The season starts today, apart from one game last night, and that means the American Dream League held it’s auction yesterday. I figure I should put my chin on the line and show you what I did. If you hate this sort of thing please feel free to skip:
I could keep seven players. I chose Joe Crede 10, Herb Perry 1, Melvin Mora 6, Karim Garcia 10, Rick Reed 17, Ismael Valdez 6, Ugueth Urbina 22.
I didn’t keep Jeff Weaver 23 and Travis Hafner, because I thought I’d be able to get them cheaper, and Magglio Orodonez 42, because my four hitting keeps brought with them such low averages that I decided to dump AVG.
To dump average you really don’t dump it per se, you just focus on players with bad batting averages who are otherwise productive. If you can get a guy with a good average below his price, no problem, but it’s even better to get a guy who is more productive with a low average.
In recent years, rather than draft from a complete player list, I’ve put together a sub-list and budget by position, of players who fit my needs at various prices. Ron Shandler suggests looking at groupings of similar players, to give you a better shot at sticking with your plan. I find it sufficient to have alternatives, so that if I can’t buy the expensive outfielder I covet, I can buy an expensive first baseman. Or vice versa.
The players I focused on in the auction were: Mike Cameron, Raul Mondesi, Ramon Hernandez, Carlos Pena, Troy Glaus or Tony Batista, Jay Gibbons, Chris Woodward, Gary Matthews, Milton Bradley. There were others, but these were the key guys.
I didn’t get Glaus or Batista, Gibbons, Woodward, Matthews or Bradley, all of whom went for substantially more than I wanted to pay. Here are the hitters I ended up with:
Ramon Hernandez 8: A dollar less than I thought I’d have to pay. His bad average is scarey, but he’s the right age to break out. And he has real power on a team that could be very productive.
AJ Pierzynski 10: I had a few extra dollars available because I didn’t get Troy Glaus, and snagged AJ while price enforcing. His problem, for me, is that he has a nice batting average. My goal is to deal him for a more typical catcher and help elsewhere.
Rafael Palmeiro 25: Also after losing Glaus, he was the last of the big power hitters. I did end up paying for some batting average here, but he might not deliver it. And he should deliver lots of power.
Crede: A freeze who thumps.
Perry: A freeze mostly because he’s a buck. I’ll replace him next Monday, then hope he gets some playing time when he’s healthy. If he’s healthy.
Willie Bloomquist 5: Late in the game I had about $20 for 5 open spots. There were no big players left and I decided to pick off the guys I liked rather than patiently waiting deeper into the end game. Bloomquist is much better as a $2 pickup, but he should see some playing time and steal some bases. I hope.
Mora: Watching his batting average gradually sink all season long last year was unpleasant. This year I get to focus on those homer and stolen bases.
Mike Young 6: I had him priced a few dollars higher. I don’t think Blalock is a threat for playing time. The reports on his ability to turn the pivot have been fairly grim. And even so, Young could move to center field. And within hours of my purchase he hit a three-run homer.
K Garcia: My last reserve pick last year was so hot in August and September, it’s hard to know what to expect. I expect him to hit about .250 with a bunch of homers and disappointing RBI.
Mike Cameron 29: He was the guy I thought I had to have. Take his bad batting average out of the equation and he may well be worth $29, though I’d hoped to pay $26 or so.
Raul Mondesi 15: With Pittsburgh eliminated as a potential trading partner, and Mondesi appearing to be working hard to keep things civil with the Yankees, this could work out to be a fantastic bargain.
Eric Owens 6: I was terribly concerned about speed and got Owens for a few dollars less than I thought I’d have to pay. He’s the fourth outfielder in Anaheim and should see at least as much time as Orlando Palmeiro has the last 20 or 30 years he held the job. And Owens should do so much more with it.
Eugene Kingsale 7: He’ll steal some bases, which is what I wanted, on a team that has little to lose, at least as long as he holds the job. Of that I’m far from confident.
Carlos Pena 19: As with Cameron, this was a price a couple bucks higher than I’d hoped to pay, but I felt I needed him. As soon as I got him I realized that by filling my DH slot fairly early, I lost a ton of flexibility, and I would have been better off getting the similar (but outfield qualifying) Jay Gibbons, who ended up going for $20.
In fact, prices on the top players were all high, even though the putative inflation rate in this very modest keeper league was at most five percent. Over the years we seem to have realized that you go out and get the best players, while at the low end you end up lucking into the surprises.
As for pitching:
Reed: I like him. He earned this last year. He’s an injury risk, but he’s darned good when he’s healthy.
Valdez: I may well have been able to get him cheaper, but maybe not. And I have a good feeling about him, even though he moves into a hitters park. I got a win out of him last night, but will be ready to bail quickly if he stumbles.
Urbina: I got him at a discount last year because he was coming back from injury. That’s what keeps are all about. And there’s something comforting about keeping a cheap closer in a year when there is so much flux at the position.
Freddy Garcia 22: Many top starters were frozen, and guys like Buehrle $30 and Weaver $24, made me concerned. Halladay went for $25 early, and clearly is preferable, but I like Garcia, so I’m not freaking out, yet.
Andy Pettitte 19: You see what’s happening to pitcher prices. I’d targeted Pettitte, Washburn and Weaver, hoping to get two of them for a total of $34 or so. Washburn went for $20, Weaver for $24. That makes Pettitte a bargain.
Robert Person 2: My last pick. I always get Person (actually I tried to get John Thomson, but he was stolen away by someone with more money). I think more of him than most, but if he’s healthy and can bring strikes, I’ll take my chances.
LaTroy Hawkins 4: Should post good innings and maybe some wins. With a nice shot at some saves if something happens to Everyday Eddie.
Ryan Bukvich 6: This was probably foolish. I don’t believe Bukvich throws enough strikes to hold onto the job that Mike MacDougal is going to lose in Kansas City because he doesn’t throw enough strikes. But I do think he could end up with a shot at the closer job for at least part of the year. I wish I’d spend this money earlier on someone better. MacDougall went for $12.
Lance Carter 5: I do think Carter is going to end up saving some, if not all, the games in Tampa Bay. Colome went for $6.
This year we cut the reserve list down to seven. The previous few years it was nine. Before that it was 12. The reason for the trimming is to try to get more players in the free agent pool. What has happened is that we’ve learned that in most cases taking the sexy minor leaguer is a mistake, and you’re better loading up on fifth starers and backup infielders. This leaves few players available for waivers. What we’ve also noticed is that as you get deeper in the reserve rounds the good picks become more random. Fewer picks, we hope, mean more free agents and more skill. We’ll see.
I took with the 9th pick in each round:
Pete Walker, proverbial fifth starter. He pitched very well for much of last year.
Armando Rios, who looked good this spring, and who I’ll be able to use as a replacement for Herb Perry who is on the DL.
Todd Sears had a nice spring and should see big league time at some point this year.
Mike Restovich would be a likely call up if a plague fell upon the Twins.
Albie Lopez is my pick to be the KC closer, if it isn’t Jason Grimsley, or Ryan Bukvich, or Mike MacDougal. He could also start if the fab five fail.
Jermaine Clark lasted a long time and probably doesn’t have much value right now, but makes a nice backup to Mike Young, and has some speed. When the usual spate of injuries whack the Rangers, maybe he’ll go where Jason Romano before him failed.
Shane Reynolds is out there and by all reports is making headway. Houston escaped some obligations by releasing him, which doesn’t preclude him being effective in any number of rotations, some of them in the American League.
That’s it. The Bonemen 2003, in first place after one game (Valdes win, Urbina save, Young homer).
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