HI Peter,
We’ve chatted in the past…..really enjoy the new Guide. I did the PDF also…great idea. I subscribed to the spreadsheets this year…totally confused at the moment but working on it.
Quick question: I’m in a ten-team H2H points league with 16 keepers and 26 total spots 13 hitters and 13 pitchers…6 starters 4 relief and 3 reserves. We have a snake draft coming up and I’m picking sixth this year. We do four rounds of drafts then it’s open drafts one player per day starting at 9:00 pm until rosters are complete.
The top six pitchers available ranked by order of your Guide are Clevinger, Verlander, Saurez, Rodriguez, Ryu, and Urquidy. Naturally not all of the guys ahead of me will take pitchers but I have a feeling at least Verlander will be gone. I know we don’t have any additional data, but have you changed opinions on any of them in the past few months. I think it may end up between Clevinger, Saurez, and Rodriguez available to me. Would you still rank them the same?
Thanks,
Ranking Full Stop
Dear Ranking,
To tell you the truth, I have no idea about the implications your league’s rules will have on player value. That’s something you and every person who plays in a non-standard league has to figure out for themselves.
The six pitchers you mention range in 24 team mixed league value (akin to only-league value) from $16-$13. This is a narrow band.
My advice when addressing a group like this is for you to decide who you like best and rank them yourself. I’m good with my list, but I can say that Clevinger is high because I’m not super worried about him coming back from injury. I could be wrong.
Verlander is here because given his age I’m worried about him coming back from injury, but he’s a generational talent and so even then he’s old he can’t be dismissed.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a great arm, seems to have recovered from his Covid induced myocarditis, but still is an underachiever. Is that bad luck? Or is he doing something wrong.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has great skills when he’s healthy but doesn’t have the physical heft to dominate. Suarez had a great run last year, but there isn’t much in the pedigree to support greatness. Urquidy has great talent, but a fragile track record. You get the picture. All of these guys could be excellent, and all of them could tank. But all of them are coveted enough that the price isn’t going to be inconsequential.
It has long been my maxim that when you have a cluster of similarly valued players you’re best off taking the last in the group rather than the first. This isn’t always possible, buy I think it applies here. Any one of these pitchers could be top 10 this year, and all of them could bust. Invest the least and hope for the most.
I know this isn’t exactly the question you asked, but I think it’s the answer that might help the most.
Good luck,
