Rotoman:
Since there are only a handful of reliable closers in AL-only drafts, their value is going to sky-rocket. How much is too much to pay for Rivera, Folke, and Koch?
Any closers-in-waiting that you recommend a $1 flyer on this year?
I think it’s questionable that because they may be more reliable, the few known closers will go for more money. In fact, I think they’ll go for less money. Here’s why:
While relievers do help a roto team’s ERA and Ratio, their limited innings mute that effect. Much of a closer’s value is derived from his saves. When there are a lot of similarly valued relievers, it is easy to identify who is going to collect all the saves, and it behooves all the teams in a roto league to compete for them. Thus, closer prices are high.
When only a few closers can be identified, it is possible to identify where only a small percentage of saves are going to come from. Yet everyone knows that there will be a lot of saves generated in the major leagues this year. It then makes sense to go after less established relievers, who can be bought cheaply, and reserve resources for other categories. Thus, closer prices drop.
That doesn’t make it wrong to go after Rivera or Foulke, but to spend real resources to acquire them could prove crippling later.
As for the cheap guys, I like Luis Rivera, Jorge Julio, Travis Phelps, Bob File, Bob Howry, Steve Karsay, Lou Pote, Arthur Rhodes, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Chad Bradford, Luis Vizcaino, John Rocker (who won’t be that cheap). With the exception of Rocker, these guys are all attractive, yet shouldn’t go for more than a few bucks.