Ask Rotoman

Questions and answers

Ask Rotoman: Down on Upton? Raising the Aybar?

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Dear Rotoman:

Should I drop BJ Upton and take Erick Aybar? Upton has not hit anything.

Greg

Dear Greg:

The last three years BJ Upton has earned $20, $24 and $24. Erick Aybar has earned $13, $13 and $18.

Going into this season I expected Upton would be worth paying $27 for, while I priced Aybar at $18.

Upton is a little younger than Aybar, but both are in their late 20s, pretty much prime time for established players, which both of them are.

So far Upton has earned -$1, while Aybar has earned $1 after missing 15 days on the DL with a sore heel.

Since we’re just a month into the season, recent performance is really not a trusted indicator of performance the rest of the season, unless we can find a reason for Upton’s problems that suggest something new. So, what has changed since last year?

Well, he’s playing on a new team in a different league, so maybe there are some familiarity issues, with ballparks and pitchers, but one of the reasons for bumping his price was that he was moving from a pitcher’s park to a neutral run environment for his home games. That should offset, at least partly.

He’s been seeing the usual mix of pitches but hasn’t been getting ahead in the count quite as much as he did last year, but the difference isn’t great and he hasn’t hit when he’s been ahead. When he does hit the ball he’s hitting more ground balls and fewer flies and line drives, but these differences aren’t huge.

Upton has always been a hitter who works the count, walks a fair amount but strikes out a lot, leading to a low batting average. If that doesn’t bother you, however, he has good speed and home run power (which is no doubt why you rostered him). The alarming thing is that he’s striking out more this year than he ever has before (31 percent versus 25 percent of plate appearances).

The bottom line here, however, is that despite his struggles Upton is on pace to hit 18 homers and steal 18 bases, and he’s not going to hit .143 the rest of the way. If he’s struggling because he’s facing a fresh set of pitchers and/or because he’s carrying the burden of a big new contract, as the season goes along he’s going to get more familiar with the league and the parks and the hurlers, and the contract will become a lot less new. So figure he’ll bounce back, at least partly, and hit about .220 with 15-20 homers and 15-20 steals, and hope for more and better (which is what he’s done historically).

Erick Aybar will hit for a better average, figure about .290 or so, and steal a comparable number of bases, but he’s likely to hit fewer homers. Figure him for 5-10, more are unlikely.

At this point, who do you like? If batting average matters you probably should have bought Aybar on draft day, but obviously context changes as the season goes on (especially when you’re carrying someone who is hitting .140). Aybar will deliver a decent to good batting average, but not the counting numbers overall that Upton is likely to. But Upton does carry the threat of total failure this year. It does happen, especially with low contact-type hitters (see Adam Dunn’s 2011), so if you want to play it safe Aybar might be the better choice for you.

I would stick with Upton because of the potential upside, the one that I saw on draft day. But if BA matters to you Aybar could prove more valuable even if Upton bounces back. That’s the decision you’ll have to make based on your lineup.

Unevenly floppy,
Rotoman

Ps. I found this preseason poll at fantasypros.com.
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The Solid, the Shifty and the Fungible

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[Cue Ennio Morricone music here.]

The long and fun Tout Wars weekend is over. Drafts were held, summaries will be written (and posted at toutwars.com), and eventually games will be played. At no other time will more people write the words, “I like my team,” more often.

You can find the spreadsheet with all the leagues’ results here.

I spoke on Sirius XM after the auction and was asked about some of the players I bought, and while I was talking I couldn’t help thinking that this was for the most part a boring draft. Relentlessly and with few exceptions players (even starting pitchers this year) went for something close to my bid price. I, for the most part, bought the guys whose price stopped at or below the price I’d put to paper for them. My strategic goal was to buy stats and to acquire risky guys who might make an impact.

The goal for every fantasy team is to establish a powerful enough base that the breakout guys put you in contention to win. That’s what might happen out of the draft, but the real work is massaging the roster all season long to maximize in each category. Some combo of work, good timing and utter luck are what puts teams over the top. But first, they have to get into contention.

