Forecasting 2006 — Tom M. Tango and Marcel the Monkey

The Hardball Times

It has been clear for years that the science of player projection is something of a scam. There is a finite amount of stuff we can know about a player’s performance the next year and a certain amount that is stochastic, random, unknowable. I’ve put the unknowable part at about 25 percent, based on various ways of measuring the accuracy of my expert projections.

This big random component means that the lens of a single season tells us only a little about about a player’s actual abilities. And while we use these small slices to tell us more about the player’s game, as a player ages his game changes. The measures that matter for a 25 year old are different for a 30 year old and different still for a 35 year old. The very smart Tom Tango set out to see how much of the potentially knowable 75 percent he could project using a very raw set of weighted averages building in regressive factors, and writes about it here.

Mastersball Sold!

FantasyBaseball.com – The Official Website of the Masters of Fantasy Baseball

Jason Grey, Todd Zola, and Rob Leibowitz, the former Masters of Fantasy Baseball, have sold themselves to become the content providers at www.fantasybaseball.com. You have to admire the URL. The Masters have been frequent contributors to the Guide, and one hopes they’ll make tons of money and win even more experts league championships. Best of luck, guys.

The Amazing Fan Graphs

Baseball Stats, Graphs, Analysis | Fan Graphs

Have a month or two to do nothing but click on links on a website? Visit Fan Graphs. You’ll find stats here, but you’ll also find 70 charts for every player tracking daily and seasonal trends. Most immediately interesting to me were the daily graphs tracking AVG, OBP, SLG, K/9, BB/9, and on and on. Stats are compared to a ML average, so you can visually judge relative improvement or decline. Plus righty/lefty and home/away splits are also graphed. Simply awesome.

Mendoza Baseball

Mendoza Baseball

A friend tells me that this is a fantastic fantasy format. As best I can tell it’s a GM game. You try to get the best results using the fewest resources. But there is no salary cap (there is a luxury tax, however). Results are computed in team wins and losses based on the Expected Runs (Xr) formula for hitters, derived from 14 measures. The site is very handsome and the basic ideas of the game are sound. My only concern is that the scoring system will make the game play too flat, but if it achieves 50 percent of it’s apparent potential it should be an excellent experience.

Todd Zola on Position Scarcity

Mixed Nuts – Articles

There has been a bit of discussion about position scarcity recently, as there is every March really. Along the way I remembered this interesting series (there is a part III, which can be found at http://www.mixednutsleague.com/nuthouse3.shtml). Todd is one of the mastersball.com posse.
One of the reasons I remembered it was because it got me thinking about this issue and looking into it further. But more about that later. For now, reading Todd’s story is a good place to start.

USA Stats Sold!

Home of the official and original Rotisserie League

In case you haven’t heard, one of the two premium stats services, USA Stats, sold itself to the other, All Star Stats, this past week. USA Stats former owner, Bill Meyer, says the growing licensing issues in the fantasy realm, as MLB tries to gain control of all intellectual property attached to their baseball game, was an irritant but not really a factor. All Star Stats made a good offer at a time when he was looking to do something other than run a stats service for the rest of his life.

Bill grew USA Stats by buying out Jerry Heath’s Heath Data many moons ago and acquiring the official stat service of the Rotisserie League after that, so this is hardly the time to rail against consolidation, but Bill was a very nice and helpful guy who ran what always seemed to be a very friendly operation. He’ll be missed.

Where did I see this before?

Yahoo! Sports – Fantasy – Draft Day Dilemma: Abreu vs. Bay

I just happened upon this Brandon Funston story at Yahoo. It’s part of Funston’s Draft Day Dilemma series, which kicked off with that chestnut, Pujols or A-Rod? What is striking here are the cascade of similarities to an Ask Rotoman story I wrote for mlb.com last week.

I’d be shocked if Funston was cribbing from me, the venues are simply too public, but point this out so that Ask Rotoman readers don’t waste their time reading what is in essence the same story twice.

Fantasyland. Roto’s second best book.

