Ask Rotoman

Questions and answers

ASK ROTOMAN: Pick a pitcher. Pick Two!

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Hey Rotoman:

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 Roto League. My pitching staff consists of Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Hisashi Iwakuma , Yordano Ventura,  and Tanner Roark, with Alex Cobb and Hyun-Jin Ryu  on The DL. Who do I drop Hyun-Jin Ryu or Yordano Ventura? Cobb will be replacing Tanner Roark.

“U Pick Pitchers”

Dear U:

This is a better problem to have than most. Starting a staff with Wainwright, Scherzer, Greinke and Iwakuma, even in a 12-team mixed league, takes a lot of the pressure off.

You seem pretty certain that Cobb for Roark is the first move, but with Ryu coming off the DL today, I thought it might be worthwhile looking at all four guys. Each has a story.

Here they are. The first number is their composite preseason price. The second is my bid price in preseason. The third is what they’ve earned so far (multiply by 3.5 for a full-season value). These are Only League prices, used as an index of value, not as a measure of worth in your mixed format:

Tanner Roark: ($4, $8, $4) He’s done a fairly good job so far for the Nationals. A fair number of grounders and strikeouts, plus a good defense behind him, has helped. He’s not overpowering enough to feel comfortable yet, but is a fine back of the rotation guy, even in mixed.

Yordano Ventura: ($7, $8, $6) As advertised, more than a strikeout an inning with good control. Very solid performance so far without the wins to gas the value, thanks to the Royals’ weak offense thus far.

Alex Cobb: ($18, $18, $3) He’d only made three starts before he was shut down with an oblique injury, one of the cascade of injuries to pitchers this season. But this wasn’t his arm, and he’s expected to be ready to start Thursday night against the A’s. He’s a groundball pitcher with a reasonable strikeout rate and good control. You have to activate him when he’s ready to go.

Hyun-Jin Ryu: ($15, $17, $3) He was shut down two weeks ago with some soreness in his pitching shoulder. He was supposedly not even given any imaging, the Dodgers just wanted to be careful he didn’t overdo it. He’s a moderate groundball pitcher with a decent but not great strikeout record, and good not great control.

When do they pitch?

Ryu: Tonight, the Mets in NY.
Cobb: Tomorrow, the A’s in Tampa.
Roark: Tonight, the Reds in DC, Monday, Marlins in DC
Ventura: Monday, Houston in KC.

I agree that replacing Roark with Cobb is a no brainer, so do that after tonight’s game. The Reds are crippled and on the road. Get an extra start.

I also agree that Ventura and Ryu is kind of a close call. My sense of adventure wants to say go with Ventura, the emerging ace, but common sense gives the nod to Ryu for a few reasons.

Ryu plays for a better team and should win more games. He has also been round the league a few times and hasn’t stumbled. He’s the safer choice, even as he comes off the DL.

Ventura is the exciting choice. He throws 96 mph consistently, with tough breaking pitches. But he’s young and has made only 12 major league starts. No way I’m predicting that he’s going to stumble in any big way, but he’s had an advantage so far that is going to fade a little. Does he have the moxie to adapt? We don’t know.

And does he have the stamina to throw the 150 or so additional innings he’s on pace for? There’s no way we can know that either.

More excitement or less excitement, that is the question. Your staff is good enough to take the risk, it’s also strong enough you don’t have to.

What a beautiful day. Let’s play Ryu!

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Ask Rotoman: Which Outfielder Should I Get Rid Of?

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Dear Rotoman:

My outfielders are Jason Heyward, Michael Morse, Colby Rasmus, and Domonic Brown. Who do I try and trade away? It’s a competitive, deep 12-team league. I need to trade one or two away with Ryan Braun coming off the DL Tuesday or I drop one of them and he gets picked up immediately.

Note that one of the OF spots is CF specific, 2 other OF and no UTIL.

– Heyward is projected to have the best year, and if sold now I’d be selling him for much less than I drafted him for. I drafted him since it’s kind of his live or die year, and players tend to excel around that time, and he should be a top 10 CF by the end of the year no?

