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Wow. The Mets dealing Rick Reed was kind of expected, but him landing in Minnesota surprises me. Especially since the Twins, like the Mets, lack offense.

Reed should do just fine in the AL. The qualitatives may take a hit because of the DH, but that isn’t a foregone conclusion. The Twins record the rest of the way is pretty easy. The only teams with winning records they play are Cleveland and Anaheim. Even so, he may not win many games because this doesn’t appear to be a team that’s going to score many runs.

The rumor is that they will add Dmitri Young, presumably for prospects. We’ll see. Twins fans should fear that the team thinks that the return of David Ortiz will allow the team to produce as many runs as they did with Lawton when Ortiz was hurt.

I have always loved Lawton. When he was in the minors I remember sitting behind home plate at the Twins spring training field in Fort Myers and admiring his compact swing, patient eye and pugnacious approach. If not for the broken eye bone in 1999 I suspect he would be an elite player today. Or close to it.

Both Reed and Lawton are all-in FAAB bids this week.

ESPN.com: MLB – Twins add Mets’ Reed to staff in trade for Lawton

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This Rotoworld comment has Albie Lopez winning 5-6 games with a 4.30 ERA. Maybe.

He’s been pitching better of late and he has a quality arm, as they say. Everybody needs pitching so there’s probably no reason not to go after him. But the thing that stands out for me is the 7 quality starts in 20 chances this year. If he has fixed what was wrong than Rotoworld may have gotten the ERA right (but really, moderate level pitchers will win 4 games, unless they pitch really well or their team scores a lot of runs).

And if he hasn’t solved the problem he’s going to hurt you.

As for Nick Bierbrodt: He was horrible in Arizona thus far. He’s really young and the Devil Rays stink. He’s only worth a shot if you cannot lose any points in ERA and Ratio, and even then you’re grasping. However bright his future is, it isn’t likely to come this year.

Pitcher Info Page

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Jermaine Dye had a fabulous 2000. Given his age, the pedigree he carried with him, and his fielding, he appeared to be more than a guy having a career year. But this year, so far, has thrown his step up in doubt.

He has not been patient at the plate in KC, which may have been the problem. I’d suggest that knowing he was the Player to be Traded may have induced a bit of panic, a bit of pressure that screwed him up. Or maybe the bigger strike zone kept him out of those advantageous counts that helped him so much last year (he hit .440 when ahead in the count).

In any case, he’s a guy with skill who is down. There’s no guarantee, of course, but if you need to make a run Dye is a lot more likely to have a huge final two months than someone who is hitting .350.

Hmmm, maybe I’m overselling that angle. It’s more fair to say that he’s more likely to be better from here on out than he’s been so far. Of course, someone already has him in your league.

Which brings us to Neifi Perez. Perez has always been a decent hitter for fantasy teams because he played in that park in that lineup. As everyone in the world knows, except perhaps for Allard Baird and Tony Muser, he has sucked on the road. Rob Neyer argues that traded Rockies often put up better numbers than their road splits indicate, probably because there is some head games that go into being king of the world a mile high.

Perez could be a little better than nothing, but he could easily hit .235 and earn in the minus.

Jose Ortiz got overhyped because of the truly fantastic year he had last year. I may have overhyped him. I know I was blown away by his stats. I don’t know what the current thinking is about his playing time, I imagine he’s going to help determine that by the sort of start he gets off to.

He’s definitely worth a pickup if you’re playing a wrong-side-of-the-platoon guy. Or worse. I suppose the question is whether I would drop Desi Relaford to pick him up. I don’t think so, but I don’t have enough FAAB left to get into the fight, I don’t think.

Finally, Juan Uribe got the call. He and Ortiz are playing tonight and I suspect they’ll get most of the AB, with Terry Shumpert filling in here and there. Uribe is not nearly the hitter Ortiz is and while his AVG in Colorado Springs was nice, that’s as good a hitters park as Coors and the pitchers aren’t nearly as sophisticated. He might fill a hole, but he’s unlikely to bust out in any meaningful way this year.

