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Yahoo! Sports: Verducci–The Year After Effect

I’m not entirely convinced that the increase in workload Verducci describes is much of an indicator for future problems by young pitchers. The fact is that young pitchers usually see such a dramatic increase in their innings pitched because they are having a successful season. Regression to the mean would explain why their ERA and win totals the next year might decrease. For instance, to count Mark Buehrle last year as someone who declined because his ERA got worse last year, doesn’t seem particularly helpful.

So far there is little conclusive evidence about a pitcher’s work load that offers a prescriptive solution. The fact of it is, as Verducci says, that there are many factors that determine a pitcher’s ability to stay healthy.

And still, I’m downgrading Ben Sheets and Jake Peavy this year.

ESPN.com: MLB – Red Sox get the better of Contreras in first meeting

It’s so hard not to draw conclusions about spring training performance, but McAdam does a fair job of describing what happened, and reminding us that there is a long way to go before the games count.

I have to say, I read, “Contreras relied more on a splitter (which he sometimes carelessly left up in the strike zone), a changeup, and a slider,” and I think about his heater, which should be in the mid-90s when he’s loose and ready, and I hope he starts the season in the bullpen, where his price will be depressed.

If you’ve tried to check out PattonandCo.com but haven’t been able to log in, we’re mortified to tell you that problems with the host servers have caused problems for not only P&Co.com but all the programmer’s other clients sites as well.

The good news is that when they get it sorted out (soon, they keep telling us), all should work as good as ever. Or better. So, thanks for your patience. If you haven’t gotten in yet, believe me when I say it’s worth it.

Jayson Stark’s Rumblings and Grumblings

Nifty little look at the collapsing free agent market this year. It doesn’t look like too many of these cheap-o players got stiffed, exactly, but that the owners are finally letting the market do it’s work driving down prices. And since this is a market, isn’t some team going to capitalize on its competitors low-balling? Sean Lahmans (I think) has pointed out that the team with the highest paid player hasn’t won the World Series in something like 25 years, which is something for fantasy owners to think about.

So, you might be wondering, what did I learn and what did I say at the First Pitch Forums this weekend?

I seem to have jumped all over Brent Butler and Carlos Lee as my sleeper picks this year. Actually I listed a lot of guys last week in the mlb.com column, hitters who I thought would improve. This week we’ll do the same thing for pitchers. Butler didn’t make the list last week, mostly because he’s a true sleeper. He could win the full time job, or end up with 175 AB. He swings at everything but usually makes contact, which isn’t a bad thing in Coors. And he has some power. I don’t think he’s going to grow into a star but I know where I’m going for a $5 middle infielder in my NL auction.

I have to give total props to Ron Shandler and Rick Wilton, who writes as Dr. HQ on Ron’s web site and for the Hot Sheet, which doesn’t seem to have a connection to Baseballl Weekly any longer so I’m not sure what the address is.

My favorite bits from those guys: Adam Dunn had a partying problem last year. He’ll be better prepared this year. Trot Nixon gave up the snufff and the 25 pounds of muscle he added in the off season is a lot of compensatory donuts.

There was lots of talk about various situations. Almost everyone thinks that the Boston bullpen is going to be a disaster. Or at least a mess. I think it’s going to be a lot more orderly than most expect, with each guy quickly assuming a role for which he is able to prepare. Mike Timlin, I think will get many of the saves, but they will be more equally distributed than usual because every situation from the 7th on will be treated as a save situation.

Nobody talked about who would close in Kansas City.

ESPN Transactions

I don’t know why this tickles me so much but this will be the last day that the ESPN trannies will be showing the Feb 24, 2002 transactions for February 24, 2003. I’m not sure what it means that nobody has fixed this. Nobody is reading? Nah. Nobody cares? Nah. There’s no easy way to contact anyone at ESPN.com to tell them something is screwed up? Yep.

Now it will be fun to see if Joe Crede and Miguel Olivo continue to be sent down on Feb 24, as well as Chuck Smith being traded to the Rockies and all sorts of other stuff, after they archive the page. I’m rooting.

ROTODOJO AL Mock Draft

Mark Haverty, who put together the Mixed League Mock for the Guide 2003, put together single-league mocks this spring and I participated in the AL version.

He includes a page of comments by the participants that offers some insight into strategy and the vagaries of the drafting process. If you find this sort of thing of interest, I think it’s well worth checking out., though the early date means we really don’t have good info on who the closers are in Tampa and KC, and I was able to pick up Kevin Millar late because he signed when it was my pick.

MLB.com Fantasy

My hitting projections are now posted at mlb.com. Pitchers should be posted soon.

Because I’m stubborn and really do think it’s time for Vlad to find out that it isn’t all fun and games, I’m predicting him for a falloff in power. I’ve spent $57 for him in the XFL, so I’m hoping I’m wrong, but I’m sticking with the prediction.

If you see anythinge else that looks askew, I’d like to hear about it. Thanks.

ESPN.com – MLB – MLB Transactions

I don’t know how long it’s going to stay up, but right now the trannie page at ESPN is showing the Feb 24, 2002 page, rather than Feb 24, 2003..

Did you know that Joe Crede and Miquel Oliva were sent to Charlotte today? I almost plotzed.

ESPN.com: MLB – Interest high for Bechler collectibles

I find it just a little astouding that there are “Bechler collectibles,” and even more incredible that there are idiots, um, hobbyists who think there will be Bechler collectibles a year from now.