billy Butler (535), Ross Gload (477), Ryan Shealy (162) and Justin Huber, who is converting to the outfield this year because of the logjam ahead of him. My playing time totals reflect the conventional wisdom, with Gload and Butler the putative starters and Shealy a sub or elsewhere.

Rotowire has Gload as the first baseman, Butler his backup, followed by Teahen and then Shealy, with Butler as the DH with Gload as his backup. For some reason they have Esteban German as the third string DH.

MLB.com has the same order at first base, but doesn’t include Gload at DH (just Butler and German).

Yahoo’s minimal approach puts Gload and Shealy at first, and Butler at DH.

ESPN, which is maximal, has Gload followed by Butler, Shealy and Teahen at first, and Butler, German and Gload at DH.

Rototimes.com comes to the rescue of creeping boredom, listing Shealy as the starter against lefties and righties (so far the only service to include platoon info), with Gload and Huber as subs at first base, and Butler as the DH. They also list the Triple-A guy at the position, if there is a meaningful one.

Rotoworld.com has Gload the 1B starter and Shealy his backup, with Butler as the DH.

SandlotShrink.com also has Gload and Shealy at 1B, with Butler the DH.

USAToday.com has the same.

Drafthelp.com has Gload and Butler as the starters and doesn’t rank reserves.

BaseballHQ.com has the neatest information, as it were. They give playing time percentages for each player. At first base Gload (60), Shealy (20), Butler (10) and Teahen (10). At DH Butler gets (65), Huber (10) and Guillen (5). I assume DH doesn’t add up to 100 because of interleague games, though that wouldn’t account for 20 percent of the plate appearances as implied here.

sportsline.com throws us a little curve, putting Butler, Gload, Shealy at first base (in that order) and Gload, Butler, Huber (in that order) at DH.

What did we learn? Everyone except Rototimes is lock step on this one. They’re declaring their affection for Shealy out front. I like him this year, too, though as a sleeper pick who could emerge if there’s an injury or either Gload or Butler gets off to a bad start. As a result I’ve knocked Butler and Gload down about 120 plate appearances total in my projections, and given those to Shealy.

1B: Gload, Shealy, Butler

DH: Butler, Shealy, Huber

And, it should be noted, that the Royals have too many players. Huber is out of optioins, I believe, and German becomes expendable with the arrival of Callaspo, so either Shealy or Huber could end up elsewhere.

Doctor confirms Pujols has tear, but won’t need immediate surgery – MLB

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ESPN

The issue here is what do you think you should pay for an Albert Pujols who could shut down at any time. The rehab from the surgery is supposed to be eight months, which is why it didn’t make sense to do it last October.

Eight months back from next February is  May, which is probably too soon to count the Cardinals out even if you’re a pessimist.

But unless the Cards are really in it come June 15th or so, it makes sense to shut Albert down and focus on the last two years of his contract with them. A half a season of Albert is worth about $20, though at this point uncertainty is going to drive his price to $30. I’m going to go with $22.

Maybe the Pujols uncertainty is a good reason to start Colby Rasmus in the minors. Or it may be a good reason to promote him aggressively, the way the Cards once upon a time promoted Pujols. That’s a story worth watching closely.

Patton & Co. is Free

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Patton & Co.

Sign ups have been slow and we don’t know why. If you haven’t signed up please let me know your thoughts. If you tried it out and stopped using it I’d like to know why, too. I’m constantly impressed when I get over there about the information on players, so I feel like the product has a use, especially since the level of postings has been really good.

Now, there will be no pay mode until well after the season starts (and I personally think the model works better with no pay mode at all, at least for the comment database, so I’m arguing for that).

So please check it out if you haven’t, and let me know what your problems are if you have and stopped. Write to askrotoman(at)gmail.com.

Thanks.

Corey Patterson Signs with Reds

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2005 Chicago Cubs Statistics and Roster – Baseball-Reference.com

The story I remember from 2005 involved Patterson slumping, the Cubs messing with his swing and approach (which has always been free swinging), some disagreement between Patterson and his manager (but nice words from management about his professionalism), and then he was gone to Baltimore.

Now he’s reunited with that 2005 manager, Dusty Baker, in Cincinnati. Though he signed a minor league deal, this has to be an indication that Jay Bruce will (unsurprisingly) be beginning the year in Triple-A. More interestingly, it could be a reunion of two guys who like to the bat to be put on the ball and so seem both made for each other and oddly paired. Risky personal dynamics, advancing age, and Patterson’s speed and defense make him a strong sleeper choice at this point.

Changes in home run rates during the Retrosheet years

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The Hardball Times

Tom Tango methodically and revealingly demonstrates, using information gleaned from Retrosheet and MLB’s ball-testing lab, that there is real evidence that the home run boom that began in 1993 was a product of a juiced ball. Don’t believe me? Read the story.

Which isn’t to say that this is the final word. Tom’s data relates to balls put into play as they relate to home run rate, which is the best way to figure out the effect of hitting the ball farther, but not so good for determining changes that might stem from the umpires’ calling of the strike zone (in which case the ball might be hit less often).

Plus, I find it hard to believe that given the potency of Mile High in Denver, that the control group of players had a similar increase in home runs to those who didn’t play in Colorado. That’s something to think about while reading Tom’s story.

David Pinto, of baseballmusings.com, says that manufacturing standards tightened up for the ball manufacturers in 1993, and that balls were tested more often. His theory is that the manufacturers established a more tightly wound ball (but still within the official specs) as the de facto standard. Unlike times past, when the equipment would slide and the balls would loosen up and a range of tightnesses were created, the modern ball is uniform and tightly wound.

In no way does this argument rule out the possibility that other factors played a part in the recent power boom (Tom doesn’t publish the numbers after 1998 for one thing), but it does establish that only modest changes to the ball could readily explain much if not all of the changes. That’s worth remembering when it is tempting to overreact.