I think this link MLB Projected Stats will only work if you’re a RotoWire subscriber. It takes you to a page where they list changes they’ve made to the MLB projections that I did for the magazine.
You may not find it as interesting as I do, since for me it is a direct comment on the assumptions I made for the magazine. Some of these have changed: I projected Kelvim Escobar as a starter. It appears he’s going to be the Blue Jays’ closer this year. RotoWire fixes that.
Others are matters of opinion. The first change they made was to reduce Juan Encarnacion’s “counting stats,” which I had projected pretty modestly: 57 runs and RBI, 13 hr, 11 SB in 453 AB. We’ll learn a lot more during spring training, and the Reds have a lot of outfielders, but those numbers project out to $6. If Encarnacion goes for less than $10 you have to be all over him.
They’ve bumped Ivan Rodriguez up from 400 to 440 AB based on recent reports. I’m not sure what difference it really makes, but the last two years have amply demonstrated the danger of hoping that an aging catcher who plays every day won’t get hurt.
In the magazine I tout Mitch Meluskey strongly, but don’t give him a projection. I’m not sure what happened there, but my friends at RW fix that and reduce PT for Brandon Inge. They should also cut Javier Cardona while they’re at it.
I could go on and on. Jeff Cirillo gets downgraded, so does Todd Zeile! They boost Mark Johnson and bump Josh Paul. About that one I think they’re wrong, though I know Johnson is starting to show up on a lot of sleeper lists this year.
The bottom line is the projections in the magazine are really rough because of necessity they had to be done early. And they need this kind of massaging. You’ll find my massaging at rototouts.com in Statland a little later this spring, and at mlb.com before the season starts.