Ask Rotoman: 12 team Keeper League. 5 keepers per team. Non snake draft. I won last year so am drafting 12th. Trying to decide if I should keep Marte in the 3rd round (36 overall) or Bogaerts in the 12th (144). Other 4 keepers are all SP (Kershaw (1), Archer (11), C.Martinez (19), Arrieta (22)). Thanks!
Non snake! That should put a little dent in dynasties, though getting to keep Arrieta in the 22nd is a dynasty maker.
As for your hitter choice, it’s a tough one. Marte is one of the top power/speed guys in the game, certainly one of the Top 20 fantasy players, so getting him with No. 36 is a nice discount.
On the other hand, I love Bogaerts. He’s young, has some power and speed, showed lots of improvement making contact last year, and plays shortstop, a position that is extremely weak this year. He’s ranked around 60th overall this year, which means you’re getting him 84 picks early.
So, what’s more valuable? 16 picks in the early going or 84 picks in the middle? We have a way to check.
Take a look at last year’s Tout Wars Auction results. While any individual player could be off, if you rank the auction results from most expensive pick to least expensive, you can compare comparable draft ranks and see what their financial value is.
For instance, the 20th pick last year was worth $29, so that’s probably what Starling Marte is worth this year. The 36th pick, on the other hand, was worth $25, so the net result is you can judge Marte as a +$4 bargain.
The 60th pick last year, our proxy for Bogaerts, was worth $20. What was the 144th worth? $12, so Bogaerts is +$8. Twice as good! And you have a shortstop!
Now, you still should do some analysis of who other teams are going to be keeping. It’s possible in your league all the other keeps will be top hitters, so there won’t be a top hitter available to you at 24, your first pick. Marte is the safer pick then because he would be less replaceable, so while he may not have as much of a discount, he could be more valuable to your team than the other options that will be available to you early on.
Because you need hitting.
Sincerely,
Some Facebook friends, notably Matt Vandenbrand, suggested you keep both hitters, since both are valuable and you need hitters, and throw back Carlos Martinez.
I didn’t think of this because I love Carlos Martinez and would love to have him at a good price, but given that you already have three of the Top 20 starters in the game, using only one high pick, it does make good sense.
The fact is, you can take hitters and closers up through the Archer pick and have a shot at Martinez in the 12th or 13th. Or maybe 14th or 15th. Or 16th.
Good idea, Matt.
If we go back to our original method, we see that Archer is expected to cost $20 (65th pick), but will actually cost $15 (120th pick). He saves you $5.
Carlos Martinez is a volatile figure. His 2015 season ended with him shut down due to shoulder pain. He’s supposedly strengthened the shoulder in the offseason, but he has to be knocked down a notch because of this. If he’s ranked 165th he’s a $10 player you’ll be getting at $5.
You can argue whether save $5 of $10 is a bigger percentage than saving $5 of $20, and thus of more value, but you can also argue that if you wanted to draft Archer again his draft inflation would be much higher than Martinez’s, and that makes him a better deal now.