Patton Software

Patton $ Corrections: Post Feb. 21 Update

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The new edition is out, with lots of updates. For more information about the software visit software.askrotoman.com. Some we missed that will be reflected in the next version:

Vicente Padilla is playing in Japan this year.

Dodgers signed RHP Mark Lowe to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

Cubs signed RHP Carlos Villanueva to a two-year, $10 million contract back in January.

Brooks Conrad has reached a contract agreement with the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball.

Brad Eldred has signed with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Central League.

Cubs signed INF Alberto Gonzalez to a minor league contract?

White Sox signed INF Andy Gonzalez to a minor league contract?

Marlins acquired INF Adeiny Hechavarria from the Blue Jays in a 12-player trade.

Athletics released INF Luke Hughes.

Andruw Jones has finalized a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Rakuten Eagles of Japan’s Pacific League.

Diamondbacks signed 1B Kila Ka’aihue to a minor league contract.

Brewers signed C Blake Lalli to a minor league contract.

Jose Lopez has agreed to a one-year contract with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Central League.

Wil Myers appears twice on spead sheets

Tsuyoshi Nishioka has officially signed with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Central League.

Diamondbacks avoided arbitration with SS Cliff Pennington by agreeing to a two-year, $5 million contract.

Scott Podsednik Free Agent

Vinny Rottino has agreed to a one-year contract with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Pacific League

Braves claimed OF Jordan Schafer off waivers from the Astros.

Pirates sent INF-OF Drew Sutton outright to Triple-A Indianapolis.

Omar Vizquel said Tuesday that he is planning to retire from baseball at the end of this season.

Jack Wilson has retired from baseball.

Thanks to Russ Tibbett for these.

LABR Results

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The AL spreadsheet is here. The NL spreadsheet is here.

Chatter about both over at pattonandco.com.

There is a new special edition of the Patton $ Online with Rotoman’s projections in the works at software.askrotoman.com. It will include full results from the CBS Sports Experts 5×5 AL and NL drafts, and full results from LABR AL and NL drafts, as well as bid prices from me, Alex Patton and Mike Fenger. I’ll post a notice here and at the software site when it’s posted.

Patton $: March 1st Update is Out!

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Some little fixes have been made to the program, but the big news is the inclusion of CBS Sports Expert League prices for the AL (thus far) in the Lg1 column, and full active 4×4 and 5×5 Patton$ formulas in the excel spreadsheet. When you change a projection the prices will change. It’s hours of good fun and a big help in making lists.

Available now!

Head over to software.askrotoman.com for all the detail and to order yours today.

Bomb-Bedard-ed! What do you get for chasing? Eric-ed.

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Eric Bedard Fishing

Anyone who plays roto knows that what you pay for your players can be just as important as who was on your team. The fantasy game is one of markets, and the winner’s objective is always to get as many players as possible that the market undervalued. How do you know a player was undervalued? At the end of the season he’s earned more than you paid for him.

The funny thing is that despite the importance of what guys cost, once Jerry Heath sold his legendary stat service back in the mid-90s, nobody kept track of what players actually cost each year. Nobody, that is, until I started collecting and publishing that info in the Fantasy Baseball Guide (ON SALE NOW) six or seven years ago.

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2011
The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2011

Right now I’m putting the polish on the stats and projections that are going into the Patton $ Online product we sell (free trial going on now at software.askrotoman.com) and I came across the Cost and Price Scans for Eric Bedard, and do they tell a story:

In 2006, we paid $8 for Bedard, and he went out and earned us $17.

So, in 2007, we paid $19 for Bedard, and he went out and earned us $29.

So, in 2008, we paid $30 for Bedard, and he fell off the edge, earning $7.

But in 2009, we paid $19 because he was Eric Bedard, and he bounced back to earn $12 and lose us money.

Last year, we paid $8 for Bedard, and he didn’t pitch. What are we going to pay him this year?

