ASK ROTOMAN: Who Should I Keep?

Rotoman: 

I am in a standard 5×5 keeper league with 12 teams. AL and NL. We can keep 3 players from one year to the next. If we keep a player we can’t draft in the round they were taken in the previous year. Just wondering who out of the following players you would keep. I have Matt Harvey, Fernando Rodney, Sergio Romo, Todd Frazier and Chris Davis all from the 27th round (final round of draft, most were free agent pick ups during 2012 so they qualify as the last round in the draft). I also have Jason Kipnis from the 10th round.  I can only keep three. Leaning towards Rodney, Davis and Kipnis. (I really like Harvey too though) Who would you keep?

“Is Kipnis A Keeper?”

Hey!

I think the question here is what is the difference between the late rounds and round 10. Kipnis is a good keep, but in the 10th round he’s a bargain by a round or two, maybe. While taking three guys from the rounds 25-27 means you have real players in your endgame. That’s real value.

Fernando Rodney is surprisingly old, but he was surprisingly solid last year. I’m not going to guarantee his continued success, but given what he showed you have to take a shot. He was too dominant to let go.

If Chris Davis was Rodney’s age I would caution against a repeat, but despite all the years of underachievement Davis has under his belt, he’s going to be 27 this year. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t come close to repeating this year.

As for Sergio Romo, Todd Frazier and Matt Harvey, all rank within a round of each other, somewhere around number 160. Since you have a closer in Rodney and a power hitter in Davis, it makes sense to me to take a shot at an ace in the last round. He’s riskier than the other two, but with more upside (and help to your team).

And I wouldn’t object to you reaching a little for Kipnis, if he’s the second baseman you want, but by not freezing him you also have the option of going for Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia, who will pump up the value of your 27th Round keepers.

Good luck!
Rotoman