Dear RotoMan:
A friend in a fantasy league I am in offered me Livian Hernandez and Pedro Astacio for Manny Ramirez. I think it is a good deal, but everyone else in the league violently disagreed, and the commissioner vetoed the trade. What is your take on this trade, since you identified Astacio as a sleeper in last week’s column?
Some friend. Yes, indeed, I like Astacio this year, and I think he’s a good bet to succeed, in part because he’s very cheap. If his shoulder goes south or he can’t get anyone out, you can dump him without having done much harm to your club.
And front what I hear Livan Hernandez has lost weight and gotten into shape. So, off of that news and last night’s performance, he might be a guy to get, too. If he’s cheap enough.
But a funny thing happens when you’re trading a top-rung hitter for pitchers with potential: No matter how many you add they aren’t worth any more. So, if Ramirez for Astacio is unfair, there is little extra value to you if your “friend” adds Livan Hernandez. That’s because cheap guys with potential are a dime a dozen (or more like $3-$7 bucks), and a whole staff of them isn’t worth Manny Ramirez.
Here’s a good rule of thumb I’ve mentioned here before: If you’re trading away the best player in the deal, make sure you’re getting a lot of really good help from the players you’re getting. Too often we look at the multiple players we see as valuable because there are so many of them, but often that isn’t the case.