Rotoman

ESPN.com: Pedro Martinez

AL 4×4 league…what should Pedro go for this year???

There is a lot to be learned from spring training. Health issues, obvously, affect everyone’s price, and especially this guy.

In LABR he went for $34 and I certainly would have said $35. But my stomach would have been churning. By some measures, making only 18 starts last year, he earned close to $34. Still, he’s one catastrophic tear from being worth zilch.

If he’s healthy as the season opens, coming off a good camp, he’ll go for $45. And he might be worth it.

Mr. Man:

Do you think the winning score in a competitive fantasy league will be higher or lower? Here’s why I ask: in our very competitive league (ten-team, AL only 5X5 keeper), we haven’t had any one new for about four years. In that time, the winning score dropped from 83, to 80.5, to 77, finally to 70.5. Also, the winner the last two years had to wait until the last game was played to know if he beat out the competition; margins were 1.5 and 1 point.

The question is more than academic. I used to figure an average of third-place in each category was a good goal to draft for a winner. Now, though, that likely is too high. Or, maybe I can punt one (or two) categories and still win, or, at least, not draft for all categories on draft day (auction, $260 limit, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers), and pick up what I missed later in trades.

What have you noticed, if anything, along those lines?

“Low-Scoring Winner”

Sure. A few points:

The more people play together the more they learn how to play each other, which usually means the standings are tighter. In the American Dreams League the year before last we had a three way tie for second place, and a first place team just two points ahead. We haven’t had a new owner in seven years.

It doesn’t always work out that way. Sometimes somebody gets lucky or does something really smart and they run away with it. But, in general, the more people play together the more likely the results are going to be tight.

And the tighter the results, the fewer points it takes to win, the better the situation is for dumping a category. I’ve been writing about this a lot this week and I hope I’ve made it clear: Dump a category (or even two) in competitive leagues.

In a league where one team or another wins all the categories and scores 104 points, dumping a category is a stupid idea.

Fantasy Baseball: Draft Results

I can’t imagine that there is any single more valuable tool for those of you in draft leagues than this.

Eric Young

Dear Rotoman,

Will Eric Young’s move to Milwaukee lead to a significant increase in steals? Davey Lopes seems sure to turn him loose more often than Don Baylor did, does that increase EY’s value?

Sincerely,
Looking for a steal

Without looking into it too deeply (figuring out how much they ran before Baylor’s and Lopes’ arrival with the Cubs and Brewers), what’s striking is that Don Baylor sent runners 103 times last year, Lopes sent them 102. Both had a success rate of 65%, which is about the breakeven rate.

Much more of a factor is Young’s health and his age. It would be natural for a 35 year old to run less, though there have been some notable recent exceptions to that canard. Still, I wouldn’t count on him running any more than he ran last year and maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

It’s doubtful anyone else will be expecting him to.

Ask Rotoman at MLB.com

The new column is up at mlb.com. The above link should take you to it. There are some answers to questions about strategy: Dumping AVG, Converting 5×5 prices to 4×4 and from a large league to a smaller one, Playing for losers and dealing with Position Scarcity.

If you asked a question about these issues but didn’t get an answer, please check this out.

If you wrote before Monday and haven’t gotten an answer, please feel free to write again. I think I’m caught up through Monday night. A fair number of answers are returned as undeliverable because of bad addresses. If you want an answer please include your right email address.

I’ve been spending a lot of time today sorting out the pages. Team by Team is going to the RotoTouts.com front page. That will make more room for pithy comments over here, and answers to reader questions, for which I’m mostly caught up.

Check out the new column tomorrow afternoon at mlb.com, for a bunch of strategy answers.

The St. Louis Cardinals

Catcher: Of the Cards catchers Mike Matheny may get the most time, but he’s not enough of an offensive player to buy. Bid: Reserve. Eli Marrero hits more and fields less, and given Tony La Russa’s propensity to make guys multi-positional he could see enough time in the OF to generate surprising value. Bid: $2. Mike DiFelice could see most of the backup catcher time, but doesn’t hit as much as Matheny. Bid: No.

First Base: Tino Martinez is coming off a fine year, but unless his woes in 1999 and 2000 were caused by languor, motivation won’t be enough. Bid: $13.