– Morse could have another great year like 2009-20011, where he had 17 AB/HR and .300ish average. His .540 SLG is right on his 2011 30+ HR year. Could this be a throwback year?

– Colby Rasmus could finally be playing up to his potential as a first round pick by the Cards. Again I need a CF position specifically,  and he has potential to be kind of a Pedro Alvarezy all pop-swing away types. Plus the Jays lineup is killing it, so more pitches to hit and more plate appearances facing the bullpen. I know 5 HR 8R 12 RBI in the last 10 games isn’t a pace that can be kept up, but could his be a sign of what the rest of his year looks like?

– Brown can’t hit anything outside, but if he could figure it out, and he had a much better 2013 than either of the other 3. Now that pitchers found a hole in his swing, do you think he can adjust? I know he hit all those homers the first half of last year pretty short. He had the shortest average homerun distance, and they were always to right field. Will he ever live up to last year?

Who do I target? Anyone I should go for specifically? Do I try to pair a couple up and trade up / a trade they can’t refuse?

“Five Into Four”

Dear 5i4:

You’ve written the analysis yourself, I agree with almost all that you’ve said. But let’s look at a few data points.

2014 Cost: Heyward 23, Morse 13, Rasmus 14, Brown 23.

2014 Earnings: Heyward 2, Morse 6, Rasmus 4, Brown 3

ESPN Player Rater: Heyward 78, Morse 17, Rasmus 28, Brown 80

You have a different scoring system than either the 5×5 costs and earnings above, or the ESPN Rater, but we can see that in any system Morse and Rasmus are exceeding expectations and Heyward and Brown are lagging. Which is why you’re asking the question.

I have to admit, I find the slumps of Heyward and Brown disturbing. Heyward because it has gone on so long, Brown because it looked like he’d made real strides last year, and hasn’t looked like the same hitter this year. If the pitchers have found a real hole, and he can’t adjust, he’s going to have a problem.

But when I look at the numbers, the player I think you have to ditch is Michael Morse. He’s walking less than ever before, striking out more, hitting more infield flies (that’s bad), hitting a lot of his fly balls for homers. All of these are suggestive of a coming correction, an end to his hot start and a slump of sizable proportions.

But here’s the good news. Morse is probably your most tradeable player. His numbers don’t compare horribly to 2011 (he didn’t walk much then either). You might convince someone that he’s going to keep this up. Maybe even package him with Brown, to create a roster slot for the guy you get back to fill. It’s worth trying, anyway, and probably worth it for a team doing poorly to take some chances.

The other good news is that you’re getting Ryan Braun back. In a shallow league like yours, where only 36 outfielders play at a time, having sure Top 10 guys really helps.

Less is morse,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Who Do I Cut?

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Hi. My team name is Honey Nut Ichiros and I am currently in a Yahoo Fantasy League. Which of the following pitchers should I drop to allow space for Kershaw back from DL?

 Travis Wood
Carlos Martinez
Luke Gregerson
Tyler Clippard

“#mustbethehoney”

Dear MBTH:

Lucky you. Kershaw sure looked good his first game back from the DL.

In the preseason I had these four ranked: Martinez, Wood, Clippard, Gregerson.

I had Gregerson projected for two saves on the year, and he managed to get three while filling in for the demoted Jim Johnson back in mid-April. But it has been three weeks since he’s saved a game (and he’s blown three), and Johnson is back in the saddle. Well, sort of. He did save last night’s game.

Gregerson has some chance of getting more saves, so let’s look at the other guys.

Tyler Clippard’s ERA looks fine, but he’s walking six hitters per nine innings pitched, and he’s allowed some homers. His xERA is nearly 4.00. While he’s the likely Closer in Waiting in Washington, and saved a bunch of games in 2012, Rafael Soriano has a pretty good hold on the job for now.

Gregerson hasn’t been as dominating as Clippard, but he’s throwing better. Of these two, I’d release Clippard.

