Rotoman

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ESPN.com – MLB – Scoreboard

I noticed that Luis Gonzalez, Wiki Gonzalez and Alex Gonzalez all hit homers today and wondered what the record was for most guys with the same last name hitting homers on the same day?

As you know I’ve been kind of tied up, but I did try to post on Friday. Blogger ate my home work. Whenever that happens I swear I will save every post before I post, and I do, for a while. But then nothing bad happens and I get lazy and blammo. Blogger is really a great system, but it’s not terribly reliable. That doesn’t make it less great, it just means one has to make adjustments.

It seems that since the end of April, when I advised someone to take Jay Gibbons over the then very much struggling Tim Salmon, Salmon has been a substantially better ballplayer. How much better?

AB H AVG R HR RBI SB
Salmon: 126 43 .341 26 8 27 4
Gibbons: 112 26 .232 14 3 16 0

Since I compiled these stats Salmon has dinged twice, Gibbons once.

The fact is I got it wrong. Salmon had been pathetic for so long I violated rule number one, which is Don’t ever underestimate the capability of vets with track records to resurrect their careers. You could also call it the Gary Gaetti rule. Or the Vinny Castilla rule.

I like taking credit when I get something right. Well, this one I got wrong. Sorry.

LaRussa on Mark McGwire

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So, what I’m wondering is this:

Tony LaRussa says Mark McGwire took no steroids. But Mark McGwire says he took andro, which helps promote the growth of the body’s own hormones at steroidal levels. The two years or so McGwire took andro his injury wracked body become suddenly quite resilient and he broke Roger Maris’ record.

McGwire stopped taking andro because of the hue and cry about it and soon had to retire because his andro-less body was unable to sustain the strain.

I know that doesn’t in any causal way prove anything, but shouldn’t it be talked about as much or more than the goofy anecdote about Brady Anderson’s 50 homer year? Wouldn’t it be interesting to hear McGwire’s take on this, or La Russa’s?

BTW, while I personally wouldn’t take anything that made my testicle shrink to the size of peas, especially if it made me prone to rages and zit-faced self-hatred (hey, been there and done that naturally a long time ago), it’s hard for me to see how the lines between allowed and disallowed performance enhancing techniques aren’t always going to be blurred. Banning the drugs seems like a simple thing, but it isn’t going to make the problem go away.

As Malcom Gladwell said to Rob Neyer last week, the reason Barry Bonds can say unequivocably that he doesn’t take steroids is because he doesn’t. Steroids are last year’s or last generations performance enhancer. If Bonds is taking something it’s something newer, something harder to detect, something that may be found naturally in the body. And no doubt when the testers figure out how to figure out what and how much of it there are, Bonds (or whomever is actually taking performance enhancing drugs, because we don’t really know) will have moved onto something else.

I’m not saying that everything should be mindlessly allowed, but there are a deep philosophical and practical issues that are begging for resolution. Banning whatever isn’t going to much difference at all without that.

A reader writes about road saves

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A reader wrote in today about yesterday’s mlb.com column:

Rotoman,

Save Me’s hypothesis about why closers get more saves on the road is wrong. The plain fact of the matter is that closers get more saves on the road because the home team can not get a save if they go into the ninth tied or behind or the game goes into extra innings. The visitors always have the possibility for a save no matter what the game situation. As I am sure you are aware of this, I thought maybe you could dispel this crazy notion that managers only put closers into save situations on the road. Overanalyzed hogwash was indeed Save Me’s theory. Thanks.

It didn’t actually occur to me that Save Me was saying that closers got more saves on the road for any reason other than the obvious one. If you have a lead as the visiting team in the ninth inning, you have a save situation. I think Save Me was implying that managers are more likely to use their closer in a tie game in the ninth when they’re at home, because from that point on there will be no save situation for a winning home team.

But whatever. If anyone was unclear on this they shouldn’t be. Closers get more saves on the road for structural reasons, not because of any changeable usage issues.

And while I’m at it about yesterday’s mlb.com column, it had one of those gotcha’s. I expressed my full confidence in the column that Keith Foulke would get it together, and he was then summarily dismissed from his job as closer. Everyone is saying he’s going to get the job back, he just needs to get back on track. If you own him, don’t dump him. If you covet him, I don’t think his price could get much cheaper.

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MLB.com Fantasy: Ask Rotoman

The new column is up at mlb.com. In one of the questions a reader asked about a strategy of sitting closers when they’re at home. He rightly ascertained that closers save about 55 percent of their games on the road. It also turns out that they win nearly all their games at home.

All of which is interesting, but not very useful in roto leagues. But he plays in a league that allows free substitution, but limits the number of days relievers can be on the roster. So, by taking an extra closer and rotating these guys in only when they’re on the road, he gains a five percent edge in saves.