Here are my purchases with some notes on the players and their prices. As you’ll note, mostly boring, but I like my team.

THE SOLID

Rob Brantly ($7, $6) He’s the cleanup hitter! On a really crummy team! He’s got some power and shouldn’t crush my BA, and has the potential to do more.

Joey Votto (My Bid Price $37, I paid $37) Hey, he’s Joey Votto. Is he not a power hitter anymore? I don’t believe that, but if it’s true he will then be the most awesome hitter for average ever. There is the chance for profits here, he earned in the 40s in 2010, but mostly I want him to stay healthy all season.

Ryan Zimmerman ($27, $27) Third base is a ghost town once you get past the top five, and with Headley’s injury even he’s suspect. So, a solid producer at his price is a win. Every other third baseman who cost more than $10 exceeded his bid price, demonstrating the league’s sensitivity to getting shut out at the hot corner.

Zack Cozart ($12, $14) Having three $25+ guys at the time, I didn’t feel comfortable pushing Starlin Castro and extra buck. He went at my bid price. And Jimmy Rollins went for one under. As I pushed Cozart $2 past my price I regretted not going the extra dollar for the much better players, but he was the last full time SS available. His job is secure and even if he isn’t the best hitter in the world he has a bit of power/speed production. A bit.

Hunter Pence ($22, $21) One of the places where the Touts try to save money is in the midlevel outfielders, the guys who are not dominant either in power or speed. Pence is one of those guys, and capable of having a bigger year than this bid pays for.

Angel Pagan ($21, $19) Another Giant outfielder? Yes, but one who runs a lot. Guys like Cameron Maybin went for $25. Maybin’s like Pagan but younger with a worse batting average.

Denard Span ($15, $14) Another boring outfielder at the slightest of discounts, but Span has never had a season like the best he seems like he might be capable of. On a new team, despite a weakish spring, one hopes for more than what he’s done in the past. But if he does just that, I’m okay with it.

Scott Hairston ($7, $4) Once the prices drop below $10 the comparison doesn’t mean much. Hairston earned $18 last year in 350 AB. It wouldn’t take a lot to get him more playing time in Chicago (or released for that matter), so consider him cheap and likely to earn a bit of a profit with the chance of something more.

Yorvit Torrealba ($1, $1) A catcher in Colorado backing up a guy who is a bad catcher. Yorvit has some productive years behind him, and having taken a catcher who will start the year in the minors, I was looking for a puncher’s chance with a catcher in dollar days. Hello son.

Cliff Lee ($28, $26) I’ve knocked my starting pitching bids down quite a bit in prep for this draft, and was glad to see that pitcher prices were generally on par. Any of the top six or seven starters will earn out, unless he gets hurt. I chose Lee for no particular reason.

Zack Greinke ($21, $19) Maybe he was a little cheaper because of injury concerns, though he appears to be healthy at this point. He’s in a good ballpark in a lineup that costs a lot. Irresistible.

Mike Minor ($14, $12) I would have gladly gone to $14 on Minor, who seemed to put it all together in the second half last year. CBS and LABR landed in the $12 range, so I’m not claiming this is a bargain, but given the potential upside I was happy.

Marco Estrada ($10, $11) He’s a guy for whom my projection outpaces my bid price. He throws strikeouts and homers and if he can rein in the one he could have special upside.

Lance Lynn ($11, $11) Like Estrada, plenty of strikeouts. He’s kind of the opposite of Minor, in that he stumbled in the second half, but was overall just fine. While it would be great if all three of Minor/Estrada/Lynn were solid this year, you have to figure one will fail. But which one? That’s why I have three.

