The following came in the mail today from BP after I signed up.
STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 2004 NL center fielders, by PECOTA projected VORP
Player, Team, VORP
Jim Edmonds, SLN, 34.0
Wily Pena, CIN, 26.7
Andruw Jones, ATL, 26.4
Mike Cameron, NYN, 25.6
Juan Pierre, FLO, 25.5
For more projections, check out the 2004 PECOTA cards:
Okay, so what’s striking is that they have Wily Mo Pena ranked as the second best centerfielder in the National League this year. When it comes to projections this a defining moment. If Pena turns out not to have a major league career, as I think he may not, there can be no justification for this projection. And if he does have a career, and it doesn’t start soon, the projection is also worthless.
I run the risk of turning into the BP police here, the sort of person who monitors the New York Times for inaccuracies, and I promise you that isn’t what I want to do. But I find it amusing that in the BP book they say of Pena’s PECOTA projection: “If Pena hits his PECOTA projections, it would be a shock.”
Nuff said.