hi peter. can you please give me your opinion on these guys for this year and perhaps for the future?
brandon duckworth, roy halladay, russ ortiz and randy wolf
these guys in all likelihood will be available this year. thank you for your time.
Here goes:
Duckworth has looked pretty solid so far. He’s not overpowering but he doesn’t rely on finesse either. I’d be wary of him this year, he has yet to go through the league a second time, but if he isn’t found out he should become one of those solid mid-rotation guys who have one or two very good years.
Halladay finished strong last year and is generally considered to be one of this year’s best breakouts. His problems in the past were the result of his nibbling and being fearful of challenging hitters. The signs are there in his K/BB ratio that he’s gone beyond those problems, but I think it’s going to cost a whole lot more to get him than he’s proven he’s worth. If I’m wrong to be concerned his future, both near and long term, is very bright.
Ortiz took a solid step forward last year. He’s a step or two ahead of Halladay, which is why I’m pretty confident he isn’t going to backslide. In other words, Halladay is a risk. Ortiz may not become a star but he’s a solid bet in a pitcher’s park.
Wolf has pitched a lot of innings in the major leagues at a young age. If his arm really holds up his potential is great, but he has some work to do to prove he’s going to make it. I’d rate him ahead of Halladay at this point, but a good step behind Ortiz.
The bottom line is that all these guys didn’t do much in the first half last year and came on in the second half. That’s not a reliable indicator of future success, though it surely doesn’t mean that they’re going to fail. My best advice is take the best guys who go cheapest. Paying more for them only means they’re going to have to do even better to be worth it.