I am in a 5×5 NL-only keeper league. I don’t have much money left so I have to make wise use of my last protection. I can’t decide between Delino DeShields ($1), Juan Cruz ($1) and Doug Glanville ($2). Rotoman, please help me.
I’ll do the best I can.
I love Delino and expect he’s going to have a good year, though the deficiencies in his glove and the crowdedness of the Cubs outfield concern me. I have him projected to earn $12, though if he manages to win a full-time job he could easily approach $20.
Juan Cruz is one of the most eagerly anticipated young hurlers this spring, based on eight good games last fall after jumping from Double-A. I would suggest that his minor league numbers last year suggest that his big league success was a bit of a fluke, and there are professional hitters who will soon catch up with him. Also, he was revealed this winter to be two years older than he claimed, and he reported to camp underweight, causing Don Baylor no small amount of angst. No, we don’t have a three strikes policy heare, but that’s enough to remind us that young pitchers are often unreliable. I have him down to earn $5, that’s a mid-point between $25 and -$15.
Doug Glanville’s roto earnings the last five years: $17, $19, $35, $22, $22. He’s a much better roto player than baseball player, which is why you have to be concerned that he might lose his job at any time. This spring the Phillies have a young hotshot named Marlon Byrd vying for a chance to derail the last train to Glanville. Because I’m weak I have Glanville predicted to earn $22, but he could easily drop to $12 without much effort if his playing time drops.
As you might guess, I think Cruz is too risky, since you have other choices. But the other choices are kind of the opposite sides of the same coin. Both are older, both have some demerits to deal with, and both are roughly the same price. I think I’d keep DeShields because I really do love his game and because there isn’t anything to love about Glanville’s. On top of that, DeShields may end up qualifying in the middle infield, which could be a little extra plus (he played 16 games at 2B last year).
But I also think that if they both have average seasons at this point, Glanville is the more likely to earn more. My advice is take DeShields, unless you think that’s crazy advice. In which case you should take Glanville.