Fantasyland: A Season on Baseball’s Lunatic Fringe by Sam Walker

It is an axiom that there is nothing more boring than hearing about someone else’s fantasy baseball team. Unless it’s their fantasy football team. Most of us figure this out pretty quickly, and those of us who don’t most likely live alone. Sam Walker doesn’t live alone, but when this Wall Street Journal sports columnist committed himself to winning Tout Wars his first season playing fantasy baseball he clearly knew that he wasn’t the story. Not all of it, anyway.

Which is why his book is such a hoot. Rather than adopt the solitary lifestyle of the typical fanatic Walker uses his baseball credentials and ample payroll (he spent close to $50K during his year of play trying to win Tout Wars AL 2004) to rub the fantasy game against the real game. And while he says that he hoped to use the sparks that flew to beat the so-called experts at their own game, his real subject here is the fire of baseball’s essence.

Is the game the domain of the grizzled scouts, the usually less-than-introspective ballplayers, the front office guys, the most diehard of fans, the usually less-than-introspective sabermetricians, or who? Walker has ingeniously woven the stories of all these unusually focussed people into one season in Tout Wars, during which he hired Sig Mehdal as his stat guy (Sig went on to contribute his injury database work to the Bill James Handbook, but that was later), and Nando, another fine fellow as his player biography expert, an astrologer (who perhaps he didn’t listen to closely enough), an exotic dancer (to mess with geeky minds during the Tout Wars auction) and a host of fantasy services, all with the aim of gaining a decisive edge.

But if that sounds like rotopass.com or Fantasyland coverthe story of a guy’s fantasy team, don’t be misled. Walker crisscrosses the country, meeting fantasy experts, his opponents (often the same guys) and many of the players he rosters and gets their reactions to his team, his proposed and executed trades (I’ve long enjoyed David Ortiz stories, but Ortiz’s response to Walker asking if he would mind being traded for Alfonzo Soriano is indelible), their feelings about what sabermetricians say about the way they play, and his attempts—as his season careers out of control—to get managers and general managers to take advantage of the special information he has gleaned from watching the game so closely (and listening to his advisors), but all of this is informed by his larger themes and not the question of whether his team will win or not.

Walker is a fine observer, a funny writer, and a good sport. His attempts to get Jose Guillen reinstated by the Angels late in 2004 because it would be more fair to his roto team is a clever bit of street theater that I suspect is much more successful in the telling than it was on the street. It also makes Mike Scioscia look good at exactly the moment he might have looked his worst. Walker’s book shines in his conversations with Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Bill Mueller, and other players, general managers and fantasy experts. Above all this is a baseball book.
It is while he with the first group that Walker shows us something new about the game, but he comes to feel quite comfortable with the so-called experts, and it is his profiles of these guys that are most impressive (because I know many of them I can vouch for his good eye) and risky. I enjoyed them immensely, but it is always interesting to read about people you know. Will the general reader? I suspect those who take BaseballHQ or Rotowire or Baseball Info Solutions or Wise Guy Baseball or Stats Inc or Matt Berry or even Baseball Prospectus (at least Joe Sheehan) seriously will get a kick out of this book above and beyond all the fun baseball info (on a theoretical level, Walker doesn’t break new ground, nor does he try to).

But the baseball stuff, the players and those who select them, and Walker’s lively storytelling will carry those who don’t give a hoot about Ron Shandler and Bill James and Keith Law and Mike Gimble and Dan Okrent and the other geeks whose stories he tells, through a gentle and appealling baseball book that pokes and prods our understanding of what the game is and how it works.

For my part, I was a founding member of Tout Wars. My friend and sometimes partner Alex Patton named the league, though I still like (given our roots in rejection of LABR) my alternative name: REBL (Rotisserie Experts Baseball League). And I would have loved to have someone like Sam Walker pick apart my game play the way he does that of Trace Wood (who won TW the year Sam writes about) and the other guys he played against that year. I had the pleasure of getting Sam to write for The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2006, not knowing that he had a four month old in the house, but reading his book I wish I played in the AL Tout Wars that year rather than the NL.

But that’s vanity. This may be the most fun book you can can read about fantasy baseball that isn’t really devoted to helping you win. And, unlike the Universal Baseball Association, Henry J. Waugh, Proprietor, by Robert Coover, which Walker doesn’t mention, it might actually help you win anyway.