Mike Gianella’s Blog

Roto Think Tank

Mike G. has been an energetic figure at the various Alex Patton sites over the years, and he drafted the Alex Patton LABR team in 2003. It turns out that Mike is a fine writer about the arcane roto issues that some of us obsess over endlessly, and his new website is a great place to explore the intricacies of what Alex calls the game’s Masochism.

I have to admit that some of you will not suck this discussion like sweet nectar, but I think that’s your loss. The fantasy game is played at the edges, where players eager to exploit inadequacies of the scoring system meet real scouts who believe they know something about the way players develop.

Good luck!

Baseball Musings

A Fresh Wash

The real work here is in the original post, but David Pinto’s take on Buck Showalter seems exactly right to me. He’s able to get a team close, but it is his departure that is the catalyst for actual success.

Not that it looks like the Rangers are that close. But in these days of parity it won’t take much to move them atop the AL West.

Manny now more scary than scary good

SportingNews.com – Brendan Roberts

When Brendan says that the TSN rankings have Manny Ramirez at No. 25 I thought, that’s silly. But I looked in the just-arrived Fantasy Baseball Guide and discovered that in our mock draft Manny was taken No. 30. And looking at the names that went ahead of him that doesn’t seem too far off the mark. Manny is an injury risk, he is getting older, he’s probably going to end up in Boston again (though he clearly doesn’t want to be), and he’s coming off a mildly down season. But assuming he makes it through spring training without any obvious physical problems, and that he could end up going anywhere from 12th to 35th, he’s a great pick at the low end of that range. And he might even prove to be a good one at the top end. Does that make him a sleeper?

But I Regress…

Dave Studeman — The Hardball Times

I always thought that Regression Analysis took its name from the fact that you start with the outputs and determine by regressing to see how important the inputs are, though I now have no idea whether that’s based on anything but my own magical thinking.

Dave Studeman’s story here is fascinating for the historical content (which has nothing to do with baseball, a little to do with statistics and much to do with other things) and because he does such clear work showing the dynamics of regression to the mean (which may well be the origin of the term) as they pertain to baseball.

At the end he references a story by Chone Smith about player projection which turns out to be an interesting rabbit hole in its own right, but that’s for another time.

Pro Baseball in Italy

Pro Baseball in Italy

My friend Lisa, who has spent a lot of time in Italy, sent me this link a month or so ago. The phenomenal thing is not only that he wrote only one post, but that it is of some interest to all of us who love baseball.

But I sure wish he’d tell us more of the Italian game.

Fantasy Football: Draft Tips

RotoRob

I’m not sure I should admit this, but I’m participating in my first fantasy football draft tonight. So, while looking for tips I came upon this pleasant advice from a guy named Andy at the site of a friend, Rob Blackstien, who has worked as editor and writer on both Fantasy Guides. I was worried about tracking Bye weeks, but Andy has made me a little less afraid. Now it’s time for a beer.

And, to be clear, Ask Rotoman will not become a fantasy football site (though you should check out the discussions at talk.askrotoman.com if you’re interested).

Time for Heads to Roll?

Baseball Musings

When I started reading this David Pinto post I started getting irked by his blunt attack on Ricciardi, accompanied by some good but not-climactic quotes.

But the real point here is his extension of Bill James’s idea of Families of Managers, from James’ excellent book “Baseball Managers” (who came up with that title?), and a rather potent idea that Joe Torre (the 2nd act) is the father of a Third Way of managing.

There has been much to criticize Torre for the last few years, but his approach has been direct and consistent, which is what gives Pinto’s idea legs. History will tell us more about Willie Randolph and Joe Girardi as managers than we know now, but their success this year makes Pinto’s thesis well worth discussing.