I am in an eight man Points FB league where we get one keeper from the previous year. Whatever keeper we choose we lose the round that the player was drafted the year before. I have to choose between Nolan Arenado and lose my 7th round pick or Corey Seager and lose my 23rd round pick. We can keep them for years to come but the round goes down every year they are kept. For instance, next year I would lose my 6th round for Arenado. What is your opinion??
“Days of Future Past”
Holy cow, there’s some soothsaying involved here.
Nolan Arenado in the 7th, even in an eight team league, is awfully good for this year. And really, in the 6th round next year he’ll be really good, too.
But Corey Seager is one of the top prospects at shortstop, an even shallower position than third base, and the prospect of having him well below price is obviously appealing. Hence your question.
So, first off, the easy answer is that if you have a competitive team this year, keep Arenado. He is a great keep and should be much more productive than Seager this year, and in all likelihood next year and the year after, too.
Now, it’s hard to imagine that in a league with one keep any team is out of it in any year, but if you want to take the long view you do have to consider keeping Seager at 23. After all, you’ll still be getting early valuable picks, including a 7th rounder, which in a league this size is roughly Top 50.
Seager likely won’t be as helpful this year or the next, but as he establishes himself he has the potential to be a Top-3 shortstop for many years to come. What you have to decide is whether it’s worth taking the downgrade this year for that sizable discount in the future.
I would lean toward Arenado, the bird in the proverbial hand, who is only 25 this year. He’s mature and ready now, and while he may not get any better, he’s plenty good enough to be a big plus in the seventh round.