The other reliever you mentioned is Carlos Martinez. There was some thought he’d get a chance to start this year, and he’s enough of a talent to expect he’ll be a very good starter right off the bat, when he gets the chance. Curiously, he’s not been a dominant reliever, striking out 14 in 18.3 innings. He’s the Closer in Waiting in St. Louis, for now, but with Jason Motte expected back by the end of the month, and Trevor Rosenthal mostly getting the job done, Martinez’s value lies in a move into the rotation at some point.

I’m still leaning toward releasing Clippard, but Martinez has to pitch better and change roles to truly warrant that support. I think the chance that he will is reason enough to hold onto him.

Finally, Travis Wood. His ERA stinks, but in all other respects he looks exactly like the pitcher he was last year. That’s an innings-eating starter who should have a 3.75 to 4.00 ERA and decent WHIP. Not a huge earner, but a reliable and necessary cog on a team that has Clayton Kershaw to move the big gear.

There you have it: Cut Tyler Clippard, by a hair.

Sweetly,
Rotoman

 

 

Ask Rotoman: What price the good Polanco?

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Dear Rotoman:

I want to pick up Gregory Polanco before someone else grabs him. If he comes up and is decent I can keep him for 1/3 espn auction value for 2015. (3 year average is calculated from $0 + $0 + ESPN estimated price.) to grab him I have to drop one of my outfielders, we start 5. Who should I drop or should I leave Polanco for someone else?

J. Ellsbury – not dropping
B. Harper – in DL spot
C. Blackmon
C. Yelich
S. Victorino
C. Crisp
J. Heyward – leaning towards dropping him due to slow start

Much appreciated!
“Keeper Heaven”

Dear KH:

First off, and everybody should listen up, if you’re going to ask a keeper question you should give prices. It’s really hard to properly weigh a situation without the facts.

I’m assuming that The Good Polanco at one-third his FAAB price is going to be a good deal next year. But how good? Without the prices of your other guys, I can only guess.

For instance, how does Polanco’s projected keeper price compare to Heyward’s? I happen to love Heyward’s potential, but he’s still a child in a game played by mostly men, and he has done little to deserve that love. But hey, Love never asks.

Heyward is off to a slow start, but he’s getting on base, even though his BA stinks. He’s running more, and successfully, and his power numbers are in line with batting leadoff. Depressed. Which is what he’s been doing, and which hurts roto players who expected big power.

What isn’t in line with his performance or future expectations is his runs scored. Those are down now, for no apparent reason, and should grow as we go along, as long as he bats leadoff for the Braves. And given everything else, his batting average should be in the .250 range, which would put his OBP above .350. The runs will come.

But how much did he cost you? I don’t know, which matters in so far as you might keep him next year (or play him this year). If the answer is negative on both counts, you don’t really care how much he bounces back. He’s your second reserve outfielder and he’s kind of costly. Polanco may not be any better this year, but he’ll be way cheaper. It doesn’t matter what either do now, it seems, what matters is next year.

I’ll remind you, I’m mind reading here, but if that’s the case I would try to trade Heyward. You may think he stinks, but my guess is if I was in your league I’d want him more than my fifth outfielder. I might not give you much, depending on his future price, but something is better than nothing.

And then, if I stopped being my Heyward-acquiring self, and I was you, I’d make a reasonable bid to acquire Polanco. You don’t need him. He’s probably not going to help you this year. He might help you next year, but that’s not a guarantee. The cheaper you can get him the more value he’ll have for you going forward. Which is a reason not to bid too aggressively.

And if you lose him? Then you still have Jason Heyward, unless you already traded him to me. Hmm, this is getting complicated. You can sort out the timing, here’s the takeaway.

Heyward is doing his team a favor leading off, but is far better suited to batting fifth, where he can beat the hide off the baseball. And let his BA go to hell. So maybe he’s not in line to earn the way he did a couple years ago.

Gregory Polanco emerged last year as a minor league fave. He’s killing it in Triple-A this year, with a 1.070 OPS. My usual thing about minor leaguers versus major leaguers is to point out that at Polanco’s age today Heyward had already hit 70 major league homers. So, the rule of thumb is, don’t overreach for prospects.

But Polanco is a real talent who makes better contact than Heyward, but doesn’t walk as much. More importantly, he may end up in an RBI role in Pittsburgh, which suits him (and probably helps your team more). And the Pirates have every reason to promote him once he gets past the Super Two date, probably in early June.

