You’ll find the actual quote, no heck, I’ll run it here. Below I said that in hindsight Phil Nevins’ injury looks totally predictable, but I doubted anyone predicted it. But Will Carroll did, at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s what he said last Tuesday:
There are two players who clearly stand out–one of those being Phil Nevin. Yes, that’s a red light you see next to his name and it’s the product of about five hours of phone calls, emails, and research. Finally, what sealed Nevin’s fate was the concurrence of the PECOTA projection. Simply stated, Phil Nevin is reaching a point where injuries and an exceptionally odd career path have taken some sort of toll. Last year, Nevin suffered through two arm injuries that may or may not be connected. Nevin was initially out with a strained elbow and returned, only to break his humerus near the shoulder. The injury was initially believed to be a bruised muscle, but an MRI broke the bad news. Nevin’s had a history of shoulder problems and even after his return, Nevin was clearly not at full strength. Reports coming from San Diego have Nevin still not at full strength. Add in a positional change to left field, a push past the prime years, and a history of injury, and suddenly Nevin becomes not a feared hitter, but a risky player that you don’t want to build a team around. I’ll either look like a genius or moron with this, but I expect Nevin to have some sort of season-ending injury in the early stages of the season. The Padres have plenty of options, but depending on their record, I think we’ll see Xavier Nady by the All Star break.
Freakin’ good work. Really freakin’.