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MLB.com: Griffey Down, Out, 3-6 weeks

Ken Griffey Jr. is turning into a prime illustration of why you shouldn’t assume a guy is going to get into the Hall of Fame. Griffey may come back this year, and he may end up having a solid season, but his stars are still crossed at this point. And unless he starts playing regularly, all the great things that were predicted for him not so long ago will not come to pass.

Will he get back this year? It sounds like he probably will, but I would not count on it. The doctors are obliged to be rosy about the possibility of rehab working. The team and the player want to hear good news, too. The fact is that if in a month he’s still hobbled and they decide to cut his knee, the attempt to rehab (and the wearing of a brave face in the shadow of such darkness) will have cost Griffey and the Reds nothing.

Fantasy players are in a bind. Griffey’s value has plummetted, yet you may be able to get more for him now than he’s going to turn out to be worth six weeks from now. My suggestion: If you have a good team and can get a safer piece now for Griffey, someone who might keep you in contention, do it.

But if your team has problems that are going to be tough to solve, it may be best to stick with Griffey, who probably has the most upside of all the replacements available for him right now. But pick up Ruben Mateo if you can. He’s not a perfect player, but he’s got a lot of tools and has already had a little major league success in his career. He’s not a nobody.

Better yet, pick up Austin Kearns, too.