Assuming he’s reasonably cheap, that makes him a keen pickup. And I use the keen adjective enthusiastically.

Not placidly,
Rotoman

 

 

Ask Rotoman: Bench Pressing

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Rotoman:

Should I start Jordan Zimmermann who has a two start week but is facing Greinke and Kazmir or start AJ Burnett, who has been good his last few starts. Also should I keep Cole Hamels in even though his last two starts weren’t great? Appreciate the help.

“Going Over Jordan”

Dear Going:

Over the past three years Zimmermann has been the 12th best starting pitcher in the fantasy game. Though he had a terrible start his second outing of the season, he’s been solid since then. I have to assume you’re thinking of benching him because you’re in a shallow league, but I don’t think any league is shallow enough to justify benching the 12th or 15th or 18th best starting pitcher in the game.

Look at it this way: If you played in a four-team league Zimmermann would be the third or fourth best starter on his team. Plus, in a two-start week he has extra value because he’ll throw extra strikeouts.

Of course, you’d rather have his two games come against the Astros and the Padres, but that can’t happen every week.

Now, if there is evidence that your chalk hurler is injured or has something else wrong, benching may be the thing to do. And while there is no evidence of anything wrong with Zimmermann, in fact he’s striking guys out at a higher rate than ever, Cole Hamels is just back from the DL and was down with the flu over the weekend.

I had a flu-like condition a few weeks ago and it lingered. The Phillies say Hamels will start on Tuesday, but I don’t think you can count on him this week. If you have a viable alternative, this might be a good time to make a move.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

 

How’m I Doing? The End of April Report

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I’m playing in three leagues this year. Tout Wars NL, American Dream League AL, XFL Mixed. This is about as close as I’ll get to the ideal of putting all one’s eggs in one basket, where attention is focused and mistakes hurt all season long.

So, how are things going?

TOUT WARS NL

The standings are bleak, and they’re not getting any better. Well, I did climb into 10th place last night, thanks to Todd’s nightmare.

Screenshot 2014-04-30 11.54.42

You can see all the league details here.

I went with an extreme Stars and Scrubs strategy here, and a pitching staff of Bumgarner, Rafael Soriano and a bunch of cheap guys. The hitting has not been helped by Ryan Zimmerman’s injury, and as expected picking up productive hitters via FAAB has not been easy. Tony Campana has helped with four steals. Otherwise, not so much from anyone.

The good news is that Nate McLouth should see more playing time due to Bryce Harper’s surgery, and I have an insane cushion in OBP. The question coming out of the auction was whether I would be able to deal OBP for productive hitters in other categories. It’s still too early to judge, but if I’m going to climb out of this hole it will be because someone saw lots of value in Joey Votto.

The other good news is that the pitching staff has been pretty good, despite their pathetic standing in WHIP. Cheap guys out of the draft, Wily Peralta and Tanner Roark, have been good. So has cheap FAAB pickup Alfredo Simon. Bumgarner’s WHIP has been a big problem, as has Edwin Jackson’s performance overall, though that has improved lately. There’s work to be done here, but if Jake Arrieta isn’t bad and Andrew Heaney shows up in June, there is some potential to be a pretty good staff.

Getting off to a bad start is a problem. It makes it more difficult to maneuver, and puts pressure on that leads to mistakes. My week by week finishes (11, 10, 10, 3) show some improvement. There is still lots of time, if I make the right moves.

AMERICAN DREAM LEAGUE

I’ve been in first or second all season thus far.

Screenshot 2014-04-30 12.10.51

I came out of the auction thinking I had a pretty strong team, both offensively and in pitching. Until last week I was languishing in homers, however, but then Kyle Seager busted out, and things are okay there.

Where I am suffering right now is stolen bases, despite having guys like Alex Rios, Shin Soo Choo, Erick Aybar, and Ian Kinsler. And wasn’t Eric Hosmer supposed to run a little, too? The problem is that all my speed guys are pushing into their thirties, so it shouldn’t be a surprise they’ve slowed down some. I’m going to need to do something about that.

