One of the reasons I went after Hideki Matsui this year in the American Dream League (AL only) is because he’s been so consistent. Reliable. No more. Which got me thinking about a couple of attempts to gauge reliability that have surfaced in recent years.
One of these is Sig Mejdal’s Injury Projections. Mejdal list percentages of chance for players to get hurt. His Top 10 Hitters Most Likely to Get Hurt (published last November) was: Griffey (just getting off DL), Jordan (not yet), Cliff Floyd (playing like it), Gary Sheffield (on DL), Rondell White (playing like it), Sammy Sosa (retired), Reggie Sanders (gets off DL tomorrow), Jose Valentin (29 AB so far), Alomar Jr (back spasms and shoulder pain because he could’t play every fifth day), Geoff Jenkins (okay so far).
On the pitching side: Kerry Wood (like fish in a barrel), Orlando Hernandez (DL), Wade Miller (DL), Carl Pavano (DL), Jaret Wright (only 16 IP so far), Oscar Villareal (healthy), Randy Wolf (DL, out for season), Matt Mantei (DL), Rudy Seanez (ineffective, but pitching), Brad Penny (sharp).
That’s a lot of hits so far, but I’m not sure how useful that is.
Ron Shandler gave Matsui an 88 reliability score, on a scale of 100, reflecting his consistent performance and health over the past three years. Ken Griffey, on the other hand, scored a 7. Nomar? 22. All will have spent time on the DL this spring.