Something Rob doesn’t note in this story, which may undercut its meaning (kind of like Raul Mondesi announcing in spring training each year that he’s lost weight and THIS time he’s serious) is that every year Livan Hernandez is better in the second half.
1st half 2nd half
2002 4.94 3.76
2001 6.07 4.20
2000 4.25 3.19
2003 5.09 3.70
I’m not a big believer in first half/second half splits, but I noted in the magazine this year that the oft-cited reason for Hernandez’s problems over the years have been the massive number of pitches he’s thrown since his rookie season. But the splits don’t support the idea that his problem is a tired arm.
One possibility is that the splits are random. It just so happens that he’s gotten better each year in the second half. It is also true that major league run production drops in September, when a lot of Triple-A players are called up and teams out of contention play out the string. That might account for some of it.
It’s possible that Rob’s right and that Hernandez has suddenly become a new and better pitcher by finding a consistent arm slot for all of his pitches. But for now, due to his history of streakiness, that is really just the sketchiest of conjectures.