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Fantasy baseball advice for those who ask.

AL Random Roster Notes, March 14, 2013

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I’ve been polishing the projections in the software, and going through some of the playing time issues on various team. What follows are some thoughts as things start to get real:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Considering the disrespect shown to Jim Johnson, none of the other Orioles relievers is getting much CIW status. Pedro Strop is the obvious name here, while Darren O’Day is probably the best arm. That said, Steve Johnson has control issues, but also throws a ton of strikeouts (and bases on balls, and home runs). All should be available in the reserve rounds unless soomeone in your league has a similar thought. Note that Johnson is working as a starter in spring training.

The Orioles have a lot of live arms and veterans with some success competing for the fifth rotation slot. Arrieta, Britton, Matusz, Bundy and Jurrjens, might contribute, especially given Buck Showalter’s usual success with pitchers. Any one of them could be a reserve pick winner.

Brian Roberts has looked healthy. Given his age and his time on the shelf he’s not going to bounce back to former glory, but has a chance to outearn his price if he stays healthy. Alexi is the obvious go to if he doesn’t, but Ryan Flaherty survived a year on the big league roster last year as a Rule 5 draftee.

BOSTON RED SOX

John Lackey has been showing health if not exactly effectiveness this spring.

The presence of Andrew Bailey obscures the presence of Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara, who promise to at least throw lots of outs, if not any saves.

I bumped up Mike Napoli a few bucks, though still to less than CBS/LABR paid. If you can stand the BA risk he could prove very productive.

Pedro Ciriaco is the likely backup at 2B, SS and 3B, which given Drew’s solidity and Middlebrooks’ limitations could lead to beaucoup AB. He’s a source of steals and his BA should not hurt, if he plays.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

There’s nothing wrong with Chris Sale except his age. I’m not a believer in the Verducci Effect, but young arms that throw a lot of innings are always at risk. I’m not predicting it, but I’m not bidding him up to the first tier either.

Jeff Keppinger is a good hitter, but has no speed and little power, plus he’s not a defensive plus. If he plays all the time he can be productive if you pay $10 for him, but there are plenty of reasons to think his playing time will be limited.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Scott Kazmir is surprising everyone in camp. The fifth starter battle is multi-headed. I like Carlos Carrasco but he’s not proved himself any more than Kazmir.

I’m downgrading Drew Stubbs, who has athletic skills but can be replaced usually by other talents on this team.

DETROIT TIGERS

CBS/LABR paid a ton more for Max Scherzer than he’s ever earned. I don’t really understand that given some of the other pitching prices, though of course we all love his strikeouts, but I’m not going to say they’re absolutely wrong.

Closer in Detroit is anyone’s guess. My strategy is to buy the cheapest one, who might be Al Albuquerque, though Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel are strong, too. I see zero chance that Bruce Rondon will hold the job because of his control problems.

HOUSTON ASTROS

Jared Cosart has the skills to close now, but he’s seen as a starter in the long term, once he stops walking so many guys. He’s already been sent to the minors, but has a live arm.

The more you pay for Carlos Pena the bigger a problem you’re going to have. He’s virtually all floor, no ceiling, if his price pushes his projection. CBS/LABR are pushing Chris Carter higher, but in my book he has a lot to prove.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Greg Holland is the closer, but his backup, Kelvin Herrera is just as good. If he comes at a stiff discount he’w worth targeting.

I like Salvador Perez and my projection likes him, too, but so do a lot of other people, too. I wouldn’t push him much past he last year’s earnings. He’s young and still has to show he can adjust.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM

Ryan Madson is working his way back slowly. Very slowly.

Andrew Romine is looking like the utility guy, a role that has had some value in recent years, though he is not a big power or speed guy.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Glen Perkins did a fine job closing last year, despite throwing from the port side. Jared Burton is the likely CIW.

There are a lot of starter possibilities, but none of them are very good.

I like Josh Willingham’s talent, but I don’t like guys in their mid 30s coming off a career year.