It also turns out his league counts Losses, and closers lose more games than they win, and they lose most of them at home, too. Another reason to sit them when they’re at home.

This type of research and thinking is essential in games that allow free substitution. It isn’t that a five percent edge is always going to work out, but if it comes without additional cost you’d be crazy not to exploit it.

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MLB.com Fantasy: Rotoman’s Dollar Values

The dollar values for May are finally posted at mlb.com. I delivered them late and my editor graciously did not bite my head off.

I’m trying to keep up with your questions but I am failing right now. I have too many hours of work to finish each day to be able to take the time to answer all emails individually. You will find answers to some of your questions in the mlb.com column that appears tomorrow,.

Thanks for writing.

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ESPN.com: MLB – Reds add Branyan in trade with Indians

Lot’s of Reds news today. Last night Junior Griffey’s right hamstring locked up. That’s not the hammy that knocked him out of large parts of 2000 and 2001. It’s also not as bad a strain, according to the Reds’ trainer, as it could be. But Junior sounds frustrated and he hasn’t shown much resilience bouncing back from whatever cuts him down.

And anyway, since he’s come back none of the Reds’ outfielders have been hitting.

Bob Boone says Branyan will be a pinch-hitter utility guy, which makes a certain amount of sense. “In the sixth inning you don’t worry so much about the strikeout,” Boone said, “but you do like the homer.”

How is it that Dave Kingman got all those at bats?

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The new column is up at mlb.com. I think, I haven’t gone to check.

Too busy on the football magazine. I think I lost a number of reader questions last week. If you didn’t get an answer, that’s why. They were in the queue one day and then I couldn’t find them. My hosting service changed mail servers, so that might explain it partly. I didn’t get mail for a full day.

Feel free to write again. I’m trying to answer all of them individually, though I can’t promise.

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ESPN.com – MLB – Box Score

I was watching the Red Sox-Yankees game tonight on the tube and saw Tony Clark have three of the worst at bats of all time against David Wells. He was helplessly behind Wells’ fastball, woefully overmatched by his curve and unable to adjust to any changes of speed.

I managed to miss Clark’s at bat against Mike Stanton (that’s the AB he dinged on) but I can tell you that his homer was a gift for fantasy players, and more a testament to Stanton’s ineffectiveness than Clark’s skills.

Tony used to be one of my favorite players. He had a long swing when he reached the bigs, but he reined it in and appeared to be headed for a glorious career. I believed, at the time, he represented the best a hitter could accomplish, overcoming all the instincts that got him to the bigs so that he might thrive in the bigs.

I may be making excuses (for myself as an analyst, not Tony) but I think Clark’s problems stem from his bad back. That said, I will be surprised if Clark gets back on track. I’ve watched him work up-close in Lakeland, and seen him hit enough to still believe in his desire and intelligence. But while the spirit may be willing, the body is no longer there.

Other notes: Bernie Williams is still looking clueless in center field, a condition that has persisted since his father took sick and died last year. His recent hot streak at the plate overshadows what appears to be a steady decline.

The Yankees are very bad defensively. They’re slow and not particularly adept with the leather. I think a case can be made that they’re below average at every position, except maybe shortstop and catcher, where they aren’t great. They’ve been hitting the ball lately, but that isn’t going to last, and I suspect that soon they will look as bad as they did early in the season.

Lou Merloni made a couple of wonderful plays at second base, and Derek Lowe was fabulous. He was physically completely out of rhythm, but managed to throw just enough strikes to work his way out of a series of jams (thanks in large part to Merloni). I’m not checking the box score, but I think Lowe walked five and didn’t record a strikeout. Two rain delays didn’t help him, but it was a wonderful performance because of all the trouble he squeaked through.

Final note: I’m still working on the football magazine and really shouldn’t have watched any baseball at all. And I really shouldn’t be trying to write coherent notes, because I don’t have time. But I had a ton of fun sneaking peeks at this game. Perhaps absence makes the heart grow fonder…

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There’s a new column up at mlb.com, rantings and ravings about trades and the players in the big leagues who will be the best players in baseball in five years.

Also, if you’ve been following the Erubiel Durazo story this week, he’s been benched for ordinary rest, benched against Livan Hernandez for reasons we’re unsure of and benched because the hand that hurt so badly he missed six weeks of the season was hurting again.

Pardon me, and I know he’s going to hit six homers tonight to make a monkey of me again, but if you’re counting on him to be some kind of star, I think you’re going to be disappointed.

Just as I love all the hand-wringing at Baseball Prospectus about Jeremy Giambi, I’m betting that Durazo ultimately confounds their aggressively singular view of the world, too. The point is that there are human elements to all this, and if you stick too closely to the metrics you may just end up championing Roberto Petagine long past anyone cares.

Cheers.