peter

Fantasy baseball advice for those who ask.

A Fantasy Sports Stock Market Done Right?

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PROTRADE: Home

I’ve only spent 15 minutes on the site, where I learned that my immediate “friend” Derrek Lee lists all the members of the Chicago Cubs as his “friend”s (where am I?), but I get the distinct feeling that someone has gotten the virtual stock market right. How it works out will depend on how free they let the shorts roam, and how real money plays a part (I’m not clear about this).

The “analysis” offered that I’ve seen mimics broader cable TV analysis, but it seems at Protrade everyone gets their own blog, so in time reliable reporters and analysts might prevail (if there’s a reason for them to persist, it doesn’t look like there is a meritocratic payment system for analysts yet).

But most importantly the scoring system is clear, so if they can convert their virtual financial system into a real one there is a gambling game here that might warrant some real attention. Stay tuned.

Same Pitchers, Different Stats

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Same Pitchers Different Stats 2006

This is an excel file about 100K.

We’ve run this chart in the Guide in the past, when we’ve had an open page, and I had a request from a reader that I post it. Here’s what the caption said in the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2005:

ERA and Ratio do a decent job of describing what a pitcher did, but not necessarily everything about how well they did. While putting together the magazine we consistently look at the BB/9, K/9, and HR/9 metrics. These tell us how well a pitcher kept runners off base, got outs without the ball being put into play, and kept the ball in the park. These pitchers are ranked by their relative effectiveness in these three measures last year, from best to worst.

The other two columns show the opponents batting average against a pitcher on balls in play (HR and strikeouts are removed), and for all at bats. We’re less sure what to do with these, though a high AVG-BIP is thought to indicate that the pitcher had some bad luck. Have fun.

Looking at the results, it’s clear that comparisons between starters and relievers don’t have much validity. And with two 100 IP starters near the top of the chart, workload probably plays a part there, too.

Still, if Ben Sheets can stay healthy he clearly has his effectiveness back. He’s not going to be cheap but he could be a bargain.

As Season Approaches, Some Topics Should Be Off Limits

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New York Times

I can’t believe that once or twice I’ve actually defended Murray Chass. I started reading this story in the paper and nodded off before I got to the Bernie Williams rant of obviousness, thereby missing the explosive display of no-nothingism spewed about sabermetric investigation at the end. Such willful ignorance on the part of a reporter (though Seth Mnookin has ably disputed the validity of that label as regards Chass) should be grounds for dismissal.

Unless he’s just trying to be funny, in which case someone should hit the big gong.

Mike Gianella’s Blog

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Roto Think Tank

Mike G. has been an energetic figure at the various Alex Patton sites over the years, and he drafted the Alex Patton LABR team in 2003. It turns out that Mike is a fine writer about the arcane roto issues that some of us obsess over endlessly, and his new website is a great place to explore the intricacies of what Alex calls the game’s Masochism.

I have to admit that some of you will not suck this discussion like sweet nectar, but I think that’s your loss. The fantasy game is played at the edges, where players eager to exploit inadequacies of the scoring system meet real scouts who believe they know something about the way players develop.

Good luck!

Baseball Musings

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A Fresh Wash

The real work here is in the original post, but David Pinto’s take on Buck Showalter seems exactly right to me. He’s able to get a team close, but it is his departure that is the catalyst for actual success.

Not that it looks like the Rangers are that close. But in these days of parity it won’t take much to move them atop the AL West.