Mr. Man:
Do you think the winning score in a competitive fantasy league will be higher or lower? Here’s why I ask: in our very competitive league (ten-team, AL only 5X5 keeper), we haven’t had any one new for about four years. In that time, the winning score dropped from 83, to 80.5, to 77, finally to 70.5. Also, the winner the last two years had to wait until the last game was played to know if he beat out the competition; margins were 1.5 and 1 point.
The question is more than academic. I used to figure an average of third-place in each category was a good goal to draft for a winner. Now, though, that likely is too high. Or, maybe I can punt one (or two) categories and still win, or, at least, not draft for all categories on draft day (auction, $260 limit, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers), and pick up what I missed later in trades.
What have you noticed, if anything, along those lines?
“Low-Scoring Winner”
Sure. A few points:
The more people play together the more they learn how to play each other, which usually means the standings are tighter. In the American Dreams League the year before last we had a three way tie for second place, and a first place team just two points ahead. We haven’t had a new owner in seven years.
It doesn’t always work out that way. Sometimes somebody gets lucky or does something really smart and they run away with it. But, in general, the more people play together the more likely the results are going to be tight.
And the tighter the results, the fewer points it takes to win, the better the situation is for dumping a category. I’ve been writing about this a lot this week and I hope I’ve made it clear: Dump a category (or even two) in competitive leagues.
In a league where one team or another wins all the categories and scores 104 points, dumping a category is a stupid idea.