Yes, an infrequent contribution here. Actually, I’ve made some others that have gotten lost in the ether, which as you might imagine is a kind of negative reinforcement. Sorry about that. I appreciate you all writing directly. I think I’ve been pretty good about getting back to you on those.
In Friday’s column by Neyer, linked here, ESPN.com: MLB – Neyer: How good is Scott Rolen? Rob talks about Scott Rolen, who for the first time in three years is playing a sizeable percentage of the Phillies’ games. The article is about Rolen’s defensive value and Larry Bowa’s silly assertion that Rolen saves the Phils 75 to 100 runs per year with his defense.
I have no issue with Rob simply stating that Rolen probably saves something closer to 12 runs per year over an average replacement. I’ve watched him do the math on this issue before, so he doesn’t have to prove it again.
But he also suggests that Rolen is healthy and it is odd that his power numbers are down so much this year over his previous performances. But I wonder. If Rolen has chronic back problems, could they really get all better and yet his performance would then decline? There is the new surface at the Vet this year, which was in part intended to help Rolen cope.
And there is a the new strike zone. Which hasn’t affected Barry Bonds or Luis Gonzalez negatively, but could be a factor for Rolen. He was a guy with great count control in the early part of his career, but as his back has hurt more he has become more of the prototypical slugger. He has tried to pull everything and is less concerned with getting a favorable count.
If I’m right, that his decreased patience comes because of his decreased stamina (“It hurts! It hurts!), might his increased playing time come because he knows he’s not going to get a big contract if he sits too much in this, his contract year?
This position needn’t be as cynical as it sounds. I’m not a big fan of “contract drives,” but if he doesn’t hurt quite as much because of the improved surface but he hurts enough to cause him to pull the ball rather than drive it to all fields, wouldn’t the result be that he’d play, but his power numbers would fall off?
The point for roto players is that Rolen is still young, but if his back is an ongoing problem it shouldn’t be overlooked just because he’s played more than 150 games this year.