Rotoman

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ESPN.com – MLB – Box Score

Dear Rotoman,

All the experts say Juan Encarcion is done including yourself. However, I have this nagging gut feeling that benching him will kill me, for he has single-handedly saved my team in the Outfield when Griffey went down. I am more loyal to him than Griffey. My question is, Have you ever had a gut feeling on something like this, and would it be wrong to ignore the experts and go with this feeling.

As I write this, I find the experts have shot me in the foot, for I benched Encarcion and he just hit another homer.

Your confused follower.

I think what I said was that Encarnacion was the Cincinnati outfielder with the least trade value. I also said, weeks ago, that until the Reds could put together a trade, the Reds would probably rotate their five players (Griffey, Encarnacion, Casey, Dunn and Kearns) between four positions. Or maybe I said that’s what they should do.

In any case, that’s what they’re now doing.

I believe that you should never do anything because an expert says so, unless you believe the expert is right. What’s the point of playing the game if you don’t follow your own instincts and opinions? Sure, part of the fun is reading other people’s opinions. And some of that reading and listening may change your mind.

But you’re playing the game. If you simply follow the lead of others you’re letting them play the game with your team, and what’s the fun in that?

I happen to have Juan Encarnacion on my Tout Wars team in that so-called experts league. Twelve other so-called experts let me have him for $10, an amount he’s already earned even if he doesn’t play another game. The beauty of this game we play is the way it allows us to test out mettle and perceptions, our diligence and acumen against other worthy opponents, using the world of baseball as the field of knowledge we aspire to master.

I’m happy to have you reading my writing. I don’t really cotton to being an expert, but I read a lot and think a lot and try to pass along what I know entertainingly. And I hope some time I help you and others think through a thought. But you have to play the game.

85115691

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Out in Arizona

I should also have pointed out that the DiamondBacks have a genuine fine-hitting prospect down in Tucson, hitting .354 with 8 HR, 33 RBI and 11 doubles. He played outfield in college but is learning to play first base (he has 3 errors this year). The Scouting Notebook 2002 compares him to Mark Grace, in part because he hasn’t show a lot of HR power in his career so far, but he’s hit lots of doubles.

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ESPN.com: MLB – Bautista to miss at least three months with injury

I somehow missed this story yesterday. Bautista will be missed by the teams you picked him up. He was demonstrating that his breakout post-season in 2001 wasn’t a fluke.

The notion that Quinton McCracken is going to end up a regular outfielder in Arizona is amusing, at best. McCracken has gotten chances to play on some of the weakest offensive teams in modern history (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, need I say more?) and hasn’t been able to contribute, much less stick. And in his prime he was only able to hit .290 in Colorado.

He’s no longer in his prime and won’t be a factor.

Because David Delucci has never really shown much and Jose Guillen has shown too much, it seems entirely plausible that Durazo could end up in the outfield and Mark Grace could become a more or less regular first baseman again. Stranger things have happened.

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Peter –

I thought you might put something on your page about how much to FAAB Giambi for. I have some thoughts.

I play in a 4×4 Ultra NL with $100 FAAB. I can’t spend all my money on Giambi, as I spent $5 on Mateo (gamble did not pay off) and then $12 on Estalella (gamble did pay off). But I did advise a friend to go high 90s on Giambi, and this is why.

There are usually two FAAB strategies. One is to fiddle with your team from week to week, hope to strike it lucky with a pickup who becomes a closer or replaces an injured starter. The other is to wait til the trading deadline and blow your wad on the biggest names to cross leagues.

But those guys are only on your team for two months. If you get Giambi, you get him for four months. Even if he only plays 2/3 of the time, he’s still probably worth more than 2 months of, for example, Bobby Higginson. Plus, with a strike looming, you have to spend now in any league that has decided to call an early victor if a strike happens.

Thoughts?

Thanks to Aaron for the above thoughts, which make my job a lot easier. Since I’m gently wrassling with the same issue in Tout Wars (in which the FAAB deadline is 5pm today, the better for us so-called experts to demonstrate what we’re doing) I thought Aaron’s missive was timely. Here’s my take:

I agree.

While there may be better players who will come over to the NL from the AL this year, there may not be. And most of the MLB dump trades will come, as Aaron points out, in late July, nine weeks from now. If you have a hole in your outfield or nearly a hole, that’s nearly one-third of the season you’ll have cash and no player. Unless you get very lucky at midseason Giambi is going to do more for you than any pickup.