Unless he wins a regular job Darin Mastroianni won’t cost too much and should steal a lot of bases whenever he plays.

NEW YORK YANKEES

How can you not pay Mariano Rivera as the best closer in baseball, though obviously his age is risky.

Edwin Nunez could get plenty of playing time, but his defensive weakness may limit his chances. He is fast and can hit, if he drops to the endgame.

If Travis Hafner is healthy he could thrive with the long ball in that park.

Don’t forget Austin Romine on reserve. Cervelli and Stewart are not going to block him if he’s ready.

Andy Pettitte made his spring debut this week.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

I don’t like Dan Straily this year. Make him a pick to miss.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Stephen Pryor is the hot arm, but he may well not be ready yet.

Kendry Morales is going to be a test of the shorter fences.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

It’s time for Desmond Jennings to break out, if he’s going to break out. I have doubts, but the market is betting on the come.

Matt Joyce is a platooner who could earn nicely and not cost too much. But you’ll be frustrated by the cold stretches and days off.

Jason Bourgeois is another speedy guy who could get swipes if he plays. But might not play.

TEXAS RANGERS

Lance Berkman will DH as much as he’s able to, but he has to be considered a high-risk high-return buy this year. Definitely don’t want to ignore him, but you don’t want to chase him either.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Josh Thole should be cheap, might get regular at bats.

ASK ROTOMAN: Altuve v. Heyward

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Hi..

I’m in a 14 team .. 5×5 rotissire league that can keep players for $5 more then they were purchased the year before..

I have Jose Altuve at $1 (can be kept for $6) but I can trade him for Jason Heyward at $16 (Can be kept for $21)..

I’ve always loved Altuve but im not buying his magazine listed price as an over $20 player.. what are your thoughts on that deal???

“Head Over Heart”

Dear HoH:

If you really love Altuve you’ll keep him for $6. He earned $25 last year. Heyward earned $26, not that much more. So the question here is why would you distrust the $22 price in the Guide, and why would you distrust it so much that Heyward would look like a better keeper.

Remember: Who you keep is a function of who would save you the most money above their keeper price on draft day, assuming you want them on your team.

If you don’t want Altuve on your team, that’s fine, but here are some facts:

Last year Altuve earned $25 in 5×5, according to me. According to Alex Patton he earned $24 in 4×4. I think it’s safe to say in an AL only league he earned in the low to mid 20s.

This year, the CBS Sports experts league paid $24 for Altuve (that’s 5×5), while in LABR he went for $19. I think Altuve is worth $22 this year (a 23 year old coming off a $25 season can only be discounted so much), but even if you buy the LABR valuation, you’re saving $13 keeping him at $6.

Jason Heyward earned $28 in 5×5 last year, I say. Alex Patton says he earned $30 in 4×4.

This year, the CBS Sports expert league paid $28 for him, while in LABR he went for $30. I think he’s worth $28 this year, but even if you buy LABR’s price (and I’m not saying that’s wrong), you’re saving $9, which is less than you’re saving with Altuve.

Plus, of course, you’re spending more than three times as much to get the savings. We just gave every rounding edge to Heyward and the numbers still point to Altuve. I think you have to keep the smaller man.

Here’s another way to look at it, assuming 10 percent inflation in your league:

If you throw back Altuve, it’s going to cost you $22 to replace him, based on LABR’s low price. That’s $16 over his freeze price.

If you throw back Heyward, it’s going to cost you $33 to replace him, based on LABR’s high price. That’s $12 over his freeze price.

The bottom line is that you’ll do better freezing Altuve and buying Heyward on draft day than vice versa, even though Heyward is the better and more attractive player overall.

Quickly,
Rotoman

Rotoman on Baseballhq Radio!

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Patrick Davitt invited me on to talk about Tout Wars and the Fantasy Baseball Guide and picks and pans (did I really diss Jordan Zimmerman, for no apparent reason except the, um, formula?). You can hear it here. Thanks for having me on Patrick.

