peter

Fantasy baseball advice for those who ask.

Updates to the Update

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In the spirit of Let It All Hang Out, I’m going to keep a running commentary about changes I’m making to the April 2 update to the Patton $ Software. If you bought the software you should find it of interest. If you haven’t, maybe it will give you an insight into the thinking that goes into the projections and prices. And it sheds light on recent baseball news, too.

PROJECT RUSS OHLENDORFF

The problem with these guys is there is no way to know whether they’re going to be better than last year or not. So the projection reflects his skills but not the outcomes, because his history is so bad. But he could be better. The only solution is to split the difference:

100 IP 110H 40 BB 98K 5W 7L 13HR 4.77 ERA 13.5 Ratio 1.5 whip
PROJECT PHIL DUMATRAIT
He is unpredictable. His health isn’t good. Hasn’t been good since last June. He’s not due back until May, if all goes well, but why should it? And he’s thrown 100 awful major league innings. I’m not saying he might not put it together if he’s healthy, but a projection based on his past history would be too awful to roster, based on his health would argue against him playing, and a good projection would fly in the face of the evidence. If you like him, pick him up on reserve. I’m not suggesting that couldn’t work out (he was great last spring). But me putting numbers on  him would be meaningless.
BRANDON MORROW
I didn’t change him to Closer in the update. I guess I”m in denial. I’m sure he can do the job if healthy. I’m not sure he’ll stay healthy. I cut his IP in half, and gave him 20 saves. I think bidding $10 is fair in 5×5 AL maybe $13 in 4×4. But despite the chance of rewards I think there is a way better chance things will go wrong. I wouldn’t buy him unless his price was dirt cheap.
ROSS GLOAD
Hardly a talent to cling to, he could be disruptive in Florida. Why did they want him? This diminishes the value of Bonifacio, for sure. But it doesn’t kill it. Otherwise, lots could happen.

My TOUT WARS NL Team

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Zoho Sheet – nl mixed

On Friday I published a list of the team I hoped to get in Tout Wars. For two days I thought I had a pretty good shot. But fate intervened.

The first bit of fate, I targeted Roy Oswalt for $25. I saw no reason not to bid $25 on Brandon Webb, and I got him. A little while later perennial champion Mike Lombardo bid $25 on Cole Hamels. Going once… going twice… it was clear no one was stepping in. I bid $26 and I had Hamels for $26 instead of Volquez/Cain for $18. But enough of that. If I’m ever going to actually buy the team I set out to I’m going to have to quit price enforcing pitchers.

The other story of this draft is that there were two parts. Everyone I talked to afterward said they either 1) had a good start and a bad finish, or 2) a bad start and a good finish. I had a dreadful finish, as the talent pool collapsed and I lacked a second catcher and a third baseman. I can’t stress it too much. In a 13 team NL league you have to fill those slots early. There aren’t enough players otherwise.

How did I fall into this mistake? I’m going to blame my computer. I don’t think computers help us draft better teams, but after spending all day at Tout on Saturday, I really didn’t want to get into formatting the printing of my lists Saturday night. Heck, I figured, I’ll just draft from my lists in Excel. It really went okay, no major glitches, I didn’t crash or anything, but when push came to shove I spent more time bookkeeping and less time managing my draft. I love computers for all sorts of tasks, but managing  a draft is best done with pen and paper, I think.

C: Russell Martin 26–As expected, Lombardo picked off two top catchers. That didn’t drive down prices, but I was resolved to get Martin, who went for $2 over my price. As one of the two best players at a scarce position, I don’t think there’s any problem at all getting him rather than being cheap and not getting him.

C-Yorvit Torrealba 3–No future in Colorado, but maybe he’ll land someplace he’ll play. This was where I landed after declining to bid more than $8 on Nick Hundley, who I really wanted. The other options were all dreck. I’m not sure I would have gotten Hundley for $9, but that was the right move. Now I have to root for a beneficial trade, wondering how he got beat out for the backup job to Sal Fasano.

1B-James Loney 18–From the fun, early part of the draft. Productive youngster at a good price. I’m very happy.