Alex Patton says $5 right now. Mike Fenger says $4. I say he looks like a reserve to me, a guy who is worth controlling, but not such a good bet to spend money on, though if he’s having a good spring I’d pay a few dollars for his talented arm. The problem is that if he’s having a good spring his price is going to go back up to $8 or even more come opening day.

The point is that we tend to pay the most talented players as if they’re going to have as good a season as we can imagine, even if they’ve let us down recently. Bedard’s price went up lockstep with his earnings in 2007 and 2008, but when the injuries grabbed hold of him the air didn’t rush out of expectations. We kept bidding him up, hoping he’d get healthy again and the little discount we thought we were getting for his iffy health would become a big one.

The problem with this is that we’re actually still investing top dollar in a fragile economy. Over the past five years we’ve spent $81 on Bedard and he’s earned back $65. That’s not a disaster, but it isn’t a winning strategy either. You want to pay up for the guys who are going up before they go up, like Bedard in 2006 and 2007, and try to avoid the guys who are at their peak with nowhere to go but down, as the oft-injured Bedard has proved the last three years.

It isn’t always easy and it’s a call all of us get wrong more than we’d like, but it is the single most important mental adjustment you can make. Paying for last year’s stats, especially from players without a serious track record of success and health, is often a losing game.

Player Projections, some notes

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My friend Todd Zola makes an excellent point about Player Projections today in a story at SI.com.

I bring this up because I’m working on the projections for Patton $ Online, which we’ll be releasing next week. People ask how that set of projections is different than the projections that appear in the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010 (on newsstands now!), and a big part of it goes to Todd’s point: Most player projections are similar when it comes to the evaluation of the player’s talent, it’s often in the playing time that they vary.

When we’re putting the Guide together in December, there are still hundreds of free agents available. While it’s easy to project playing time for the guys who are sure to be starters, because we know they’re going to get 550-650 AB if they’re healthy (and obviously a similar dynamic is in place for pitchers), but for guys on the edge, who may platoon or even be benched, playing time is hard to predict until they’ve settled on teams.

The Patton $ projections incorporate all the team and league changes into the mix, and are updated during the spring to reflect the most recent changes. In addition, the Patton $ projections include more detailed categories, like extra base hits for hitters, and homers allowed for pitchers.

Updates to the Update

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In the spirit of Let It All Hang Out, I’m going to keep a running commentary about changes I’m making to the April 2 update to the Patton $ Software. If you bought the software you should find it of interest. If you haven’t, maybe it will give you an insight into the thinking that goes into the projections and prices. And it sheds light on recent baseball news, too.

PROJECT RUSS OHLENDORFF

The problem with these guys is there is no way to know whether they’re going to be better than last year or not. So the projection reflects his skills but not the outcomes, because his history is so bad. But he could be better. The only solution is to split the difference:

100 IP 110H 40 BB 98K 5W 7L 13HR 4.77 ERA 13.5 Ratio 1.5 whip
PROJECT PHIL DUMATRAIT
He is unpredictable. His health isn’t good. Hasn’t been good since last June. He’s not due back until May, if all goes well, but why should it? And he’s thrown 100 awful major league innings. I’m not saying he might not put it together if he’s healthy, but a projection based on his past history would be too awful to roster, based on his health would argue against him playing, and a good projection would fly in the face of the evidence. If you like him, pick him up on reserve. I’m not suggesting that couldn’t work out (he was great last spring). But me putting numbers on  him would be meaningless.
BRANDON MORROW
I didn’t change him to Closer in the update. I guess I”m in denial. I’m sure he can do the job if healthy. I’m not sure he’ll stay healthy. I cut his IP in half, and gave him 20 saves. I think bidding $10 is fair in 5×5 AL maybe $13 in 4×4. But despite the chance of rewards I think there is a way better chance things will go wrong. I wouldn’t buy him unless his price was dirt cheap.
ROSS GLOAD
Hardly a talent to cling to, he could be disruptive in Florida. Why did they want him? This diminishes the value of Bonifacio, for sure. But it doesn’t kill it. Otherwise, lots could happen.