THE SHIFTY

Travis D’Arnaud (Minors, $5) One can argue that the money spent on D’Arnaud and Matt Adams could have been better spent buying Starlin Castro rather than Zack Cozart. I won’t argue with that, but once the barn door is open you have to adjust. I didn’t buy Castro. D’Arnaud isn’t a lock for the big leagues this year, but indications are he’ll get a chance come June or July. He’s a free-swinging power hitter, who may get off to a slow start offensively, but will quickly outearn his price here if he has any success at all. If he turns into Devin Mesoraco this year, I’ll be disappointed, and not all that surprised.

Matt Adams ($5, $5) He may or may not make the team at the start of the season, and doesn’t seem to have a regular job if he does, but they’re not going to let him languish. He’s too potent a hitter for that. Is he a big league star hitter? Borderline at that level, for sure, but he will hit for power if he gets the playing time. The other guys available at this price were Gaby Sanchez and Todd Helton. Either could be better, but neither could be much better.

Dee Gordon ($9, $8) As spring training winds down it looks like Gordon could end up marginalized despite Hanley Ramirez’s injury. My thought was that in 100 AB in the next month or so Gordon could steal 15 bases, but I paid too much given his shortcomings as a hitter and the possibility he’ll end up in Triple-A later this week. My fingers are crossed to ward off buyer’s remorse.

Jonathan Broxton ($5, $5) On my sheet I still had Broxton down at $10, his pre-Aroldys Chapman-as-closer price, but I didn’t pay up here out of confusion. He was my last buy and I had $5 left. He surely would have cost $3 if I hadn’t nominated at $6 (whoops, tiny print on the spreadsheet, adjusted down a buck) and spent my last $5. He was the best available pitching choice at that point by far, as a Closer in Waiting.

Kyuji Fujikawa ($9, $8) If I had bought Alfonso Soriano, who I dropped out too soon on because I wanted Carlos Quentin who was then bid out of my price range, I wouldn’t have had money for Fujikawa. But I did. I actually preferred Steve Cishek, but when he was bid up to his price I had to shift my sights to Fujikawa. Chris Liss spent $8 on Marmol (and bid $7 on Fujikawa, saying one of us is going to be glad he couldn’t bid more or didn’t have to). Given the situation, I’m fine with this, but it is no discount and is certainly risky. And I would have preferred Michael Fiers, who went for $7 (but might have gone higher because Derek Carty had the scratch at that point), but decided to get it settled earlier.

Drew Storen ($6, $2) Again, in the endgame the expected bid price doesn’t mean much. But Storen throws strikeouts and has a history as a closer, making him the Closer in Waiting (and likely to vulture a few as well).

THE FUNGIBLE

Daniel Descalso ($4, $3) I wanted Jordany Valdespin or Donovan Solano, but Valdespin’s price spiraled and when Descalso was nominated before Solano I pounced rather than being shut out. That’s how weak second base is. When Solano went for $2 I was full of regrets and remorse. Still am.

Tyler Moore ($2, $2) He was the best power threat (tee hee) on board at this point in the draft, with no clear path for any playing time at all except as DH during interleague.

Chris Capuano ($1, $1) Coming off a fine year, but lacking a clear role in the Dodgers rotation, let’s call him Best Available Arm and hope some team in a good ballpark that needs a pitcher trades for him.

THE RESERVES

Gregg Dobbs ($3, reserve) Because T’Arnaud is starting in the minors, and I drafted Torrealba, his replacement, into my utility slot, I wanted the best available hitter for some power with a big league job to fill that hole. That’s Dobbs, probably, which isn’t saying a lot. Can’t have too many Marlins.

Kolton Wong (minors, reserve) If he’s called up he’ll have more value than Daniel Descalso fer sure.

Alex Castellanos ($2, reserve) I was going for the best young hitter who might make an opening day team, looking for offensive options.

Freddie Galvis ($1, reserve) When I saw the Phillies play in spring training, Freddie led off the game with a sharp single to left field that he turned into a double. The crowd of Phillies phans went crazy. It turns out they love him after seeing him play sort of regularly last year. I was looking for another shot at 2B.