ESPN.com: MLB – Dye cast in wild-card race: A’s become player with deal

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Everyone knew he was going to be dealt. I was hoping he’d end up in Boston, because I have him on my American Dreams League team. He hasn’t exactly been mowing them down, only 42 strikeouts in 95 innings, but he’s won some games and has a bloat ERA courtesy of two bad games (against KC and Minnesota, if you can figure that out).

Actually, the K rate is up the last month or so, too. He works with a big overhand curve and gets into trouble when he can’t throw it for strikes, but the bigger strike zone with umps hunting for strikes UP and DOWN and IN has to help him.

So does the new league, I’d bet. Somehow the Dodgers talked the White Sox into picking up some of his salary, too. His health (he missed the first few weeks of the season rehabbing from shoulder surgery) has to be a concern, but he is a starting pitcher you might no have to break the bank for. I know I’m going after him.

ESPN.com: MLB – Dodgers pick up Baldwin from White Sox

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I’m not making any promises, but the only time Dave Mlicki has pitched well has been after he’s been dealt in midseason. His winning performance here comes against the Pirates, so it might mean nothing at all. But when he gets in a groove Mlicki really can get guys out.

At least he has in the past. If you’re in a tight ERA/Ratio fight don’t bite, but he’s probably out their for the picking and with this offense behind him he will get some wins. And he might even surprise.

ESPN.com: MLB Boxscore: Houston vs. Pittsburgh

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A member wrote asking about the deal and I answered this way:

How much better than Stairs is McGriff? What are the Devil Rays going to do with Zuleta they wouldn’t do with Cox? Quevedo is a young starter who got toasted in the big leagues in 2000 but who has been very tough in Iowa City this year. I would assume he’s the guy the Devil Rays wanted. Zuleta is more of a platoon sort.

I suppose we might see a Cox-Zuleta platoon at first, with Quevedo in Tampa’s rotation right away.

The Cubs might get some more offense out of McGriff, which they need, but it doesn’t seem like enough to justify the cost.

If this deal actually happens. It doesn’t seem like a sure thing. There are also reports the players are Manny Aybar and Jason Smith, a shortstop who isn’t exactly burning up Triple-A.

Choi is stinking it up in the minors this year. Maybe he’ll be ready next year, maybe he’s hurting (I don’t know) in some way. Unless he does better he won’t be in the majors next year.

MLB Player News

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Don’t you think that Cliff Floyd probably unloaded those tickets at a deep discount already? Don’t you think that was probably part of Valentine’s thinking?

MLB Player News

In any case, Floyd is certainly a roto all star this year.

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Somebody (not a member) asked today whether they should keep Charles Nagy and Jaret Wright on their rosters. I said no way to Nagy, he was an easy one to chuck. It appears that Wright could get healthy and could be effective before the year is out.

If he’d asked I would have said, “So long as Matt Morris is healthy his is as sure a thing as you can find.”

Not tonight.

ESPN.com: MLB Boxscore: St. Louis vs. Cleveland

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Saves are everybody’s favorite topic, it sometimes seems to me, even though it seems obvious to me that saves are as much a function of opportunity as skill.

No, not everyone would make a good cleanup hitter, but anybody who batted fourth would drive in more runs than most anyone else who didn’t.

Similarly, not everyone would make a good closer, but anybody who was called on consistently to close games would get more saves than anyone who didn’t.

What Steve says in this article about percentage of saves per team win is of some interest. But he posts a straw man when he says that common knowledge is that bad teams get fewer saves than good teams. He very astutely points out that this chart doesn’t really address that issue in roto terms, where we don’t care so much about team saves as individual saves.

MLB Features

The bigger point here is that team saves definitely seem to center at about 50% of team wins, and variations don’t necessarily reflect the quality of the team.

I think the lesson is that while saves are very valuable in a mathmatical sense, which is why most of the top earning pitchers are closers, in reality saves is a very fluid market with many surprises. In spite of the earnings of closers, it is better to spend a little on saves than a lot.

The real skill (or is it luck?) is figuring out who is going to get the opportunities.

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Salmon is another guy who has been so bad that his owners may deal him cheaply in frustration. Which makes him a worthwhile pickup if you need to make risky plays to get back into it the second half.

On the other hand, he has been so bad that there may be something seriously wrong here. He can’t really be worse in the second half, but that doesn’t mean that he’s sure to bounce back.

MLB Player News