January 15, 2003 – The Daily Prospectus: The Colon Trade
I’ve been holding off on writing about the Colon trade. It seemed for a while that all that needed to be said was going to be said, but it wasn’t. I read a Fantasy Baseball Review email log this morning in which nobody got it, in which nobody came close, and then this Baseball Prospectus analysis, which is better but misses the point, too.
I think.
I think the facts in this case match Peter Gammons’ story this week at ESPN best of all. The idea that the Yanks hoodwinked the Red Sox is overblown, the idea that Minaya screwed up is overblown, the idea that Kenny Williams was a genius is overblown. Try these facts on for size:
The Expos gave up a once-upon-a-time top prospect pitcher coming off a career year, a pitcher they couldn’t afford and everyone knew they couldn’t afford, and got in return a good veteran pitcher making the minimum.
The Yankees gave up one of their eight (read excess) starting pitchers, plus $2M, and got back a very good middle relief pitcher they could certainly use. Since Osuna makes less than what Hernandez will make in arbitration this year, it didn’t cost them the whole $2. In fact, the deal might actually save them money, though just a little, depending on how arbitration goes.
The White Sox gave up a good reliever, a valueless reliever, a worthless corner infielder and $2M (plus the Yankees’ $2M) for a former top prospect but generally disappointing pitcher coming off the best year of his career.
Clearly, what matters here is how good Colon pitches this year. Clearly, from what Theo Epstein was saying, the Red Sox didn’t get Colon because they wanted Vazquez. And they weren’t ready to jump all over Colon because they think he could be a problem.
Assuming the Yankees did save some money (which they save at a multiple because of the salary tax), it seems to me everyone benefits by this deal.
And no, Minaya may have not recouped what he paid for Colon, but the situation now is different than it was last summer. That doesn’t absolve him of the imbalance, and doesn’t mean he didn’t make mistakes (should they turn out to be so), but it does point out the difficulty of setting priorities when you don’t know if this is your last gasp or your next to last gasp. And when everyone else knows nearly as well what your situation is.
If he’s right, that the right guy to deal was Colon (and not Vazquez), then I think he did just fine. It seems to me he rather aggressively took a shot at the title when he had a chance (and wouldn’t you?), rather than playing is safe and mouthing whatever insulting pieties came to mind to explain away his inaction.
Now he’s doing it again, refusing to cede the division because without that what is there? That’s what I want to know.
Go Expos!