Second Base: Fernando Vina is just arriving in camp as I write this (March 4), and is coming off his career year, a pace he’s unlikely to maintain. Bid: $15 Miguel Cairo can have some value in La Russa’s scheme. Bid: $2.

Shortstop: Edgar Renteria was awful in the first half last year, but his second half revived belief that he’ll bust out soon. It also probably kills any chance that he’ll go cheaply. Bid: $20.

Third Base: Albert Pujols says he’s been working like crazy to avoid any sophomore slump. Still, such early achievement is followed by a little retrenchment. Bid: $27.

Left Field: Placido Polanco may or may not be the regular left fielder. He could see time spelling Pujols, Renteria and Vina, too. Bid: $10. So Taguchi arrives from Japan with a reputation as a teammate but not peer of Ichiro. Bid: $4. Kerry Robinson can steal some bases, though he’s not guaranteed a roster spot. Bid: Reserve. Al Martin is the wild card here. If he plays well in camp he could secure at least part of the left field job. But given recent history he could bust quickly. Bid: $3.

Center Field: Jim Edmonds is always nursing a hurt or two, which makes him a little risky. Bid: $24.

Right Field: This is J.D. Drew’s year. Really. Bid: $25.

Starters: Darryl Kile had surgery in November and won’t throw in a game until Mid-March. The bigger the injury discount the better. Bid: $10.

Matt Morris is clearly a very good pitcher when he’s healthy. While there are no signs that he’s unhealthy just now, his history has to be a concern. Bid: $18 (and that won’t get him).

Woody Williams profiles as someone who is going to slip, but he really hasn’t raised himself so high that he has a place to slip from. Bid: $10.

Bud Smith isn’t a sure thing to be great, but he has a great chance to be good. Bid: $10.

Rich Ankiel started yesterday (March 3) for the first time and walked the first two batters he faced, then threw 36 of the next 44 pitches for strikes. Bid: $10. Andy Benes is most likely a fill-in if others fail. Bid: Reserve. Garret Stephenson feels good right now, but hasn’t pitched in two years. Bid: Reserve.

Closer: Jason Isringhausen finished strong last year. Bid: $23.

Steve Kline will get saves in La Russa’s rotation. Bid: $6. So will Dave Veres, who could also be traded. Bid: $6.

Mike Timlin is usually a little helpful. Bid: $1. Gene Stechshulte could be a good waiver wire pickup, but isn’t worth bidding on.

The Seattle Mariners

Catcher: Maybe Ben Davis will progress, but you have to worry about his low batting average. And Safeco isn’t the sort of place for a hitter to boost his power numbers. Bid: $2.
Dan Wilson could hit just as much as Davis. Bid: $1.

First Base: John Olerud is as steady as they come, except when he hits .360. Bid: $19.

Second Base: Bret Boone. Can he repeat? Of course not, but I’ve seen convincing arguments that he could be very productive again. Bid: $20.

Shortstop: Carlos Guillen isn’t a great roto player. Bid: $6. Luis Ugueto is a Rule 5 draftee who may stick, though contending teams usually decide they can’t afford the roster spot. Bid: No.

Third Base: Jeff Cirillo didn’t experience the spike upwards when he went to Coors, so maybe he won’t experience the spike downwards. Bid: $20.

Outfield: Ruben Sierra had a fine 2001 but it’s going to be hard for him to do it again. Bid: $8

Mike Cameron improved last year and there’s little reason to think it won’t stick. Bid: $29

Ichiro Suzuki was huge last year, in large part because no only did he have a high average but he had tremendous number of at bats. He had the Mariners’ only two hits today against the Padres. Bid: $42.

Desi Relaford is going to play some left field and some third base and maybe some shortstop and he’ll steal some bases. Bid: $4.

He won’t steal as many as Mark McLemore. Bid: $12.

Alex Arias will back up in the infield. Bid: No.

Charles Gipson is versatile, but really can’t hit a lick. Bid: No.

DH: Edgar Martinez is getting older. Bid: $22.

Starters: Freddy Garcia is the ace. Bid: $26.

Jamie Moyer is older than Edgar Martinez. Bid: $10.