FOR A FEW DOLLARS MORE (a conclusion)

When a league plays the game as tightly as this one does your options are limited. I’d targeted Domonic Brown after seeing him play in spring training, but his success meant everyone knew what I knew, and Phil Hertz bumped him a buck or two past my price. Early on I might have pushed, but at that point my budget was stretched.

Mike Gianella had the most interesting draft, spending just $34 on pithcing. The problem with that is that his pitching isn’t very good, but he does have a lot of hitters at decent prices. He’s got talent, now he needs to rearrange it.

Lenny Melnick and Phil Hertz were the reason I stopped targeting guys. They both have their buys, and aren’t afraid to push their budgets to get them. When you collide you usually lose, one way or the other. I’d hoped to pick off Julio Teheran for a few bucks, but Phil took him all the way to $8. Playing agnostically, a phrase I think originates with Liss, let’s you find the bargains where they fall. For Gianella that meant on offense. For me, I worked to find them on both sides of the aisle.

The danger is that I will confuse bargains for my overreaches. That may be what happened with Dee Gordon, D’Arnaud and Adams, or those could each turn out to be a robust embrace of risk that pays off. I’m looking forward to finding out.

ASK ROTOMAN: Altuve v. Heyward

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Hi..

I’m in a 14 team .. 5×5 rotissire league that can keep players for $5 more then they were purchased the year before..

I have Jose Altuve at $1 (can be kept for $6) but I can trade him for Jason Heyward at $16 (Can be kept for $21)..

I’ve always loved Altuve but im not buying his magazine listed price as an over $20 player.. what are your thoughts on that deal???

“Head Over Heart”

Dear HoH:

If you really love Altuve you’ll keep him for $6. He earned $25 last year. Heyward earned $26, not that much more. So the question here is why would you distrust the $22 price in the Guide, and why would you distrust it so much that Heyward would look like a better keeper.

Remember: Who you keep is a function of who would save you the most money above their keeper price on draft day, assuming you want them on your team.

If you don’t want Altuve on your team, that’s fine, but here are some facts:

Last year Altuve earned $25 in 5×5, according to me. According to Alex Patton he earned $24 in 4×4. I think it’s safe to say in an AL only league he earned in the low to mid 20s.

This year, the CBS Sports experts league paid $24 for Altuve (that’s 5×5), while in LABR he went for $19. I think Altuve is worth $22 this year (a 23 year old coming off a $25 season can only be discounted so much), but even if you buy the LABR valuation, you’re saving $13 keeping him at $6.

Jason Heyward earned $28 in 5×5 last year, I say. Alex Patton says he earned $30 in 4×4.

This year, the CBS Sports expert league paid $28 for him, while in LABR he went for $30. I think he’s worth $28 this year, but even if you buy LABR’s price (and I’m not saying that’s wrong), you’re saving $9, which is less than you’re saving with Altuve.

Plus, of course, you’re spending more than three times as much to get the savings. We just gave every rounding edge to Heyward and the numbers still point to Altuve. I think you have to keep the smaller man.

Here’s another way to look at it, assuming 10 percent inflation in your league:

If you throw back Altuve, it’s going to cost you $22 to replace him, based on LABR’s low price. That’s $16 over his freeze price.

If you throw back Heyward, it’s going to cost you $33 to replace him, based on LABR’s high price. That’s $12 over his freeze price.

The bottom line is that you’ll do better freezing Altuve and buying Heyward on draft day than vice versa, even though Heyward is the better and more attractive player overall.

Quickly,
Rotoman

Historical Fantasy Prices

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Chris Liss has a history of trying to calculate historical fantasy prices. He recounts that history in a post at Rotowire that is well worth reading.

His post reminded me of my first post as a short-lived Baseball Prospectus writer back in 1999. I wrote a long impassioned screed hating on ESPN, my former employer, for totally misunderstanding the fantasy game and the informational needs of us players. BP Bowdlerized it, probably for my own good, but frustratingly. They left the results of my data driven look into baseball history intact.