Especially because I didn’t buy a closer, despite intentions to. I did buy Matt Thornton, as a CIW, and scored, sort of. He’s saved three games, which is better than nothing, but obviously if I don’t add steals I’m going to need to trade some speed for saves. It’s going to take a lot of luck to improve in both categories.

Last week was a rough one, because I lost Chris Sale and Shin Soo Choo for extended period, and dropped into second place. Shoo came back last night, and Sale is expected next week, probably. This team has broad enough talent that I should be able to compete, but it’s still early. Plenty more could go wrong.

XFL

This odd mixed league, with an auction in November and a 17-round reserve draft in March, is a keeper league. Alex Patton and I are co-owners.

Right now we have a strong offense, but have been hobbled by our big three starters, Jordan Zimmerman, Jered Weaver and Mike Minor. We also have a team construction problem. Since these guys aren’t big strikeout guys, and we’re playing three closers, we can’t really compete in strikeouts.

This being a mixed league (15 teams), the success of the secondary starters is very important and we’ve not gotten much out of Jenry Mejia, Felix Doubront, Jarred Cosart and some others. Henderson Alvarez has been excellent, but it’s hard to expect him to continue on this level.

This is a league in which teams play to win, and when that is clearly not in the cards they trade for next year’s keepers. We’re in poor enough shape to have started to think about the next step, but we have so much talent it’s hard to embrace failure so soon. Alex is chomping to make changes, I’m keeping my fingers crossed. But losing Archie Bradley is not a harbinger.

Screenshot 2014-04-30 12.25.56

ASK ROTOMAN: Holliday for Machado? Blame It On Cain.

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Hey Rotoman:

I have Longoria as my 3B, and have Manny Machado. I want to trade Machado to improve my outfield.

What do you think of this trade: I get Matt Holliday for Machado and Matt Cain?

“Machado Man”

Dear Macho:

Some music while we think about this.

First off, I don’t have enough information to judge. It sounds like you won’t miss Machado much, playing Longoria instead, but whose working week does Holliday end? And who is filling Cain’s shoes?

The problem here is that Cain has not been a Top-20 starter so far this year, and that makes it easy to undervalue him after a few bad outings. I recently l0oked at last year’s slow starting pitchers and found that pitchers who were expected to be good usually did okay after a bad start. Matt Cain was one of those guys last year, and he recovered, at least part way. A bad start doesn’t mean the rest of the season is a disaster.

Still, over the five months after his bad start Cain wasn’t the Cain anyone who bought him last year hoped for him to be. And it has to be disturbing that he’s starting this season in similar fashion. So I can understand disenchantment.

Okay, another musical interlude.

But I can’t really judge your trade because I’m not seeing all the pieces. The two parts that stand out are: It’s a great idea to upgrade your outfield by dealing a reserve corner. Not that it isn’t valuable to have a solid backup like Machado, but to win you probably have to maximize even if that’s a little risky. So that makes sense if Holliday is a nice bump on the guy you’re replacing.

But Matt Cain shouldn’t be a throw in. If you have a great staff without him, making him expendable because of his poor start, I don’t have a problem with that. But if you’re dealing him because you’re expecting him to be replacement level the rest of the way, I think there’s a fair chance you’re selling him a little short.

Ably,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Stanton for Braun?

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Rotoman:

I play in a Head to Head points league, with -1 for strikeouts and -1 for errors.

My friend requested a trade where  he gives me Giancarlo Stanton and I give him Ryan Braun. I was about to hit yes when I decided to look at the stats and Giancarlo strikes out an awful lot more than Braun. He also commits more errors. Should I go for the boom-or-bust Stanton, or keep my very solid Braun.

“First I Look At the Stats”

Screenshot 2014-04-25 18.25.57

Dear First:

Good idea to look at the stats. Here’s some back-of-the-envelope projections:

Braun should score a lot more runs (+30), hit roughly the same number of homers and drive in a lot more runs (+20). That’s the benefit of playing on a better team in a better stadium. Braun will have a higher batting average, and, oh, he will run more than Stanton, too.