3B-Martin Prado 3–From the dismal, late part of the draft. My best choices were Prado and Rich Aurilia. The job in Atlanta is Prado’s if Chipper Jones goes down. The good news is that Chipper always gets hurt, and Prado won’t hurt me when he plays.

CI-Todd Helton 13–He was one of my targets. He’s been healthy enough to have a strong spring during which he’s hit with some power. Homers would be sweet, but if can score 400 AB with a .300 BA I’ll be happy.

2B–Kaz Matsui 12–Everyone hates him so much his steals go for market value. The injury risk is real, but the price (which isn’t cheap) makes that less important. I’m keen on Kaz this year.

SS–Troy Tulowitski 18–He destroyed my team last year. Payback, baby.

2B–Eugenio Velez 6–This was a stretch. You have to like his speed and game, and 2B was getting thin. But there are real playing time issues out there in SF. He could be painful to play.

OF–Randy Winn 14–I had him targetted, and the bidding stopped a few dollars earlier than I expected, so I’m not complaining. He’s getting older, so I count him as somewhat risky, but he’s a solid guy at a good price.

OF–Hunter Pence 24–This was the price I had for him. He’s the right age, with the right blooming talent, to make one optimistic. It’s hard to see him doing less, and there is some potential he’ll grow into more.

OF–Adam Dunn 18–I wanted Jay Bruce at 18 and he went for $24 or so. I thought Dunn would go for $24 but he fell to $18. I’ll take the trade, though Dunn’s BA kept me from going after other guys with bad BA.

OF–Craig Monroe 1–I nominated him, of course. He’s the kind of forgotten guy who makes a good endgame pick, but his spring has been strong enough I thought he’d get bid up. Nope. No love for Monroe from the room. I’m not unhappy to have him, but by nominating him when I did and getting him for a buck I created a cash crisis–too much of it–which made the rest of my afternoon miserable.

OF–Josh Anderson 6–He was the most expensive outfielder left, though the emergence of Jordan Schafer diminishes his role, perhaps totally. There is an attempt to deal him, to the White Sox perhaps, in the works, so this could work out. But right now it feels a little desperate.

UT–Carlos Gonzalez 1–My first reserve pick. Not a bad one. But I have too many hitters here with undefined or negligible roles. I blame my laptop.

P–Brandon Webb 25–An ace.

P–Cole Hamels 26–Another ace. I’m worried about his health, but given what we know now the price is a fair discount. I have to admit, I jumped in because Lombardo was going to get him. Instead he spent $20 on Gallardo.

P–Chris Carpenter 10–He owes me for wrecking my 2007. It’s payback!

P–Chris Young 12–The price was way lower than my perhaps overly optimistic one. He could crater, his arm is acting up and maybe that explains his struggles, but given the price and the breadth of my staff (which I was building) the risk seems acceptable.

P–Anibel Sanchez 3–I like starters with big league history who are approaching their mid 20s. But this is a flyer and the worst thing to do is be too attached if he starts out floundering.

P–Scott Olson 5–I have him in every league I’m in. Call it a hunch and a pitchers park.

P–Ramon Ramirez 1–He looked awfully good last year. He’s in Louisville for now, getting work he didn’t get while playing in the WBC, but he’ll be back.

P–Aaron Cook 6–You have to change with the times, as far as the Coors effect goes, and Cook has shown he can handle it. The price is less than I had budgeted for him.

P–Jon Garland 3–The league change might help, the stadium, too. He’s coming off a bad year, but most of his have been okay to good. And he’s cheap enough to dump, if need be.

The reserves are a mixed bag. Alcides Escobar could be good speed in the middle infield if the Brewers reset this year. JR Towles is a bet against I-Rod. Brian Barden is a utility possibility behind all the uncertain St. Louis infield positions. And I always have to have Corey Patterson.

Scott Pianowski announced post-draft that based on his projections this was a winning team. Not unless I do some things right during the season.

You’ll find all the draft results at toutwars.com. There will also be polls and a modified form of Doubt Wars there starting tomorrow. Feel free to comment.

Joe Sheehan’s AL Tout Wars Team

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Baseball Prospectus

I just finished praising Will Carroll for posting about his TW team, and I see that Joe did, too. 

