But the bottom line is a moving target as the season goes along. The top performers in the first half don’t usually perform as well in the second half, and some folks we’ve left for dead in the first half reemerge in the second half full of life. All of which aligns with what we know about regression to the mean. If you’re the best (or worst) at something for a little while, you’re likely to do worse (or better) for the next little while.
You can see the first half fantasy profit/loss spreadsheet here. Use this information to help target players for the second half.
Top 20 Pitching Profiteers in the First Half of 2017:
Of course, everyone wants to know who is killing their team, as if they didn’t already know.
The Bottom Ten Biggest Losers in the First Half of 2017:
No. 11 is Jason Verlander, BTW. You have to decide whether to bail on bad first halfs by historically good pitchers. I would bet on a better second half for Tanaka and Verlander, and worry more about Tillman and Glasnow.
But Tillman and Glasnow are talented, and history says that if they stay healthy they will have their moments.