Month: March 2008

Decoding the Depth Charts: Reds 1B

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When Dusty Baker landed in Cincinnati thoughts turned immediately to all that young talent bubbling up in the city of seven hills. While there is some question whether the bigger bat belongs to Joey Votto or Jay Bruce, the hiring of Baker and the re-signing of Scott Hatteberg raised the question of when the bats would boom at the GAB.

Now, the signing of Corey Patterson seems to relegate Bruce to Triple-A to start the season, which may be the right idea, but what’s going to happen in the battle between Votto (400) and Hatteberg (300) at first base?  The numbers in parens indicate my projected PA as I started this survey.

And the depth charts say:

MLB.com says Hattieberg, then Votto.

Rotowire.com goes for Votto, then Hattieberg, then Javier Valentin. Why not?

Rototimes.com says Hattieberg, then Voto, then Adam Dunn. Why not? They also say Jay Bruce is the centerfielder, and don’t mention Corey Patterson.

BaseballHQ.com says Votto, Hattieberg, then Andy Phillips. Why not?

ESPN.com says Votto, Hattieberg, and that’s enough.

Rotoworld.com likes Votto, Hattieberg and Phillips.

Sandlotshrink.com likes Votto, Hattieberg and then can’t make up its mind between Phillips and Craig Wilson.

I guess the nod goes to Votto at this point, but be a little wary, since a slow start for him paired with Baker’s vet-o-philia could quickly cut into Votto’s PT.

Where in the draft do you take Albert Pujols?

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HQ POLL

BaseballHQ has been running this poll after Ron Shandler wrote last week that you shouldn’t take Pujols at all given the injury risk.

Pujols’ three homers since are a strong argument for his ability to continue to hit despite his elbow problems.

But assuming the Cardinals suck, it makes far more sense for him to bail early this year to save next year than to miss next year to the recovery. Right now I think that makes his price $22, though I couldn’t help myself and voted for taking him No. 7-10 in a mixed league draft.

He’s not sure to fail.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Red Sox CF

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When Jacoby Ellsbury roared past Coco Crisp as the Red Sox centerfielder in the World Series last year, change seemed inevitable and irreversible. Yet it also didn’t feel quite right. Crisp is a bonafide major leaguer who went cold at the wrong time. Ellsbury may prove to be a star, but he isn’t going to stay as hot as he was during that short stretch.

So, how to project them this spring? I’ve been assuming that Crisp is going to be a regular, with 560 plate appearances projected. But I’ve got Ellsbury projected for 470. If they’re both Red Sox that’s way too many at bats. But if Crisp is traded then it’s probably too few. How do the depth charts show it?

Rotowire has Crisp as the Red Sox starter, and Ellsbury as the reserve at all three OF positions.

BaseballHQ has Crisp down for 85 percent playing time. Ellsbury for 50 percent.

The ever contrarian Rototimes likes Ellsbury as the centerfieler, with Crisp the backup.

Sandlot Shrink goes for Ellsbury as the starter, Crisp as the backup.

ESPN.com likes Crisp as the starter, Ellsbury as the reserve at all three OF positions (which could mean a fair amount of playing time on a team starting the fragile JD Drew and the aging Manny Ramirez).

USA Today likes Ellsbury to start, Crisp to back him up, but Brandon Moss and Bobby Kielty to backup the corners.

The Rotoworld depth chart is identical to the USA Today. I suspect there is a good reason for that.

Sportsline goes with Ellsbury in center as the starter, Crisp as the backup, but Ellsbury as the backup in left field.

Yahoo’s minimalist depth chart features Ellsbury as the starter, Crisp the backup.

I have to say that I’m not swayed. The sites I know are thoughtful agree with me (Crisp the starter, Ellsbury the backup) and really the only argument I see for Ellsbury being the starter is if Crisp is traded.

Given the potential injuries to JD Drew and Manny Ramirez, and the reasonable chance that Crisp will be dealt, I’m going to stand pat for now. I’ve got too many AB in the Red Sox OF, but not too too many. For now it makes more sense to stick with the talent, and let the roles (and all important injuries) work themselves out.

The most important thing is that Crisp may be a bargain based on the feeling he’s lost the job and the chance he’ll be traded (and being hurt during spring training hasn’t helped him, for sure), and Ellsbury may be overpriced because he looks like a phenom speedster. That may be a good reason to invest in a cheap Crisp.

Decoding the Depth Charts: Royals 1B/DH

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A friend asked me the other day about depth charts, and wondered which had the most reliable information. I said that I didn’t really know about the best, but that I used Rotowire (because I pay for it) and MLB.com (because I’m there) mostly. He wrote back that he wasn’t a Rotowire subscriber, but checked out some others and couldn’t understand why MLB.com had Schilling as the Red Sox second starter and other inconsistencies with the spring news, which got me to thinking…

Over the next couple of weeks I’m going to look at some of the spring’s positional and role battles through the lens of the various depth charts available to me. That means free services and Rotowire and BaseballHQ are in play.

