9685987

ESPN.com: MLB – Healthy Hollandsworth ‘can’t wait’ to play again

After getting traded from LA to Colorado in 2000, Hollandsworth had an OPS of .934 (it was just .686 before the trade).

At the start of last year, before Hollandsworth busted his shin, he had an OPS of 1.075. So far, in 284 at bats playing for the Colorado Rockies, Hollandsworth has hit 17 home runs, driven in 58 and stolen 12 bases. Double those numbers and you get a pretty fair outfielder.

Is it fair to double the numbers? Is Hollandsworth’s production in Colorado indicative of what he might do this year?

284 AB is a fair sample size, though it isn’t nearly enough of a pattern to completely override Hollandsworth’s previous history with the Dodgers. After a modest debut season for the LAers, for which he won the Rookie of the Year prize, he settled into a profound sort of mediocrity, neither making and impact nor an impression, while somehow managing to hold onto his job.

His on base skills are slight. Even in Colorado, off to a hot start last year, he walked just eight times in 125 AB. His historical patience is a little better than that, but not great.

My prediction: He could end up on the good side of a platoon with Benny Agbayani (or Mark Little), but chances are good that the situation will get messier, with Jack Cust pushing his way into some sort of role. It would be foolish not to notice Todd’s apparent affinity with Colorado, but it is unlikely he’s going to be able to set aside his lackluster past completely. Which makes him a risky pick if his price goes beyond $10-$12 bucks.

9663117

Fantasy Baseball: AL Mock Draft

I think price lists for auctions are important, even though everybody is going to immediately focus on the prices they disagree with. Paul Lo Duca for $10, readers of my magazine are saying, “You idiot!”

Well, it’s entirely possible.

But I think it is in draft leagues that you really need to study what happens in mock drafts. After all, draft-style fantasy is a game of irrational runs and stomach-churning suspense, capped by intense misery when one’s favorite sleeper gets taken in the 11th rounds.

Here is a first shot at it, from ESPN. Giambi shouldn’t be anyone’s third pick, but all in all the results here are fairly standard and defensible. If you play draft-style, this is a good place to begin studying, at least until ESPN introduces it’s composite draft results, derived from the actual results of actual leagues.

In a game driven by psychology and guts and context, that’s useful.

9633502

It became clear today that having the Q+A on a seperate page from the nearly-daily notes wasn’t working. I might or might not update one or the other on any given day, and having to visit two pages was too much for some. I can’t argue with that. So, you get it all here.

I think that makes more sense. The few weeks of Q+A columns can be found on the archive page, in case you care to follow along at home.

9633417

I need some keeper-league advice for my NL team. I play in a 12 team league with a salary cap of $280 to fill 24 slots. Should I keep the following players at their current prices?

Danny Bautista $6
Michael Barrett $6
Derrek Lee $5
Greg Norton $6
Kevin Millwood $21
Kirk Rueter $6
Chad Fox $6
Andy Ashby $13

I assume the values in your league are about the same as in a 13 team NL league with a $260 budget. You don’t say what sort of inflation you expect, so I’ll just riff on each of these guys. You judge if they’re good enough to keep in your league.

Bautista: He got sexy in a hurry during the playoffs. He may well end up with a full-time job coming out of spring training, though more likely he’ll end up on the good side of a platoon. He’ll earn more than $6.

Barrett: The always promising backstop hasn’t show much ability to translate talents into production. I’d be tempted to keep him if I was chucking batting average. He’s going to have a breakout season at some point. But if it isn’t this year whatever power he generates could be negated by him hitting .240.

Derrek Lee: Yes, keep him. He earned $15 last year. He is far more likely to get better this year than worse.

Norton: If Todd Zeile can’t play third, or can’t hit, Norton will get more chances to play. He earned $5 last year. Still, he’s marginal enough, with a poor enough AVG, to be a good pickup for a buck or two. He could earn $6, but you’d be better off not paying that.

Millwood: The only year he earned $21 was 1999, when he was a great, great pitcher. In no other year has he come close. He’s certainly worth a mid-level flyer. I’d pay $10 for him. Somebody else would probably pay $15. But you shouldn’t pay more.

Rueter: In a league with a lot of inflation you could justify Rueter for $6, I suppose, but he is a total crapshoot whose Ratio is going to hurt. Let him go.

Fox: Isn’t yet the closer in Milwaukee and may not become the closer. Still, he’s a good enough pitcher that he could earn $6 in middle relief. He earned $9 last year. But you should never pay for middle relievers. So, he’s worth $6 coming out of camp if it looks like he might take Leskanic’s job. Otherwise, let someone spend their good money on his good stats.