What I did was calculate roto values, in league context, for every year in baseball from 1903. The results are interesting because of the way they demonstrate Stephen Jay Gould’s point about the way that a limited sample increases the relative achievement of the elite. The point, I think, is that in a small league with limited talent, the best players dominate in ways that can’t happen when the game is more universal and talent is more widely distributed.

(The results are far more useful in post WWII era, when the player population has stabilized, gradually. Those year-to-year numbers became the basis of the Magic Grid I started using back then to find comparable seasons in order to assess likeliness of performance (earnings) for different types of players based on their histories.)

What would it be like to play roto in 1915? My values win, hands down. That’s what they calculate. But Chris measures something else that has its own value.

ASK ROTOMAN: Calculating Inflation

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Rotoman,

Years ago The Fantasy Baseball Guide had a section where there was a formula for inflation in keeper leagues. I think maybe the article was from maybe seven to nine years ago? It may have been even 10 years ago. Would it be possible to have that formula again?

Thanks in advance,
Charles

Dear Charles:

To calculate inflation:

Subtract the bid prices of the frozen players from your total league budget. That leaves you with how much money will be available to spend in your auction.

Subtract the projected value of the frozen players from the total league budget. That leaves you with how much talent will be available to spend in your auction.

For instance, in a 12 team league the total budget is $3120. Let’s say the price of all the kept players is $500. Your league will have $2620 to spend.

If the projected value of the frozen players is $1000, your league will be chasing $2120 worth of talent with $2620 of money. Divide the talent into the money and you discover that your inflation rate is 24 percent.

Note that the inflation is usually not distributed evenly in the auction. You should allocate the $500 inflated dollars to players you want (being realistic about what other players might go for and distributing inflation to them, too). The danger is backing off the best players because their price is 24 percent over the “book” value, letting them go at par, and then getting stuck spending your inflated dollars in the endgame so you don’t leave money on the table.

Largely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Four-Letter Players Starting With C

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Dear Rotoman:

I’m in a points league, head-to-head just like fantasy football. Pitchers obviously get you more points, but would you trade away Cano to get Cain? I’m on the fence on this one.

“Tough Cs”

Dear TC:

The only way to give you a definitive answer is to understand how points are scored in your league and what the roster requirements are for your team.

But I can say that, just like in fantasy football, the gross number of points isn’t the important thing. Quarterbacks generally score more points than other positions, but the difference between the average QB and the replacement QB is generally less than the difference between the average RB and the the replacement RB.

You have the same issue here. What you have to determine is how many more points Matt Cain will score versus the pitcher who takes his place, then compare that to the difference between Robinson Cano and the second baseman who would replace him.

Without knowing your league settings I can’t tell you who rates better. And without knowing the makeup of your team (do you have a strong squad of hitters now, so you can afford to take a little hit to improve your pitching staff) it’s equally difficult to give you a definitive answer. But if you think about it this way I suspect an answer will become quickly obvious (or this really is a close call).

Until then, I’ll say: Cano.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Bonus Link: My friend Todd Zola has written the primer-to-end-all-primers on Head to Head Points over at ESPN. It looks like you need to be an Insider, but I include it here in case you are an Insider, or maybe you don’t need to be.

ASK ROTOMAN: A Pain in the Astros

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I am in AL only auction leagues. We use the $260 salary cap for a 5×5 league with 9 pitchers and 14 hitters. With the Houston Astros coming the AL, I am wonder what changes you might suggest. Do we add one more pitcher? Add another DH? How do we handle the minimum IP and AB requirements? Thanks for your thoughtful response.

“Honey, I Blew Up the American League”

Dear Honey:

Adding the Astros to the American League means that there will be about 5,500 more at bats available for a 12 team AL only fantasy league, and about 1,425 additional innings. This is a lot. These at bats and innings pitched dilute the pool by about 15 percent, so it’s going to make a difference. But how much of one?