March 8 Patton $ Updates/Corrections

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News of Rafael Furcal’s decision to have elbow surgery last week suggested there was some chance he might be back in July of this year. In the software I cut him down to a projected 235 optimistic at bats. It now seems that he’s going to miss the whole of 2013. I’m cutting his projected AB to 0. Pete Kozma, Daniel Descalso, and Kolten Wong absorb the at bats.

New Bonus (Pink) Cadillac Edition Out Today!

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Includes CBS Sports and LABR expert league prices, as well as projections, bid prices and other updates.

Bruce Springsteen and Jerry Lee Lewis celebrate here:

More information at software.askrotoman.com.

If you’ve bought already, please download at the download page.

101 Fantasy Baseball Tips: The book

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Screen Shot 2013-03-04 at 2.00.25 PMDave Gonos has written 51 tips and solicited tips from 50 friends to come up with this ebook. Dave has a lot of friends, and those that contributed to this ridiculously cheap download are a veritable who’s who of the fantasy baseball industry. My tip is #22, by the way.

Visit the site http://101fantasytips.com/ to find out more and to order.

Cadillac Edition Update is Out Now!

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If you’ve already bought you can go to the Download Page you bookmarked.

If you haven’t, visit software.askrotoman.com for more info.

And no matter, be sure to watch Willy DeVille’s version of Cadillac Walk. He’s relatively young here.

He’s much older in this version, and still devoted to getting it right.

Outliers: Shopping for VMart at Walmart

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walmartlogo One of the players my projection and my initial bid price deviated on most was Victor Martinez. VMart was one of the game’s best hitting catchers, but he missed all of 2012 (his age 34 season) with a torn ACL. After earning $26 and $21 the preceding two years before the injury, he would seem to be a $20+ player this year, even while aging. But a closer look made me wary.

Between 1947 and 2000, four players earned 10+ dollars in their 33rd year and then missed all of their 34th year. None of them played again.

In that same time frame, five players earned 10+ dollars in their 32nd year and then missed most of their 33th year. Only one, Danny Tartabull, came back, and he had one $10 season and then retired.

During that same period, four hitters earned $10+ dollars in their 31st year and then missed most of their 32nd year. None of them earned more than $6 the next year, though two did earn $17 in their 34th year.

Obviously these are small samples, but when we widen it to include even hitters who weren’t that good the year before they missed a season, the tendency is clear: Once you’re in your 30s it’s hard to come back.

None of which is to say that VMart can’t come back. He’s swinging a hot bat so far in camp, and is going to be hitting behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, which isn’t going to hurt. But while the projection, which doesn’t really figure in the injury, is strong, my sense of where the bargains lay makes me wary. History says he’s not likely to be nearly as good as he was before he missed the entire year, because of rustiness and conditioning and aging issues. I wouldn’t be unhappy with him for $10 at all, but he’s likely to go for more like $17-20. At that level I’ll pass.

Outliers: Finding Disagreement With Myself

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Creating my initial Bids and my initial Projections are two discrete processes.

For the Bids I sit with a player’s history of Cost and Earnings, look at his age and any injury information, and try to determine how much I think he’s worth and how much I think everyone else thinks he’ll be worth, since everyone else is who I’ll be bidding against. If I’m way higher than I think the market will be, I’ll shave my bid down so that it will win, but not tower above the competition. And if I’m way lower than I think the market will be, I’ll bump my bid up to just below the market. I want to indicate my predilections, but I’m also trying to describe the market as a whole, so the prices are useful even if you disagree with me.

My projections come in two phases. The first is running a player’s historical data, including a bunch of component parts (batted ball data, mostly), through my projection formula, which also takes into account age and league and home field and league. This gives a rough idea of what players will do but has to be adjusted for playing time, and for changes in roles. After those adjustments the projections run in the Guide, and a similar but more complex set (more categories, mostly, and more time to smooth anomalies) run in the Patton $ software, at first. As spring training progresses I tweak the projections manually, mostly for playing time with veterans, but also to deal with differing situations on teams with platoons and competition and as I get a better sense of new players and their roles.

