I’ve been offered Todd Helton, Bobby Abreu, Roger Clemens, and Matt Morris for Vladmir Guerrero, Shawn Green, Freddy Garcia, and Mark Buehrle. I know that I get the better part of the deal by a margin but right now I’m in 4th place with my guys and he’s in dead last with his. Should I do it?
Wow, that’s a lot of names. But here’s what I quickly see:
Helton and Guerrero show up on price lists about even. So do Abreu and Green. You can like one or the other, but the net result of swapping these four is basically null. Zilch. Zippo. Nil.
So, how about the pitchers? I’ve got Clemens ($8) and Morris ($13) worth about $21, while Garcia ($30) and Buehrle ($25) go for a whole lot more. By my reckoning you don’t get the better part of the deal at all, but I have to admit I’m extra wary of Clemens and Morris and I could be wrong about them. Clemens, after all, is aging, but apparently indestructible, while Morris is clearly great as long as he stays healthy. Last year those two earned $45, while Garcia and Buehrle earned $64. Hmm, another strong not against the deal.
So, what did LABR do? Clemens for $20, Morris for $23 equals $46. Garcia for $25 and Buehrle for $19 equals $44. A slight nod in favor of doing the deal.
You know where I stand: Don’t do it. All the risk lies on the Clemens and Morris side, while Garcia and Buehrle have all the upside. But clearly those playing in LABR disagree with me, slightly.