Ashby: he hasn’t earned $13 since 1999. If he’s healthy coming out of spring training I suppose his price will rise into this range, but he’s been so hurt and so ineffective the past two years, I think I’d let him go.

9633286

I was wondering if you would rate a few players for me, from best to worst:
Casey Kotchman, Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, Gabe Gross, Marlon Byrd, and Brandon Phillips. Thanks for your time and effort.

My pleasure:

Casey Kotchman: Accumulated all of 22 at bats as the Angels’ first round pick last year. Tendinitis in his right hand did him in. He is expected to become a first-rate prospect but is clearly too far away at this point to properly evaluate.

Omar Infante: He’s a 21-year-old shortstop prospect for the Tigers with good, not great, defensive skills who hit .302 last year in Double-A. That was a nice step forward for him, but he still needs to take another large step forward with the bat to project as a future major league starter.

Kelly Johnson: He walked 71 times in 415 AB in Single-A last year. This 20-year-old Braves prospect is playing shortstop now, but he might not make the bigs in the middle infield. He has some power, however, and some speed, and should be expected to fill out as he matures. Unlikely to see the big leagues until 2004.

Gabe Gross: He’s 23 this year, a first round Blue Jays pick out of Auburn (where he was a quarterback), he quickly moved up to Double-A last year. He has shown good strike zone judgement and decent power and could advance quickly if he does well this year.

Marlon Byrd: He’s older, turning 25 this year, but is coming off a strong Double-A campaign, and is expected by some to take the starting job from Doug Glanville in Philadelphia this year. He’s a bit of a free swinger but has good speed and excellent stolen base skills, as well as real power. I think you have to be conservative when anticipating a rookie knocking a vet out of the lineup, but if the opportunity arises (or is taken) Byrd could be potent fantasy player right off the bat.

Brandon Phillips: He’s just 21 and only walked eight times in 211 Double-A AB last year. He played third base in the AFL, though his background is as an outfielder. The Expos are a team without much depth, so he could advance quickly, and it appears he’ll add some pop as he comes along. Still, I wouldn’t expect to see much of him this year, nor expect much production even if he gets and opportunity. If he continues to develop, however, there might be room for him in 2003, if there are Expos (or Capitols, or whatever).

9620826

Last week five copies of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2002 arrived at my local Barnes and Noble here in Brooklyn. Today when I visited they were sold out.

If you’re having problems finding the magazine please let me know. If there’s a Barnes and Noble or Borders or Wal-Mart or some big store that doesn’t have it in stock, send me the address and I’ll forward it along to our circulation director, who will send it along to the right people.

I’m not sure that’s going to get copies to you. I think the best thing you can do is ask at the store. But it might. And it might help us get better coverage of the country next year. Thanks for your help.

9568781

ESPN.com: MLB – Addressing a concern over the Pirates

You should read this story by John Sickels.

If you don’t know, Sickels has become the first voice to consult about minor league players. That’s because he’s a pretty decent writer and he uses measures we all (should) respect to evaluate talent and potential.

What I like particularly about this story is the way it sets Sickels’ tempered analysis against that of the scouts who make the decisions about who plays and who doesn’t. And about who gets drafted and who doesn’t.

I’m not an expert on the minor leagues. I read a lot of people who try to figure the minors out by looking at minor league performance, but it’s clear from the evidence that all of that isn’t necessarily predictive.

We’ll see this year how Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena and others perform. Some of that will justify the opinions of Sickels and scores of minor league cross checkers. But from a fantasy baseball perspective, the thing to remember is that nobody knows exactly how it’s going to go, and there is no profit in paying a real price for an unproven player.

If Mickey White and John Sickels can’t even agree on what position a guy should play, we should be wary about the weight we give their opinions. The fact is that the top rookies are often guys who aren’t listed on the preseason lists of top rookies, because the moments that talent, opportunity and execution coincide are very difficult to predict.

9568158

ESPN.com: MLB – Report: Rockies strike deal with free agent Harnisch

In the magazine we say: “After elbow surgery to repair a slightly torn ligament late last season, the Reds doctors said his prognosis was excellent. If his recovery is routine, a sub-4.00 ERA should follow, making him a nice little bargain. If it’s not routine, he is one bad stretch away from retirement.”

Given the contingent nature of this supposed deal the Rockies must not be sure that the elbow is perfect. But even if the elbow is sound, all the Prozac in the world isn’t going to turn Harnisch into a plus pitcher at Coors.

Those with daily trannies will have a tougher decision.