And, of course, luck has a lot to do with it. Plenty of teams are going to make aggressive bids for Giambi and not get him. They, of course, can fall back on the hope that Carlos Lee will be traded soon, or Raul Mondesi, or Shannon Stewart, or… You get the idea.

Only one team in each league can guarantee that they get Jeremy, and that’s by going all in. Is he worth it? That is completely dependent on your situation. In leagues that have $0 FAAB bidding I think it’s going to take an all-in bid to get him. If you play in a league in which exhausting FAAB exhausts your chances (apart from trading) for player acquisition, then maybe you’ll be able to get him for less than all in.

My RotoTouts.com Tout Wars team is pretty strong, even though we’ve suffered a complete middle reliever meltdown this week that dropped us into fourth place. So I’m going to bid a lot (say $35) of my FAAB budget (of $51) and I know I won’t get him. But if I was in a desperate situation and I had all my original $100 I think I’d spend it to get him.

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Jeremy Giambi: Wow.

I can’t see anything in his line this year that indicates he’s a bum as a hitter. His average has dropped of late, but his OBP is still pushing .400. Seems to me he’s the best lead-off hitter the A’s had. Or now have.

My argument against Giambi in recent years has been based on the fact that the Royals dumped him (though they got far more for him than the A’s did) because he didn’t get along with Tony Muser (a little general). Now he’s been dumped again, with far less ceremony, for dime-a-dozen John Mabry. In between, Giambi was busted for some pot possession in the off-season.

Without making any specific judgments it seems to me likely that Giambi wore out his welcome in Oakland. Why did they get so little for him? Either because they didn’t care, they just wanted to be shut of him, or because everyone else knows.

I suspect we’ll find out a little more soon, but the deal still won’t make any sense.

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MLB.com Fantasy

The new Ask Rotoman column went up yesterday at mlb.com, if you’re interested in Paul Byrd, CC Sabathia, Erubiel Durazo and AJ Burnett, among others.

And now a programming note: Rotoman has been enlisted to edit yet another fantasy football magazine (#3 in a series), which means that time has suddenly gotten frighteningly tight.

Please keep sending your questions. I’ll do my best to answer personally, though time is really tight. And I’ll use the most universal and interesting of them (and funniest, too) in the weekly column.

But there may not be much posting here. Because time is tight.

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rednot051702

There’s a small bit of news here from the Cincinnati Post. Brady Clark’s agent says the Reds say his client is not going down when Griffey comes back, though the article doesn’t really sound definitive.

For instance, Could it be possible the Reds would send out Mateo and Kearns, as they did at the end of spring training? The article doesn’t even discuss the possibility, though the third Reds outfielder with options is Kearns.

I don’t think so, but if this issue is keeping you up here is more grist.

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Mixed 5×5 10 team league. What is your take on Durazo and his return?

Yahoo! Sports: MLB – Durazo activated, takes over starting job at first

He’s back. The big question is what is he going to do?

Baseball Prospectus seems to think that he can do no wrong, though he’s 28 years old and hasn’t had more than 200 AB in a season.

I can’t really argue in good conscience that he’s going to flop. He’s got too much power and too much discipline to fail completely, and with Mark Grace clearly in decline, the Diamondbacks don’t have other apparent options.

But clearly Ruby (as Bob Brenly calls him, and why not) is brittle boned, and clearly the Diamondbacks weren’t convinced he was going to be a big league every day first baseman (or why would they have signed Grace?).

In the RotoWire magazine I projected him to hit .287 with 20 homers and 74 RBI. He’s got three-quarters of a season to do it, rather than the whole year. If he makes it he’ll be worth more like $18 than $13, especially in today’s desultory offensive climate.

As I said, I don’t think he’s going to flop, but I don’t see him as the second coming of Jesus or Abraham or whoever it is BP compares him to.

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Houston-Pittsburgh Box

Josh Fogg didn’t take the loss against Roy Oswalt tonight. That means in his last three starts he’s 2-0 with one no decision. His opponents in those games were Randy Johnson once and Oswalt twice.

That’s a total of 19 innings, five runs, two walks, 13 strikeouts and 12 hits.