PECOTA AL Stolen Base Leaders 2008

This was in the Baseball Prospectus newsletter, which comes via email every day.

STAT OF THE DAY

Top 5 2008 AL Stolen Base Leaders, by PECOTA Projected SB

Player, Team, SB

Freddy Guzman, TEX, 37
Carl Crawford, TBA, 35
Brian Roberts, BAL, 35
Chone Figgins, LAA, 33
Bradley Coon, LAA, 33

What you’ve got to like about PECOTA is that it finds stuff. Bradley Coon was a 25 year old in Double-A last year who stole 24 bases in 36 attempts. The Angels’ outfield is already crowded, as is their infield. This slap-hitting oldie with moderate speed seems an unlikely guy to see any major league playing time.

Freddy Guzman is no longer with the Rangers. He was copped in the Rule 5 draft last December and is hoping to snag the job as Curtis Granderson’s backup this summer in Detroit. He’s a real burner whose only problems are that he’s had a hard time making it to the majors, and hasn’t hit in his two brief trials. He’s got a decent eye but no power, so his game rests on his ability to steal first and then second.

The odds of either Guzman or Coons ending up in the Top 5 in the AL at this point are laughable, which is why I like BP’s picks. If they alert you to a player with potential who is for some reason off the radar, they’ve done their job.

One thought on “PECOTA AL Stolen Base Leaders 2008

  1. Like many mechanical projectors, PECOTA doesn’t know what the hell to do about stolen bases. Their projections are typically too low for the established major leaguers like Ichiro Suzuki and Juan Pierre, who wind up running rings around PECOTA. It’s useful, as you point out, to find out about Freddy Guzman, but nearly worthless if you’re trying to establish a $ value for Jose Reyes using PECOTA’s projections.

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