I hope we’ll learn something about depth charts, the services, and most important, who’s going to play this season. Let’s start with the Royals’ first base/dh battle.

The candidates are Billy Butler (535), Ross Gload (477), Ryan Shealy (162) and Justin Huber, who is converting to the outfield this year because of the logjam ahead of him. My playing time totals reflect the conventional wisdom, with Gload and Butler the putative starters and Shealy a sub or elsewhere.

Rotowire has Gload as the first baseman, Butler his backup, followed by Teahen and then Shealy, with Butler as the DH with Gload as his backup. For some reason they have Esteban German as the third string DH.

MLB.com has the same order at first base, but doesn’t include Gload at DH (just Butler and German).

Yahoo’s minimal approach puts Gload and Shealy at first, and Butler at DH.

ESPN, which is maximal, has Gload followed by Butler, Shealy and Teahen at first, and Butler, German and Gload at DH.

Rototimes.com comes to the rescue of creeping boredom, listing Shealy as the starter against lefties and righties (so far the only service to include platoon info), with Gload and Huber as subs at first base, and Butler as the DH. They also list the Triple-A guy at the position, if there is a meaningful one.

Rotoworld.com has Gload the 1B starter and Shealy his backup, with Butler as the DH.

SandlotShrink.com also has Gload and Shealy at 1B, with Butler the DH.

USAToday.com has the same.

Drafthelp.com has Gload and Butler as the starters and doesn’t rank reserves.

BaseballHQ.com has the neatest information, as it were. They give playing time percentages for each player. At first base Gload (60), Shealy (20), Butler (10) and Teahen (10). At DH Butler gets (65), Huber (10) and Guillen (5). I assume DH doesn’t add up to 100 because of interleague games, though that wouldn’t account for 20 percent of the plate appearances as implied here.

sportsline.com throws us a little curve, putting Butler, Gload, Shealy at first base (in that order) and Gload, Butler, Huber (in that order) at DH.

What did we learn? Everyone except Rototimes is lock step on this one. They’re declaring their affection for Shealy out front. I like him this year, too, though as a sleeper pick who could emerge if there’s an injury or either Gload or Butler gets off to a bad start. As a result I’ve knocked Butler and Gload down about 120 plate appearances total in my projections, and given those to Shealy.

1B: Gload, Shealy, Butler

DH: Butler, Shealy, Huber

And, it should be noted, that the Royals have too many players. Huber is out of optioins, I believe, and German becomes expendable with the arrival of Callaspo, so either Shealy or Huber could end up elsewhere.

The 3 Stages of Rotisserie Grief

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BBTF’s Primate Studies Discussion :: Eugene Freedman

It sounds like this is Eugene’s first fantasy baseball article. He does a good job of explaining Patton’s roto stages and teases his next story, but things really take off when the discussion starts. There are no answers here, but it’s good to hear the chatter.

One suggestion: Do what you like. I’ve never played in a league with holds. Changing BA to OBP is the best move any league can make.

Doctor confirms Pujols has tear, but won’t need immediate surgery – MLB

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ESPN

The issue here is what do you think you should pay for an Albert Pujols who could shut down at any time. The rehab from the surgery is supposed to be eight months, which is why it didn’t make sense to do it last October.

Eight months back from next February is  May, which is probably too soon to count the Cardinals out even if you’re a pessimist.

But unless the Cards are really in it come June 15th or so, it makes sense to shut Albert down and focus on the last two years of his contract with them. A half a season of Albert is worth about $20, though at this point uncertainty is going to drive his price to $30. I’m going to go with $22.

Maybe the Pujols uncertainty is a good reason to start Colby Rasmus in the minors. Or it may be a good reason to promote him aggressively, the way the Cards once upon a time promoted Pujols. That’s a story worth watching closely.

Patton & Co. is Free

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Patton & Co.

Sign ups have been slow and we don’t know why. If you haven’t signed up please let me know your thoughts. If you tried it out and stopped using it I’d like to know why, too. I’m constantly impressed when I get over there about the information on players, so I feel like the product has a use, especially since the level of postings has been really good.

Now, there will be no pay mode until well after the season starts (and I personally think the model works better with no pay mode at all, at least for the comment database, so I’m arguing for that).

So please check it out if you haven’t, and let me know what your problems are if you have and stopped. Write to askrotoman(at)gmail.com.

Thanks.

Corey Patterson Signs with Reds

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2005 Chicago Cubs Statistics and Roster – Baseball-Reference.com

The story I remember from 2005 involved Patterson slumping, the Cubs messing with his swing and approach (which has always been free swinging), some disagreement between Patterson and his manager (but nice words from management about his professionalism), and then he was gone to Baltimore.

Now he’s reunited with that 2005 manager, Dusty Baker, in Cincinnati. Though he signed a minor league deal, this has to be an indication that Jay Bruce will (unsurprisingly) be beginning the year in Triple-A. More interestingly, it could be a reunion of two guys who like to the bat to be put on the ball and so seem both made for each other and oddly paired. Risky personal dynamics, advancing age, and Patterson’s speed and defense make him a strong sleeper choice at this point.