Would you trade Ichiro Suzuki $27 and Jerry Hairston $8 for Magglio
Ordonez $33 and Kelvim Escobar $1? I am in a 4×4 AL $260 League.
By my reckoning Hairston and Ordonez are near their prices, which if I do the algebra right means this is a cheap Ichiro deal for a very cheap Escobar.
Escobar is expected to be the Blue Jay’s closer, a role he performed adequately as a rookie sensation in 1997. Since then he’s bounced around, relieving and starting. When he’s been good he’s been effective, but there have been a lot of down times, too. Last year he pitched well as a starter in the second half, which perhaps explains why the Jays have decided to make him a closer.
On top of all that indecision (for instance, after his rookie success, why exactly wasn’t he made the closer in 1998?), there are questions about his health. He suffered with numb fingers in September last year. The Jays attribute it to fatigue, but isn’t that what you’d hope for if you didn’t really know?
Ichiro, on the other hand, is coming off a great season, and is a bona fide steals and AVG producer. If he were available in a draft his price would be better than $40. For it to be a better deal for you to keep Escobar, his price would have to be more than $15. At least.
While I think you can expect, assuming he’s healthy all spring, that Escobar’s uninflated price will be more, somewhere about $17, there’s far more chance that he won’t earn his price than that Ichiro won’t earn his.
To give up a blue-chipper, you’ve got to get a blue-chipper, is a good rule of thumb. In this case, stand pat.