Paul Abbott is coming off one of the luckiest of recent seasons. Bid: $6.

James Baldwin is ripe, and quite possibly in the right place. Bid: $4.

Joel Pineiro went for $15 in LABR AL. That’s way too much, though it’s what he earned in 2001. Bid: $9.

John Halama isn’t making it happen. Bid: Reserve.

Ryan Anderson will start the season in the minors and isn’t a sure thing to advance even if he’s healthy, given the team’s pitching depth. Bid: Reserve.

Gil Meche should start the year in the minors and would be the first call up if there were injuries, if he proves his shoulder healthy. Bid: Reserve.

Closer: Kazuhiro Sasaki slowed down in the second half last year. Bid: $32.

Jeff Nelson has earned $10 each of the last two years, but that doesn’t mean you should pay that. Bid: $3.

Arthur Rhodes had a huge 2001 campaign. Maybe he’ll be better again than he was before that. Bid: $3.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa would be a closer in waiting on most teams. Bid: $2.

The The Atlanta Braves

Catcher: Javy Lopez has always struck out nearly three times for every walk. He’s getting older, too, which isn’t a good thing for a catcher. Bid: $13. Backups are Paul Bako and Eddie Perez. Neither is worth taking.

First Base: I’m doubtful that Wes Helms will hit enough. Bid: $6. I’m doubtful that Julio Franco can stay healthy enough. Bid: $2. Can BJ Surhoff play first base? Bid: $6.

Second Base: Marcus Giles should get all the playing time here he can stand. Bid: $5.

Shortstop: Rafael Furcal, if healthy, should pick up where he was before injuries slowed him down last year. And now he’s actually legally old enough to drink. Hey, he was old enough last year, too! Bid: $21. Wilson Betemit might start the year in the minors, but if anything happens to Furcal he could see some time in the bigs. Bid: $1.

Third Base: Vinny Castilla won’t help your batting average. If you’re lucky he’ll hit you some homers. Bid: $8.

Outfield: Chipper Jones could return to third, I suppose, if Castilla’s defense is as woeful as the Devil Rays thought it was last year. Most importantly, he qualifies at third this year in most leagues. Bid: $35

Andruw Jones is working with Otis Nixon, trying to pick up those stolen bases. This is the year to get him cheap. Bid: $28.

Gary Sheffield is a big plus for this team. Bid: $30.

Other reserves include Bernard Gilkey, who might be worth a buck if Surhoff is traded or is moved to first base, but right now doesn’t appear to be a factor, and Keith Lockhart, who isn’t someone to buy or put on reserve, but who may be someone to claim on waivers.

Starters: Greg Maddux went for peanuts in the LABR NL draft, as did all the good starters except Randy Johnson. Two of the last three years have been a little disappointing, but two of the last three have ranked him in the Top Five of NL starters. Bid: $32.

Tom Glavine has had two genuinely bad years in the last three. He’s still someone you want to take a chance with, but at a modest price. Bid: $12.

Kevin Millwood still has some sex appeal because of how good he was in 1999. He hasn’t come close to repeating. Bid: $9.

Jason Marquis is poised to break out, he just need to cut down on his walks. That isn’t a sure thing. Bid: $5.

Albie Lopez finished strong last year and while that shouldn’t get you too excited, that is a reason to take a chance. Bid: Reserve or $1.

There aren’t any apparent fill ins here, or minor leaguers poised to step forward, though the Braves do have some good pitching prospects who could advance quickly.

Relievers: John Smoltz is a very good pitcher who did a very good job in limited time last year closing games. Bid: $24

Mike Remlinger could start, if needed, or could close, if needed. Bid: $2

Kerry Ligtenberg can pitch, so if a need arises he might advance. Bid: $1

Tim Spooneybarger has great stuff and a good name and not much chance at opportunity this year. Bid: $1

National League LABR draft

Okay, I didn’t leave yet, and Alex added another player. Another one I asked him to get: Cliff Politte for $2.

At some point in the next two hours Juan Encarnacion is going to be nominated. I said: Hope to get him for $6 but I guarantee he’s a money-maker up to $10. Let’s see what happens, shall we?