Attention should be paid, because that’s why we all do this. If Will or Joe’s team isn’t the best, don’t be surprised. There are many opponents, and they’re all good ones. But there are still things to learn.

Will Carroll’s Tout Wars Team Unfiltered

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Baseball Prospectus

Will was invited into Tout Wars because he knows baseball and because he’s game and because he talks about stuff all the time, and that matters. I think he’s an exemplar of the information distributor in the post-publishing age, which is why his Post Tout analysis is important. Reaction in the peanut gallery during the draft thought Will was out of his depth, but looking at his team it isn’t hard to see how it could work out. As he and his helpers well know.

It probably won’t, as it won’t for 16 of the 17 in Tout Mixed League. But active engagement in the league is what makes Tout work. I expect Will won’t forget about his team.

Good luck!

Stephen Strasburg 3.5.09

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Minor League Ball.

This is one of a number of videos that Eun Park posted on John Sickel’s site.

After reading about Strasberg, seeing him is something of a let down. He seems to be short arming the ball, which is a way to gain some speed, at great cost to one’s arm. This clip is most interesting when the woman in the row ahead of Eun fluffs up her hair. The juxtaposition of hard working moundsman and sensual hair tossing is poetic.

On the other hand, this clearly wasn’t Strasberg’s best day, so it would be foolish to draw any conclusions. But watching this I wouldn’t give him $15m even if I had it.

CONGRESS PASSES WIDE-RANGING BILL EASING BANK LAWS

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When we forget the mistakes of history, we’re doomed to repeat them. Note the date this was published.

The New York Times

I think we will look back in 10 years time and say we should not have done this but we did because we forgot the lessons of the past, and that that which is true in the 1930s is true in 2010, said Senator Byron L. Dorgan, Democrat of North Dakota. I wasnt around during the 1930s or the debate over Glass-Steagall. But I was here in the early 1980s when it was decided to allow the expansion of savings and loans. We have now decided in the name of modernization to forget the lessons of the past, of safety and of soundness.

Senator Paul Wellstone, Democrat of Minnesota, said that Congress had seemed determined to unlearn the lessons from our past mistakes.

Calling Out Will Carroll

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FakeTeams

raygu points out a Will Carroll chat yesterday (and quotes from it), in which Will ranks David Price and Steven Strasburg ahead of Clayton Kershaw. Obviously, what matters most is why you’re ranking them (and that isn’t clear from the excerpt, at least), but it also goes to the role of the expert and our belief in what experts say. 

Those experts who play in the media pool have to come with new stuff all the time, because bold declarative sentences are what work best on radio and television (and in print, too, really). So they always have to be coming up with newest thing, rather than carefully tracking the long arc of the real thing as it’s happening. I’m not sure it matters whether Will has seen Strasburg play, because what we know about him is exciting (he throws harder than anyone ever, except for Sidd Finch and Paul Bunyan)  and makes for a much better story than Clayton Kershaw’s right now (young pitcher is growing into his ability, showing he belongs in the big leagues, but is not dominant and maybe he won’t be, though we wouldn’t be surprised if someday he was). 

Nick Kristoff takes a look at the efficacy of experts in the New York Times today. It’s well worth reading, especially when culling the preseason picks of us so-called experts. It isn’t that Will or Jim Callis or any other baseball expert you care to pillory doesn’t know what he or she is talking about. The problem is that whatever ability we have to forecast what will happen in the future is slight, on any subject, and so (to my mind) the discussion should be a fox-like series of explanations and equivocations. What’s possible, why, and why that might not happen. 

But the world wants answers, because the entertaining bloviating of the hedgehog is seen as much more assured and credible–even though the studies Kristoff cites show they are more often wrong. Even, shockingly, the fox doesn’t know the subject and the hedgehog does.

[Ps. I don’t think Will is by nature a hedgehog. He tries to add nuance to much of what he says. One of the reason he’s been so successful, I think, is because he tells what he knows, and is usually pretty clear about what is conjecture. But in a chat or on TV or the radio, it works best to make the big statement, rather than a bunch of little nuanced ones.)