MLB

Home of the Braves?

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The Phoenix

My dad was a high school phenom. He was an amazing schoolboy pitcher, as they called them in those days, one of those guys who struck out 14 in 7 inning games. Regularly. He was scouted and signed, this is back in the 40s, and ended up in the Braves organization. The Boston Braves, that is.

I mention all this because the linked story about the Braves in Boston is an excellent introduction to baseball’s local appeal in Beantown (and its amazingly ragtag and robust local history there). And an expression of how important that locality is, even if a team can up and move. And then move again.

Carpenter to undergo elbow surgery

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Yahoo! Sports

This past Wednesday I wrote about Chris Carpenter:

So how is Carpenter doing? He threw Tuesday and said he felt fine, though we all know from experience that a pitcher always say that about his arm unless the darn thing is about to fall off (or maybe already has fallen off). Past history suggests that if all goes well, he’ll be back in two to three weeks, and maybe he’ll be able to slog through the season.

Or, of course, after a few more promising episodes throwing off a mound and then in a simulated game, he’ll be pulled from a rehab start and shut down to have surgery. He then might be in position to try to help the Cardinals secure a playoff spot in September.

We now know that it was the latter possibility that came to pass. I bring this up because I pursued Carpenter aggressively in Tout Wars NL and now face likely ruin this season in that league because of it. Carpenter’s demise is a reminder why the so-called experts don’t push the prices of any starting pitchers, which is why I’ve had pretty good success in recent years in Tout Wars loading up on starters.

Just not this year. Will I go after the best starter again next year? Despite the risk, if the prices for top starters stay low, I’ll be there.

Big Lead Brewers

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Baseball Musings

I’m not contesting the idea that the Brewers are for real, I suspect they are, but I think the idea that you can tell this because their two recent blow outs have flipped their Pythagorean Ratio is a fallacy. Bill James’ Pythagorean Ratio held that a team’s winning percentage should be the same as its Runs Scored (squared) divided by its Runs Allowed (squared). When a team’s winning percentage deviates from the predicted outcome, it’s a good time to look for reasons. These are usually a disproportionate proportion of one-run outcomes one way or the other (in other words, better or worse than average relief pitching or clutch hitting).

The point is that it’s an evaluative tool that draws its power over the long term of the season. A reminder that it is easy to overuse any and all of the tools at our disposal.

MLB – New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Box Score Friday April 20, 2007 – Yahoo! Sports

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A-Rod Homers Twice!

I was at the gym today and overheard two guys with a history talking about the Yankees.

A: He hit another one.

B: Let’s see what he does in September when they count.

A: Tonight it’s the Red Sox.

B: You’re already making excuses?

A: He’s been incredible.

B: Wait until September.

We now know that A-Rod did his part against the Sox, hitting two more homers (giving him 12 in 15 games, which I heard in the gym is the fastest pace ever at the start of the season–actually, earlier today it was 10 in 14 games that was fastest) but the bullpen coughed up the win in the 8th inning.

I’m on record believing that A-Rod’s choking last year was just a distortion of the way we look at situations. For instance, he led the league in lead changing RBI, so what if he struck out a few times when he could have padded that lead. The same things happen to everyone.

But the extroverted manage the situations better. Derek Jeter can screw something up and we remember all the good times. A-Rod screws up and we remember only the other screw ups. That’s what did A-Rod in last year.

Which is why I feel like we’re seeing a new, more emotive A-Rod this year. Maybe some of last year’s criticism got to this world famous introvert and made him see that if he wanted to enjoy the rest of what will surely be an illustrious career he better make sure he’s the one telling the story. Whether it was a friend, relative or some sort of shrink, the fist pumping hard running A-Rod who showed up for spring training has certainly changed the story.

Though hitting 12 homers in 15 games helps that, too. The real test will be when he strikes out with the bases loaded against the Sox in July, or even better August. And whether anyone then will remember the leads he gave his team in April that they squandered, which is why that strike out mattered at all.

Is Age the Problem?

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Baseball Musings

David Pinto doesn’t present any evidence that age is the reason for the drop in offensive production, he’s just spitballing here, but the accompanying chart, which shows average age per plate appearance from 1871 to last year, is eye opening. Not an answer, but a jumping off point for scores of questions.

Last Patton $ on Disk 2007 Update is Live

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Ask Rotoman News

For those who have been tracking the P$oD07 updates all spring, the final one was posted last night. It includes the Patton software, merge files for those looking for updated bid prices from Alex Patton, Rotoman, and Mike Fenger, my latest (and last) projections for the year, and text lists and an Excel file for those who simply want the stuff.

Thanks to all of this year ‘s and future customers. May you kick butt all season long.