Once the projections are loaded into the Patton $ software they get priced using Alex’s formula, which is an excellent way to discover what the projection formula is telling me, especially when it differs substantially from the bid price. I’ve been going through the lists, looking at some of the substantial differences, assuming that these are players who might be of special interest this year.

HITTERS (Proj$, PK5)

Mike Trout ($49, $41): The bid predated the reports about Trout’s reporting weight. It assumes he’s not going to be nearly as good as last year, but still plenty good. THe projection is a result of increased playing time, even though he’s projected to not be nearly as good as last year. Verdict: Assuming he can run once the season starts, I would be fine standing by the projection, but I think there’s enough risk of sophomore slump and/or other issues that I wouldn’t bid more than $41.

Albert Pujols ($36, $31): The projection is remembering Albert’s past greatness. Age deductions of significance don’t kick in until the mid 30s. He could be great again, but the trend is clear. Verdict: One reason to bid $31 on Pujols is that he could put up another $36 year. But counting on an aging player to keep running is a mistake. I’ve bumped his projection down a bit, especially the SB.

PITCHERS (Proj$, PK5)

Joaquin Benoit ($15, $1) The bid is wrong. It is the standard bid for a setup guy in 5×5. Especially a guy on a team with a different pitcher named as closer (Bruce Rondon) and at least two other worthy CIW candidates (Al Albuquerque and Phil Coke). But it’s wrong because I’m projecting Benoit to be the closer at some point this year, and to do a good job at it. So, I’m bumping him to $3. That may seem silly, but that’s what he’s worth if Rondon does the job (I doubt it) or one of the other guy ends up the closer. Verdict: Right now Benoit is a closer in waiting. Maybe not even first on line. The reason closers in waiting are valuable is because you don’t pay much for them. So until there’s more smoke, I’m going to keep the bushel on this fire.

Andy Pettitte ($12, $1) He’s 41 years old this year. He only pitched 79 innings last year, and took the year before that off. It’s fine to say last year’s injury was not age related, but not many pitchers stay effective and healthy into their 40s. The projection reflects what he might do if he stays healthy, but the bid is a severe hedge. Verdict: It will be in the $8-$10 range if he emerges from ST in the rotation.

More to come!

Patton $ Corrections: Post Feb. 21 Update

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The new edition is out, with lots of updates. For more information about the software visit software.askrotoman.com. Some we missed that will be reflected in the next version:

Vicente Padilla is playing in Japan this year.

Dodgers signed RHP Mark Lowe to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

Cubs signed RHP Carlos Villanueva to a two-year, $10 million contract back in January.

Brooks Conrad has reached a contract agreement with the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball.

Brad Eldred has signed with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Central League.

Cubs signed INF Alberto Gonzalez to a minor league contract?

White Sox signed INF Andy Gonzalez to a minor league contract?

Marlins acquired INF Adeiny Hechavarria from the Blue Jays in a 12-player trade.

Athletics released INF Luke Hughes.

Andruw Jones has finalized a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Rakuten Eagles of Japan’s Pacific League.

Diamondbacks signed 1B Kila Ka’aihue to a minor league contract.

Brewers signed C Blake Lalli to a minor league contract.

Jose Lopez has agreed to a one-year contract with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Central League.

Wil Myers appears twice on spead sheets

Tsuyoshi Nishioka has officially signed with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Central League.

Diamondbacks avoided arbitration with SS Cliff Pennington by agreeing to a two-year, $5 million contract.

Scott Podsednik Free Agent

Vinny Rottino has agreed to a one-year contract with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Pacific League

Braves claimed OF Jordan Schafer off waivers from the Astros.

Pirates sent INF-OF Drew Sutton outright to Triple-A Indianapolis.

Omar Vizquel said Tuesday that he is planning to retire from baseball at the end of this season.

Jack Wilson has retired from baseball.

Thanks to Russ Tibbett for these.