Braun also has an advantage in strikeouts (125 to 140 for Stanton) and errors (6 vs. 8), but these differences are small beer.

On Stanton’s side, he’s still young and is likely to have some years in which he hits more homers than Braun ever did. But it’s hard to see that happening as long as he plays in Miami, so that’s not relevant this year.

Also on Stanton’s side, Braun is older, which usually leads to an increase in strikeouts at some point. But Braun isn’t worrisome old yet at all, so if you’re looking for an edge there you’re reaching.

Obviously, it’s your decision, but I’d hang onto Braun.

Conclusively,
Rotoman

 

ASK ROTOMAN: How Much Is Potential?

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Dear Rotoman:

For several years i have been waiting for two players to become regulars, hit around .280, and become true value players. No. 1 is Joaquin Arias (SF Giants) and Luis Valbuena (Chicago Cubs). I still think both have good potential, but they are not so young as they were a while ago. Do they ever reach their potential as i envision it?

“Two Prospects (Past Due)”

Dear TPPD:

It seems like a long time ago I had a bit of a thing for Luis Valbuena. I look back now on his stats and I’m mystified. I paid money for this guy? He has always been terrible at the major league level.

But he wasn’t always playing at the major league level. In Triple-A his stats were pretty good, year after year.

So, first of all, don’t rely on Triple-A stats for major league projections. Good major league candidates often skip Triple-A. And plenty of players who are pretty good but not major league ready thrive in Triple-A. We call them Quad-A, FWIW.

Luis Valbuena is one of those guys. Get over him. The clock has ticked and you were wrong about him. He can’t hit or run or hit for power. Over.

I never much cared about Joaquin Arias. Nice name, but he hasn’t nicked my platinum prospect shine.

Maybe that’s because as an offensive player he’s been offensive. He has had some defensive value, if you like Fangraph’s WAR evaluations. But even if you don’t, there is no way you can possibly say that Joaquin Arias is a breakout offensive candidate this year or in the future.

Potential is the ability to outperform expectations, which tend to settle in the middle. Luis Valbuena and Joaquin Arias may have better times, they could play better or they could be used better, but so far they are near to the dregs. At their age and previous performance, it would be lunacy to think they have any future potential.

And I think they serve as a good cautionary tale about putting too much faith in Triple-A stats and defensive prowess.  A good fantasy strategy is to avoid losers. Luis and Joaquin are doing fine in the real world, but in the fantasy world they’re losers.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: The Rich Get Richer

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Rotoman:

6×6, 8-team head-to-head categories league.  I just got Jose Reyes back from the DL, so who should I drop from the following:

Jose Altuve ($23)
Chase Utley ($17)
Dee Gordon ($7)
George Springer ($10)

Thanks.
“Reyes of Light”

Dear RoL:

Oh, the agony of the shallow league. I’m not going to address 6×6 and Head to Head issues, since you don’t specify categories and H2H mostly ups the randomness of winning and losing rather than adding any strategic nuance.

The numbers in the parentheses above are what those players were going for in preseason auctions. Jose Reyes, by the way, went for $25 or so. So, the obvious answer would be to drop Gordon., but I can understand your reluctance. He’s already stolen 10 bases and while he isn’t going to continue to hit .365, if he hits .270 on the year he’s going to steal a lot of bases.

Jose Altuve is off to a solid start, making him one of the best second basemen in the game, so it’s hard to drop him, and Chase Utley is off to a monster start and has more power than Altuve, Gordon and Reyes, so you have to hold onto him.

Which leaves Springer as the odd man out. He was the surprise promotion last week, and there is a lot of excitement about him because he has a nice power/speed combo. There are also serious questions about his contact rate, and he’s struck out five times in 15 plate appearances already—on track with his Triple-A numbers, which could prove a problem.

One of the agonies of playing in a shallow league is deciding between excellent or exciting players. If Springer goes on to hit 15 homers this year, you may look back and wish you’d kept him rather than Dee Gordon, but at this point Springer’s risk of failure is high enough I think you have to go with the speedy middle infielder.

Sincerely,
Rotoman