Yahoo! Sports – MLB – Source: Tigers agree to $75 million deal with Ordonez
In the mock draft in The Fantasy Baseball Guide I chose Magglio Ordonez in the third round, which provoked a fair number of huzzahs from the other drafters. If he’d been healthy, for sure, Ordonez would have been a first rounder, but he’d undergone more than one surgery and some mysterious Austrian treatments, so no one knew what his health was.
I took Ordonez at that point because if he was healthy enough to play he was a great hitter to get in the third round, but it was probably too big a risk to take on a hitter who hadn’t done any running, hadn’t seen any team physicians, hadn’t done much to convince anyone that he really was ready, because he really wasn’t ready.
As best I can tell, based on Will Carroll’s somewhat cryptic report and other less graphic but more straight forward reports, Ordonez isn’t really running all that well thus far. So it seems safe to say his days as a base stealer are pretty much over. But he’s working out and running, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him whacking the tar out of the ball come Opening Day.
So, the Detroit Tigers have apparently hopped on board, with a deal that obligates to pay Magglio a lot of money even if he busts this year, but allows them to get out of paying him even more unless he proves he can play.
Dave Dombrowski is an excellent evaluator of talent, and a fine manager of personel, so while I think this could go badly for the Tigers, it is also an investment in one of the best hitters in the game. Albeit one who is a bit older than you’d like.
Fantasy players should be wary of Ordonez this year, he’s recovering from injuries and surgeries for which we don’t have historical precedents. But he’s a really good hitter whose game wasn’t reliant on his legs before his injuries, so it would be a mistake to ignore him.
Look for fewer steals than in the past, but unless he breaks down again (not an unlikely scenario) he’s likely to be a great hitter at a very good price.
Joe Sheehan’s piece today (2-8) at baseballprospectus.com does an excellent job demolishing this signing. I can’t really argue with his conclusions, and perhaps wish I’d put it the way he does: Signing Ordonez will make the Tigers better in the short run, but in three or four years the burdensome obligation to pay him will cripple them. It might obligate them to move Jeremy Bonderman. We’ll see about that, but Sheehan’s basic idea is right. (I don’t link to it because it’s a pay site.)