A different way to look at it is to consider that the AL is adding one regular catcher, one regular first baseman, one regular second baseman, etc. etc. I’ll stop, I think you get the point. So the practical difference is that instead of 12 roto teams selecting 24 catchers out of a pool of (roughly) 28 AL catchers, the roto teams are taking 28 catchers out of a pool of 30. Two catchers don’t make the cut and are part of six undrafted catchers, rather than four. Since these two additions to the free agent pool are the worst available players, the total difference on your game will be negligible.

The same is true at every position. The number of quality players goes up a little, the amount of available stats goes up 15 percent, the improvement in the replacement pool is very small.

What rules changes should you make because of this? I think it’s a fair guess that if you don’t make any changes to your game it will be fine. You will have some additional players in the free agent pool, at least at the start of the season, but depending on your reserve rules I doubt this will make much difference (or that they’ll stay in the pool if they’re any help at all).

The increase in available stats will make it easier for teams to get to the minimum at bats and innings pitched. You don’t say what level you have for these, but in a 5×5 league they should be pretty irrelevant. The only reason to have them is to keep teams that are suffering from bad luck from desperately adopting a Sweeny-type plan on the fly during the season. It should be every team’s goal in 5×5 to collect as many AB and IP as possible, so raise these minimums if you think it might help, but it probably isn’t necessary.

In terms of roster configuration, I can report that in the American Dream League (AL, 4×4) last year we added a 10th pitcher as an experiment, and I don’t think anyone thought it made the game much better or much worse. It was fine. There’s every reason to go that way this year, but you probably won’t notice much of a difference.

In Tout Wars last year, we converted the fifth OF to a Swingman, essentially a second DH or a Pitcher. Team managers liked having the option to play a 10th pitcher when there wasn’t a worthwhile hitter available in the FA pool. There aren’t many leagues playing with this rule yet, but I think it’s a very natural progression. One alternative in your league might be to continue to roster five outfielders, and add a Utility Swingman, who could qualify at any position or be a pitcher, increasing your overall roster from 23 to 24 players.

I’m sure that would work, but I’m equally sure that if you do nothing no catastrophe will ensue.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Who Should I Keep?

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Rotoman: 

I am in a standard 5×5 keeper league with 12 teams. AL and NL. We can keep 3 players from one year to the next. If we keep a player we can’t draft in the round they were taken in the previous year. Just wondering who out of the following players you would keep. I have Matt Harvey, Fernando Rodney, Sergio Romo, Todd Frazier and Chris Davis all from the 27th round (final round of draft, most were free agent pick ups during 2012 so they qualify as the last round in the draft). I also have Jason Kipnis from the 10th round.  I can only keep three. Leaning towards Rodney, Davis and Kipnis. (I really like Harvey too though) Who would you keep?

“Is Kipnis A Keeper?”

Hey!

I think the question here is what is the difference between the late rounds and round 10. Kipnis is a good keep, but in the 10th round he’s a bargain by a round or two, maybe. While taking three guys from the rounds 25-27 means you have real players in your endgame. That’s real value.

Fernando Rodney is surprisingly old, but he was surprisingly solid last year. I’m not going to guarantee his continued success, but given what he showed you have to take a shot. He was too dominant to let go.

If Chris Davis was Rodney’s age I would caution against a repeat, but despite all the years of underachievement Davis has under his belt, he’s going to be 27 this year. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t come close to repeating this year.

As for Sergio Romo, Todd Frazier and Matt Harvey, all rank within a round of each other, somewhere around number 160. Since you have a closer in Rodney and a power hitter in Davis, it makes sense to me to take a shot at an ace in the last round. He’s riskier than the other two, but with more upside (and help to your team).

And I wouldn’t object to you reaching a little for Kipnis, if he’s the second baseman you want, but by not freezing him you also have the option of going for Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia, who will pump up the value of your 27th Round keepers.

Good luck!
Rotoman