This blog links to another blog that argues that in the AABBBAA World Series format there is no Home Field Advantage, and refutes it. This doesn’t seem, on the face of it, to be a very controversial opinion, but some nifty Java work leads to some interesting discussion.
One point that isn’t addressed is noise in the actual data because the Home Field Advantage has historically been distributed randomly. Give it to the lesser of two teams half the time and the actual results are likely to be less definitive, especially given the small sample size.
The big question? Why have teams that were trailing 3-2 won the sixth game 63 percent of the time? Might it be because the leading team adopted Houston’s strategy in the NLCS this year, and held it’s better pitcher until game seven?
It’s a thought.