In the spirit of Let It All Hang Out, I’m going to keep a running commentary about changes I’m making to the April 2 update to the Patton $ Software. If you bought the software you should find it of interest. If you haven’t, maybe it will give you an insight into the thinking that goes into the projections and prices. And it sheds light on recent baseball news, too.
PROJECT RUSS OHLENDORFF
The problem with these guys is there is no way to know whether they’re going to be better than last year or not. So the projection reflects his skills but not the outcomes, because his history is so bad. But he could be better. The only solution is to split the difference:
100 IP 110H 40 BB 98K 5W 7L 13HR 4.77 ERA 13.5 Ratio 1.5 whip
PROJECT PHIL DUMATRAIT
He is unpredictable. His health isn’t good. Hasn’t been good since last June. He’s not due back until May, if all goes well, but why should it? And he’s thrown 100 awful major league innings. I’m not saying he might not put it together if he’s healthy, but a projection based on his past history would be too awful to roster, based on his health would argue against him playing, and a good projection would fly in the face of the evidence. If you like him, pick him up on reserve. I’m not suggesting that couldn’t work out (he was great last spring). But me putting numbers on  him would be meaningless.
BRANDON MORROW
I didn’t change him to Closer in the update. I guess I”m in denial. I’m sure he can do the job if healthy. I’m not sure he’ll stay healthy. I cut his IP in half, and gave him 20 saves. I think bidding $10 is fair in 5×5 AL maybe $13 in 4×4. But despite the chance of rewards I think there is a way better chance things will go wrong. I wouldn’t buy him unless his price was dirt cheap.
ROSS GLOAD
Hardly a talent to cling to, he could be disruptive in Florida. Why did they want him? This diminishes the value of Bonifacio, for sure. But it doesn’t kill it. Otherwise, lots could happen.